Will it show up? Four honest answers about one trip.
For a scheduled trip at your stop we say one of four things. We say cancelled only when the operator says so and nothing is on the trip. For everything else we are less sure, and the page says how sure.
- 운행 취소측정됨
- Likely not running예상
- 운행 중측정됨
- Not tracked측정하지 않음
The four answers
The operator says the trip will not run, or that it will skip this stop, and no vehicle is on the trip. This is the operator’s word, not ours.
The operator has said nothing, but nothing is on the trip close to its time, or its vehicle has moved on to the next trip. We never use the word cancelled here, and the chance comes with a wide range.
A vehicle is reporting on this trip now.
We cannot see this trip yet: it is early, only predicted, the feed is too thin or there is no timetable for it. It does not mean the bus will come, or that it will not.
When a cancellation notice is contradicted
Sometimes the operator posts a cancelled notice and a vehicle is on the trip anyway. We show Running and say the notice was contradicted. A notice on its own is not enough.
정보의 출처
- 측정됨OC Transpo and STO trip updates
- 측정됨실시간 버스 위치
- 측정됨Published timetables, with each trip’s vehicle block
계산 방법
- We check what the operator has said about the trip: a cancelled notice, a skipped stop or a prediction.
- We check whether a vehicle is reporting on the trip now.
- If the notice and the vehicle disagree, the vehicle wins, and we say the notice was contradicted.
- With no notice and no vehicle, we look at how close the trip is to its time, and at the vehicle’s earlier and next trips. The closer to departure with nothing seen, the lower the chance.
- We show the chance as a wide range, marked as an early estimate. When the feed is too thin to judge, we say Not tracked instead of guessing.
A trip over time
One weekday trip, nothing posted by the operator and no vehicle yet. The chance that it shows up falls as its time passes with nothing seen. The bars show the idea, not figures.
얼마나 확실한가요
Cancelled and Running are measured. Likely not running is an early estimate: we have not yet tested it against past days, so it always carries a wide range and says so. Before it is shown as a plain figure we will test it day by day against what happened, and publish how it did.
It is a chance, not a promise.
한계
- A tracker that is switched off can look like a bus that will not come.
- A trip with a vehicle on it counts as running, even if the vehicle later stops reporting. We then say Not tracked.
- Short turns and partly cancelled trips are only suspected, never counted as cancelled.
- Trips that share one vehicle are not independent, so we never multiply their chances.
- Service alerts are shown to you, but they do not decide a trip’s answer.
What would change the answer
- The operator posts or withdraws a notice.
- A vehicle starts reporting on the trip, or stops.
- The feed gets thinner, which turns an answer into Not tracked.
- The method changes. Each change is dated on this page.
Check a number
Anyone can send us a case. City staff and councillors’ offices are answered first. We run it ourselves, from the raw record, and send back the figure and the working in words.
What to include
- The route or ward
- The date or month
- The figure you saw, with a link or a screenshot
- What you expected, and why (optional)
It goes to us through the contact form.
We run the case ourselves and reply with our figure and the steps in words. If we find an error, it goes on the corrections page. We do not send the formula or its settings, so a figure cannot be tuned for or against.
숫자의 출처
- OC Transpo and STO trip updates
- OC Transpo and STO live bus positions
- 게시된 시간표, 날짜 포함
방법 버전과 변경 기록
발표된 월별 자료는 바뀌지 않습니다. 방법이 바뀌어도 지난 달은 계산할 때 쓴 방법을 그대로 유지합니다.
- 버전 1 · 2026년 10월 30일. First published. Four answers about one trip: cancelled, likely not running, running, or not tracked.