The share of selected final provider predictions no more than five minutes early or late relative to schedule; arrivals are not independently measured.
- 定義
- The share of selected final provider predictions no more than five minutes early or late relative to schedule; arrivals are not independently measured.
- 計算式
- 100 × COUNT(|settled prediction delay seconds| ≤ 300) ÷ COUNT(settled final provider predictions), rounded to one decimal place.
- 単位
- percent of selected final feed predictions
- 対象
- One last eligible provider prediction per scheduled trip, stop and Toronto calendar date; no independently measured arrival.
- 測定期間
- Route summaries: rolling 30 days. Route-hour evidence: recent 14-day scan.
- 対象範囲
- Matched published predictions only. Numerator and denominator describe selected final feed predictions, not measured arrivals or all scheduled or operated trips.
- 公開の適格性
- Regular comparable bus routes; a route-hour needs at least 100 observations across at least three service days. Rail and purpose-specific routes are excluded from ordinary rankings.
- 対象範囲
- Route summaries use a rolling 30-day window. Recurring route-hour evidence uses the recent 14-day scan and is published only with at least 100 observations over at least three service days.
- この数字からわかること
- Schedule difference in final eligible feed predictions, not independently measured punctuality. It is not OC Transpo’s 99.5% service-delivery target, a cancellation rate, or proof that every scheduled trip ran.
- 情報源と識別子
- 方法 · Settled provider-prediction reliability method
last-prediction-within-ten-minutes-v1 - 現在のAPI · Current network reliability public API
reliability-evidence
- 方法 · Settled provider-prediction reliability method
実装の状況
- ソース候補
- このソース候補で実装済みです。
- 公開済みの作成物
- 修正した指標バージョンはソースに反映されています。公開の本番環境への配備と確認は記録されていません。
この数字を引用する前に、状況をお読みください。
The final provider-prediction calculation is implemented in this source candidate. Public production verification for this corrected version is still not recorded.
除外
Predictions more than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival are excluded, and delays outside ±90 minutes are removed as timetable-wrap outliers.
OC Transpo rail is excluded because the operator does not publish realtime rail observations in the feed used by this method.
不確実性と解釈
The result describes matched published predictions, not every operated trip. Feed gaps and trip-matching limits can reduce coverage.
Current network evidence is recomputed and is not stored here as an immutable historical snapshot.
現在のデータ根拠
変更履歴
| 改訂 | 日付 | 記録の状態 | 理由 | 人による承認 | 本番環境への展開 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| correction:reliability:2026-08-04:settled-v1:revision-1correction:reliability:2026-08-04:settled-v1 | 情報源は完了、本番反映は保留中 | 以前の方法では、繰り返された予測を、それぞれ独立した到着として数えていました。また、大幅に早い出発を定刻どおりとして扱っていました。修正後の方法では、各到着から十分以内の最後の予測を残します。また、両側五分の時間枠を使います。 | 指名された独立検証者の確認待ちです。承認の根拠は記録されていません。 | 保留中です。本番リリースの識別子も確認時刻も記録されていません。 |