What we saw on one trip, on one day. Facts, never a reason.
For one trip on one day we show what our own records saw, and what was in effect around it. We never say why it happened: a reason needs a test we have not built, so we do not offer one.
- 確認できたこと測定済み
- Its vehicle’s earlier trip測定済み
- What the operator said測定済み
- In effect around itContext only
What each part shows
Whether the trip started late, whether it ended late, and where the delay grew from one timepoint to the next, when it grew by a noticeable amount. Late means more than 5 minutes after the timetable.
If the same vehicle ran the block’s previous trip late, we show whether the break between the two trips absorbed the lateness. If not, some of it was carried into this trip.
A cancelled notice, whether a vehicle was seen on the trip anyway (the notice was contradicted), and any stops the operator marked as skipped.
Service alerts, the day’s weather and events at venues near this trip’s stops. Each one is present or absent. None is offered as the reason.
In effect, never because
Something being in effect near a trip is not a reason for it. The page never joins the two. A reason for one trip would need a test with a published back-test, and we have not built one.
What counts as in effect
- Alerts: official service alerts active at the time that name this trip’s route or stops. We only hold alerts from the day we began keeping them. Before that, the page says not recorded.
- Weather: one record per day, not per hour, so it can only say that the day had heavy rain or snow, extreme cold or heat, or high wind.
- Events: events at venues near this trip’s stops, counted from before the event’s start until after its end. The page lists the title, the kind, the venue and the times we hold.
Attendance is not recorded
No source we use records how many people went to an event. So the page never says an event was big or small, and never ties a delay to a crowd.
データの出どころ
- 測定済みOC Transpo and STO live bus positions
- 測定済みOC Transpo and STO trip updates
- 測定済みPublished timetables, with each trip’s vehicle block
- Context only公式の運行情報アラート
- Context onlyWeather record, one row per day
- Context onlyEvent listings with their venues
計算の方法
- We find the trip’s stop visits that we could judge, and the delay at each.
- We note whether it started late and ended late, and the step between two timepoints where the delay grew most, when it grew by a noticeable amount.
- We look at the vehicle’s previous trip on the same block, and whether the break between the two absorbed its lateness.
- We read the operator’s notices for the trip: cancelled, contradicted by a vehicle we saw, or stops skipped.
- We list what was in effect around the trip. A part we cannot read says so, and the other parts still answer.
An example
One weekday trip. This is the shape of an account, in words, with no numbers.
- Started定刻通り測定済み
- 終了遅れ測定済み
- Delay grew mostBetween two stops in the middle of the route測定済み
- Its vehicle’s earlier tripEnded late, and the break did not absorb all of it測定済み
- 運行会社のお知らせなし測定済み
- In effect nearbyAn event at a venue near one of its stopsContext only
The last row is context. It is not the reason the trip was late.
確かさの度合い
The first three parts are measured from our own records, so they carry the limits of those records. A trip we never saw is not measured, and the first trip of a block has no earlier trip to compare. The in-effect part is recorded context, with no claim that it caused anything.
限界
- A tracker that is switched off can make a trip look unseen.
- Weather is day-level only.
- Alerts are recorded only from the day we began keeping them.
- Events appear only if we hold a listing and a venue for them, and only from the day we began capturing listings.
- A part we cannot read says not measured or not recorded, never an empty answer that looks like “nothing”.
What would change the account
- More of the trip being seen, or a correction to how a visit was judged.
- A new alert, weather record or event listing arriving late.
- A change to the method. Each change is dated on this page.
Check a number
Anyone can send us a case. City staff and councillors’ offices are answered first. We run it ourselves, from the raw record, and send back the figure and the working in words.
What to include
- The route or ward
- The date or month
- The figure you saw, with a link or a screenshot
- What you expected, and why (optional)
It goes to us through the contact form.
We run the case ourselves and reply with our figure and the steps in words. If we find an error, it goes on the corrections page. We do not send the formula or its settings, so a figure cannot be tuned for or against.
数字の出どころ
- OC Transpo and STO live bus positions
- OC Transpo and STO trip updates
- 公開された時刻表（日付つき）
- 公式の運行情報アラート
- Weather record, one row per day
- Event listings with their venues
方法のバージョンと変更履歴
公表した月の数値は変わりません。方法を改訂しても、過去の月は算出時の方法のままです。
- バージョン 1 · 2026年10月30日. First published. What we saw on one trip on one day, and what was in effect around it. Facts, never a reason.