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August 2026 · OC Transpo

76.8% of bus arrival predictions were within five minutes. Saturdays were the weak spot.

Partial data · 28 of 31 days

Every calendar day is accounted for: 28 of 31 days were measured and the remaining days, if any, have a recorded explanation. Publication status is shown separately below.

No comparison with July yetHow we measure this
Within five minutes2,592,479 predictions
76.8%
Predictions checked2,592,4791,989,768 within · 602,711 outside
Best day87.3%Sunday, August 23Sun, Aug 23
Worst day65.2%Saturday, August 29Sat, Aug 29

Every day in August

Share within five minutes, each day
  • Weekday
  • Saturday
  • Sunday or holidaySunday / holiday
  • Partial dataPartial

August 7 to 9 and 26 are not counted (too few records from either operator). August 13 to 23 and 28 to 30 count only the operator with enough records.

Where routes land

The largest group, 41 routes, sits at 80 to 100%. 3 routes fall below 60%.
  • Under 20%0
  • 20 to 40%0
  • 40 to 60%3
  • 60 to 80%25
  • 80 to 100%41

69 routes had enough data to rank. 14 more are listed separately: too little data or special service.

See the 3 routes below 60%

Every prediction, counted

Within five minutes
1,989,768
Early or late by more
602,711

Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.

Ask about this report

Answers use only this report’s numbers and say when the data cannot answer.

Ask about this report
How we measure this

We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.

This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.

Full method, coverage and original edition
Full evidence for this report

Findings by remedy, comparisons, every listed route, coverage, cancellations and how to cite this edition.

Calendar coverage complete · Frozen publication

Ottawa · OC Transpo · August 2026

Briefing for decision makers

Download this month (CSV)

Use this page to ask focused questions of the operator. The figures describe saved bus prediction evidence; they are not an audited count of physical arrivals or all scheduled trips.

Finding to examine

12 of 12 routes with a supported finding point to test more scheduled running time. Review the route-hours and supporting samples below before changing service.

Request from the operator

Provide stop-arrival or dispatch records for the flagged route-hours, the matching timetable version, and an operational explanation. Test cost, fleet, labour and transfer effects before adopting a fix.

Evidence and limits

2,592,479 final eligible bus predictions across 87 routes in this scorecard. Regional calendar coverage: 28 of 31 days with figures. Physical arrival times were not independently verified.

Questions for the record

  1. Do operator vehicle and dispatch records confirm the route-hour pattern shown here?
  2. Which scheduled trips did not run, and how complete were the public cancellation notices?
  3. What timetable, vehicle-position or arrival data can be released to validate bus results and make rail reporting possible?

The CSV exports the full month, including both operators, coverage and method. The operator selector changes the scorecard, cancellation subtotal and route findings; the daily series and calendar coverage remain regional, as do comparisons with other months.

How Ottawa · OC Transpo is doing

These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.

Measured over 1,695 route-hours. 90 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.

Scheduling

Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.

Who can fix it
A service planner
What it costs
Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.

Predictions close to the timetable

78.5%

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.

Route-hours with repeated late predictions

313of 1,695

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.

Route-hours with early predictions

51of 1,695

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.

Typical predicted delay

4.1min

The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.

Operations

Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.

Who can fix it
Operations, and often the road itself
What it costs
Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.

Prediction gap below twenty minutes

96.6%

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.

Route-hours with wide prediction gaps

58of 1,695

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.

Typical prediction gap

24.5min

The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.

Day by day

This daily series covers both operators, including when one operator is selected above. Each bar is one calendar day. A month reported as a single percentage cannot tell you whether it was uniformly average or fine except for one bad week.

Bars are scaled between 67% and 86%. Weekend days are marked. Service levels and the routes represented can differ from weekdays. The thin line under each bar is how much of that day this site actually measured, against the best-measured day of the month. A short line means the percentage above it rests on far less.

Open the day-by-day data table
Daily prediction punctuality, eligible-prediction count and relative evidence coverage
Service dateEvidence stateWithin five minutesEligible provider predictionsRelative coverageWeather
Aug 1, 2026Measured69.9%173,38565% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 2, 2026Measured75.1%147,61355% of the best-measured dayRain 36.1 mm
Aug 3, 2026Measured77%171,27264% of the best-measured dayRain 15.6 mm
Aug 4, 2026Measured76.9%230,03986% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 5, 2026Measured75.1%267,740100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 6, 2026Measured78.1%268,471100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 7, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s—0—No notable weather
Aug 8, 2026No figure; explained gap———Gusts to 61 km/h, Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 9, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 10, 2026Measured79.9%94,56435% of the best-measured dayRain 23.5 mm, Gusts to 89 km/h
Aug 11, 2026Measured79.7%197,33674% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 12, 2026Measured79.2%178,34066% of the best-measured dayRain 21.9 mm, Gusts to 107 km/h
Aug 13, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77.6%264,619—Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 14, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.2%89,175—No notable weather
Aug 15, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s74.6%43,333—No notable weather
Aug 16, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86.1%43,051—No notable weather
Aug 17, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86%82,612—No notable weather
Aug 18, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s80%77,859—No notable weather
Aug 19, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.9%66,916—No notable weather
Aug 20, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.5%88,508—No notable weather
Aug 21, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.4%89,850—No notable weather
Aug 22, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s79.9%42,913—No notable weather
Aug 23, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s87.3%27,406—No notable weather
Aug 24, 2026Measured79.3%153,97257% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 25, 2026Measured81.8%224,97084% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.4 km
Aug 26, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 27, 2026Measured83.4%132,90650% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 28, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77%25,198—No notable weather
Aug 29, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s65.2%126,206—No notable weather
Aug 30, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.8%39,079—No notable weather
Aug 31, 2026Measured81.5%139,29152% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.2 km
Open the day-by-day data table
Daily prediction punctuality, eligible-prediction count and relative evidence coverage
Service dateEvidence stateWithin five minutesEligible provider predictionsRelative coverageWeather
Aug 1, 2026Measured69.9%173,38565% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 2, 2026Measured75.1%147,61355% of the best-measured dayRain 36.1 mm
Aug 3, 2026Measured77%171,27264% of the best-measured dayRain 15.6 mm
Aug 4, 2026Measured76.9%230,03986% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 5, 2026Measured75.1%267,740100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 6, 2026Measured78.1%268,471100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 7, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s—0—No notable weather
Aug 8, 2026No figure; explained gap———Gusts to 61 km/h, Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 9, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 10, 2026Measured79.9%94,56435% of the best-measured dayRain 23.5 mm, Gusts to 89 km/h
Aug 11, 2026Measured79.7%197,33674% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 12, 2026Measured79.2%178,34066% of the best-measured dayRain 21.9 mm, Gusts to 107 km/h
Aug 13, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77.6%264,619—Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 14, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.2%89,175—No notable weather
Aug 15, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s74.6%43,333—No notable weather
Aug 16, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86.1%43,051—No notable weather
Aug 17, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86%82,612—No notable weather
Aug 18, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s80%77,859—No notable weather
Aug 19, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.9%66,916—No notable weather
Aug 20, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.5%88,508—No notable weather
Aug 21, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.4%89,850—No notable weather
Aug 22, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s79.9%42,913—No notable weather
Aug 23, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s87.3%27,406—No notable weather
Aug 24, 2026Measured79.3%153,97257% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 25, 2026Measured81.8%224,97084% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.4 km
Aug 26, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 27, 2026Measured83.4%132,90650% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 28, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77%25,198—No notable weather
Aug 29, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s65.2%126,206—No notable weather
Aug 30, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.8%39,079—No notable weather
Aug 31, 2026Measured81.5%139,29152% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.2 km

Bars are scaled between 67% and 86%. Weekend days are marked. Service levels and the routes represented can differ from weekdays. The thin line under each bar is how much of that day this site actually measured, against the best-measured day of the month. A short line means the percentage above it rests on far less.

Best day
Aug 27, 2026 · 83.4%
Worst day
Aug 1, 2026 · 69.9%
Weather that day: No notable weather.

Weather is shown for context. It is not used to adjust, excuse or score any figure on this page.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, daily and hourly climate data for Ottawa International Airport (climate ID 6106001). A climate day runs midnight to midnight, local standard time, so it can differ by an hour from the service day in summer. Historical climate data ↗

What should change

Worked out from this month’s eligible provider predictions and ranked by the sample they affect. Each line says what the feed evidence shows, when, and which operator can review it.

Test more scheduled running time

Test additional scheduled running time for these hours. This pattern supports the scenario, but fleet, labour, recovery, transfer and cost effects require operator validation.

  • 1210:00 to 23:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    57,797 eligible predictions · 13 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 712:00 to 00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    54,088 eligible predictions · 12 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 611:00 to 23:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    52,897 eligible predictions · 12 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1807:00 to 00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    35,142 eligible predictions · 17 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 2011:00 to 00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    24,434 eligible predictions · 13 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1415:00 to 00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    24,650 eligible predictions · 9 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1409:00 to 14:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    21,261 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1112:00 to 16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    18,551 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1913:00 to 22:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    14,669 eligible predictions · 9 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 6307:00 to 14:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    16,007 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 7011:00 to 16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    14,666 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 6315:00 to 22:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    15,629 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 5710:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    16,804 eligible predictions · 8 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 5112:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    13,246 eligible predictions · 6 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 5719:00 to 23:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    7,708 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 2005:00 to 10:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    8,288 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1120:00 to 23:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    8,343 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1117:00 to 19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    7,193 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 5707:00 to 09:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,620 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 7021:00 to 23:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    4,401 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 5107:00 to 09:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    4,225 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 700:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,398 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1909:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,048 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 5123:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    576 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 5 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 1800:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    516 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

Something other than the timetable

The prediction spread does not support a running-time change by itself. Test traffic, boarding load, crossings, terminal dispatch, vehicle assignment and operator availability against operational records; those cause data are not available here.

  • 2014:00 to 18:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 27 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    7,218 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 27 min later than the median

  • 1416:00 to 18:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 22 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    6,902 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 22 min later than the median

  • 615:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    5,016 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

  • 7014:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 20 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    2,617 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 20 min later than the median

  • 5718:00 to 20:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 25 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    3,813 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 25 min later than the median

  • 1116:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    3,572 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

  • 1817:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 22 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    1,828 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 22 min later than the median

  • 7013:00

    At 13:00, 50 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 72 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    2,526 eligible predictions · 50% against 72% the rest of the day

  • 1821:00

    At 21:00, 32 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 56 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    2,209 eligible predictions · 32% against 56% the rest of the day

  • 1915:00

    At 15:00, 40 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 65 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    1,734 eligible predictions · 40% against 65% the rest of the day

Something other than the timetable, at night

The late-hour pattern does not establish a cause. Test terminal holds, prior-trip lateness, vehicle assignment, operator availability and any overnight traffic event against operational records; those records are not available here.

  • 622:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 21 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    2,865 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 21 min later than the median

  • 2023:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    1,356 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

  • 5122:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    1,601 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 1 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

  • 2000:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    409 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 1 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

  • 601:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 45 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    724 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · 95th-percentile prediction 45 min later than the median

Not covered here

  • Whether scheduled trips actually ran. Provider predictions do not establish trip delivery; that requires separate evidence.
  • Whether eligible provider predictions imply even or bunched spacing on frequent routes. Measured over a recent rolling window, which cannot be reconstructed for this closed month.

Against other months · both operators

The month before

July 2026 was not measured by this site.

Matched prediction comparison

This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

Previous complete calendar month · 2026-07-01–2026-07-31

Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

Current

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

Baseline

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing

Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing

    Timetable feed versions: — / —

    The same month last year

    August 2025 was not measured by this site.

    Matched prediction comparison

    This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

    Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

    Same complete calendar month last year · 2025-08-01–2025-08-31

    Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

    Current

    Eligible raw rate: —

    Matched comparison rate: —

    — / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

    Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

    Baseline

    Eligible raw rate: —

    Matched comparison rate: —

    — / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

    Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

    A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing

    Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

    Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing

      Timetable feed versions: — / —

      Furthest from the timetable in August 2026

      The routes with the lowest share of eligible final predictions within five minutes of the timetable. A low figure does not establish the cause; inspect the route evidence before drawing conclusions.

      • 1852.7%37,924 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 2054.8%35,528 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 1458.9%61,812 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 6362%41,693 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 1962.7%30,211 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 763%88,616 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 1264.6%84,307 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 665.1%82,081 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 6265.2%35,258 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 5766.5%41,290 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days

      Closest to the timetable in August 2026

      The routes with the highest share of eligible final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable. All use the same route class, evidence threshold and period. This is a relative ranking, not an operator target or measured arrival rate.

      • 15395.4%2,779 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 9394.1%14,140 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 6793.5%13,092 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 19793.4%2,251 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 4593.3%9,752 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 16292%8,289 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 13891.5%10,200 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 18991.3%22,924 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 17391.1%21,867 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days
      • 3590.9%22,204 eligible trip-stop predictions · 15 of 28 days

      Prediction sample, but not enough of the month

      These routes had eligible provider predictions on fewer than half the days with prediction evidence this month. Those predictions count toward the network figure above, but the routes stay out of the rankings because their sample covers only part of the month.

      • 7361.6%15,331 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 6079.2%12,950 eligible trip-stop predictions · 13 of 28 days
      • 1584.5%11,593 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 9278.6%10,917 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 4383.6%8,126 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 1368.9%6,606 eligible trip-stop predictions · 12 of 28 days
      • 3276.5%3,663 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 6669.4%3,307 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 1768.4%2,737 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 11776.8%2,485 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 19885.5%2,481 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 2360.3%2,410 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 2692.9%2,348 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 18788.5%1,450 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days

      Cancellation records saved

      These are saved operator records that a trip was cancelled or deleted. Repeated updates to the same trip and notice type count once; one trip can have both types. A later update may change its status. This is separate from the timetable comparison.

      What counts as cancelled, and why trips are cancelled

      Retained records
      182
      Ottawa · OC Transpo
      182
      Gatineau · STO
      48

      Records were saved on 4 service dates in this month. Daily archive coverage has not been verified, so this is not a complete monthly cancellation total. Earliest saved record in the archive: Aug 28, 2026.

      Bus results only: where is the O-Train?

      The O-Train is not included in these figures. This monthly scorecard is calculated from bus stop-time predictions saved from the operators’ public feeds.

      Otranspo also tracks live bus positions, trip updates and cancellation notices to guide riders. This report uses a narrower historical dataset: the last eligible operator prediction for each scheduled bus stop visit, compared with the timetable. Those records have not been independently checked against a physical stop arrival.

      The public feed used for this report provides no O-Train arrival predictions or live train positions. A comparable rail scorecard needs train observations or predictions with a documented method; the published train timetable alone cannot supply one.

      Calendar coverage complete

      Every calendar day is accounted for: 28 of 31 days were measured and the remaining days, if any, have a recorded explanation. Publication status is shown separately below.

      Publication status

      Frozen publication

      Published on Oct 4, 2026, 3:13 p.m. under monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v15. This version is stored as a snapshot and will not be recomputed when the method or source data changes.

      This month is published from route days built with settled-route-histogram-v1: one final provider prediction per trip, stop and Toronto service date. The newer v2 build, which keeps each trip instance separate, cannot be applied to this month because its recorded predictions do not carry trip-instance identifiers. Comparisons with other months are withheld for the same reason.

      This edition replaces the one published under monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v14. Only partly captured days changed: an operator's day captured at under a quarter of its busiest day, or overlapped for an hour or more by a timetable mismatch in its live feed, is now left out of the totals and marked partly captured instead of counted as service. The earlier edition is kept unchanged. Earlier edition (CSV)

      Days behind these figures

      Days measured
      28 of 31
      Days with no eligible settled prediction
      3
      Days with no record
      0

      Days without figures

      • Aug 8, 2026No eligible provider prediction was settled on this day, so there is nothing to count.
      • Aug 9, 2026No eligible provider prediction was settled on this day, so there is nothing to count.
      • Aug 26, 2026No eligible provider prediction was settled on this day, so there is nothing to count.

      Buses only. The feed used here supplies no O‑Train arrival predictions or live train positions; rail is excluded from every figure on this page.

      Citing this page

      OTranspo, service report for August 2026, settled Oct 4, 2026, 3:13 p.m.. https://otranspo.ca/en/insights/reports/2026-08?operator=oc_transpo

      Figures settled
      Oct 4, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
      Method
      monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v15

      The download carries the same coverage statement and the same caveats as this page.

      Download this month (CSV)How these figures are produced