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August 2026 · STO

83.2% of bus arrival predictions were within five minutes. Saturdays were the weak spot.

Partial data · 28 of 31 days

Every calendar day is accounted for: 28 of 31 days were measured and the remaining days, if any, have a recorded explanation. Publication status is shown separately below.

No comparison with July yetHow we measure this
Within five minutes894,145 predictions
83.2%
Predictions checked894,145744,373 within · 149,772 outside
Best day87.3%Sunday, August 23Sun, Aug 23
Worst day65.2%Saturday, August 29Sat, Aug 29

Every day in August

Share within five minutes, each day
  • Weekday
  • Saturday
  • Sunday or holidaySunday / holiday
  • Partial dataPartial

August 7 to 9 and 26 are not counted (too few records from either operator). August 13 to 23 and 28 to 30 count only the operator with enough records.

Where routes land

The largest group, 19 routes, sits at 80 to 100%. No route falls below 60%.
  • Under 20%0
  • 20 to 40%0
  • 40 to 60%0
  • 60 to 80%6
  • 80 to 100%19

25 routes had enough data to rank. 29 more are listed separately: too little data or special service.

Every prediction, counted

Within five minutes
744,373
Early or late by more
149,772

Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.

Ask about this report

Answers use only this report’s numbers and say when the data cannot answer.

Ask about this report
How we measure this

We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.

This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.

Full method, coverage and original edition
Full evidence for this report

Findings by remedy, comparisons, every listed route, coverage, cancellations and how to cite this edition.

Calendar coverage complete · Frozen publication

Gatineau · STO · August 2026

Briefing for decision makers

Download this month (CSV)

Use this page to ask focused questions of the operator. The figures describe saved bus prediction evidence; they are not an audited count of physical arrivals or all scheduled trips.

Finding to examine

12 of 12 routes with a supported finding point to test more scheduled running time. Review the route-hours and supporting samples below before changing service.

Request from the operator

Provide stop-arrival or dispatch records for the flagged route-hours, the matching timetable version, and an operational explanation. Test cost, fleet, labour and transfer effects before adopting a fix.

Evidence and limits

894,145 final eligible bus predictions across 61 routes in this scorecard. Regional calendar coverage: 28 of 31 days with figures. Physical arrival times were not independently verified.

Questions for the record

  1. Do operator vehicle and dispatch records confirm the route-hour pattern shown here?
  2. Which scheduled trips did not run, and how complete were the public cancellation notices?
  3. What timetable, vehicle-position or arrival data can be released to validate bus results and make rail reporting possible?

The CSV exports the full month, including both operators, coverage and method. The operator selector changes the scorecard, cancellation subtotal and route findings; the daily series and calendar coverage remain regional, as do comparisons with other months.

How Gatineau · STO is doing

These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.

Measured over 805 route-hours. 44 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.

Scheduling

Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.

Who can fix it
A service planner
What it costs
Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.

Predictions close to the timetable

88.8%

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.

Route-hours with repeated late predictions

86of 805

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.

Route-hours with early predictions

4of 805

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.

Typical predicted delay

3.5min

The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.

Operations

Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.

Who can fix it
Operations, and often the road itself
What it costs
Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.

Prediction gap below twenty minutes

99.3%

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.

Route-hours with wide prediction gaps

6of 805

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.

Typical prediction gap

21.9min

The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.

Day by day

This daily series covers both operators, including when one operator is selected above. Each bar is one calendar day. A month reported as a single percentage cannot tell you whether it was uniformly average or fine except for one bad week.

Bars are scaled between 67% and 86%. Weekend days are marked. Service levels and the routes represented can differ from weekdays. The thin line under each bar is how much of that day this site actually measured, against the best-measured day of the month. A short line means the percentage above it rests on far less.

Open the day-by-day data table
Daily prediction punctuality, eligible-prediction count and relative evidence coverage
Service dateEvidence stateWithin five minutesEligible provider predictionsRelative coverageWeather
Aug 1, 2026Measured69.9%173,38565% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 2, 2026Measured75.1%147,61355% of the best-measured dayRain 36.1 mm
Aug 3, 2026Measured77%171,27264% of the best-measured dayRain 15.6 mm
Aug 4, 2026Measured76.9%230,03986% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 5, 2026Measured75.1%267,740100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 6, 2026Measured78.1%268,471100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 7, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s—0—No notable weather
Aug 8, 2026No figure; explained gap———Gusts to 61 km/h, Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 9, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 10, 2026Measured79.9%94,56435% of the best-measured dayRain 23.5 mm, Gusts to 89 km/h
Aug 11, 2026Measured79.7%197,33674% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 12, 2026Measured79.2%178,34066% of the best-measured dayRain 21.9 mm, Gusts to 107 km/h
Aug 13, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77.6%264,619—Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 14, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.2%89,175—No notable weather
Aug 15, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s74.6%43,333—No notable weather
Aug 16, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86.1%43,051—No notable weather
Aug 17, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86%82,612—No notable weather
Aug 18, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s80%77,859—No notable weather
Aug 19, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.9%66,916—No notable weather
Aug 20, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.5%88,508—No notable weather
Aug 21, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.4%89,850—No notable weather
Aug 22, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s79.9%42,913—No notable weather
Aug 23, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s87.3%27,406—No notable weather
Aug 24, 2026Measured79.3%153,97257% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 25, 2026Measured81.8%224,97084% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.4 km
Aug 26, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 27, 2026Measured83.4%132,90650% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 28, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77%25,198—No notable weather
Aug 29, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s65.2%126,206—No notable weather
Aug 30, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.8%39,079—No notable weather
Aug 31, 2026Measured81.5%139,29152% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.2 km
Open the day-by-day data table
Daily prediction punctuality, eligible-prediction count and relative evidence coverage
Service dateEvidence stateWithin five minutesEligible provider predictionsRelative coverageWeather
Aug 1, 2026Measured69.9%173,38565% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 2, 2026Measured75.1%147,61355% of the best-measured dayRain 36.1 mm
Aug 3, 2026Measured77%171,27264% of the best-measured dayRain 15.6 mm
Aug 4, 2026Measured76.9%230,03986% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 5, 2026Measured75.1%267,740100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 6, 2026Measured78.1%268,471100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 7, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s—0—No notable weather
Aug 8, 2026No figure; explained gap———Gusts to 61 km/h, Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 9, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 10, 2026Measured79.9%94,56435% of the best-measured dayRain 23.5 mm, Gusts to 89 km/h
Aug 11, 2026Measured79.7%197,33674% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 12, 2026Measured79.2%178,34066% of the best-measured dayRain 21.9 mm, Gusts to 107 km/h
Aug 13, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77.6%264,619—Visibility down to 0.2 km
Aug 14, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.2%89,175—No notable weather
Aug 15, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s74.6%43,333—No notable weather
Aug 16, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86.1%43,051—No notable weather
Aug 17, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s86%82,612—No notable weather
Aug 18, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s80%77,859—No notable weather
Aug 19, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.9%66,916—No notable weather
Aug 20, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.5%88,508—No notable weather
Aug 21, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s82.4%89,850—No notable weather
Aug 22, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s79.9%42,913—No notable weather
Aug 23, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s87.3%27,406—No notable weather
Aug 24, 2026Measured79.3%153,97257% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 25, 2026Measured81.8%224,97084% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.4 km
Aug 26, 2026No figure; explained gap———No notable weather
Aug 27, 2026Measured83.4%132,90650% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Aug 28, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s77%25,198—No notable weather
Aug 29, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s65.2%126,206—No notable weather
Aug 30, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s84.8%39,079—No notable weather
Aug 31, 2026Measured81.5%139,29152% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.2 km

Bars are scaled between 67% and 86%. Weekend days are marked. Service levels and the routes represented can differ from weekdays. The thin line under each bar is how much of that day this site actually measured, against the best-measured day of the month. A short line means the percentage above it rests on far less.

Best day
Aug 27, 2026 · 83.4%
Worst day
Aug 1, 2026 · 69.9%
Weather that day: No notable weather.

Weather is shown for context. It is not used to adjust, excuse or score any figure on this page.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, daily and hourly climate data for Ottawa International Airport (climate ID 6106001). A climate day runs midnight to midnight, local standard time, so it can differ by an hour from the service day in summer. Historical climate data ↗

What should change

Worked out from this month’s eligible provider predictions and ranked by the sample they affect. Each line says what the feed evidence shows, when, and which operator can review it.

Test more scheduled running time

Test additional scheduled running time for these hours. This pattern supports the scenario, but fleet, labour, recovery, transfer and cost effects require operator validation.

  • 32STO11:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    11,930 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 12 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 34STO12:00 to 16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    12,859 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO19:00 to 00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    7,184 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 400STO14:00 to 16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    6,310 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 95STO15:00 to 19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,844 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO13:00 to 15:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,355 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 7 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 55STO14:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,826 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 59STO16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,241 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,646 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 59STO14:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,129 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 55STO22:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,773 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 55STO20:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,070 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 56STO07:00 to 11:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,263 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 7 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO13:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,514 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 5 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 25STO15:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,655 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 59STO21:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,128 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 5 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 45STO15:00 to 17:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,407 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 12 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 800STO21:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,088 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 5 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 400STO21:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,981 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 7 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,954 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 400STO08:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,941 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 45STO08:00 to 10:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,026 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 7 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO17:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,352 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 7 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO21:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,109 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 56STO16:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    301 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 800STO05:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    210 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 4 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 6 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    125 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 6 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO05:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    123 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

Something other than the timetable

The prediction spread does not support a running-time change by itself. Test traffic, boarding load, crossings, terminal dispatch, vehicle assignment and operator availability against operational records; those cause data are not available here.

  • 32STO16:00

    At 16:00, 46 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 79 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    2,258 eligible predictions · 46% against 79% the rest of the day

  • 45STO16:00

    At 16:00, 39 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 72 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    748 eligible predictions · 39% against 72% the rest of the day

  • 25STO15:00

    At 15:00, 25 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 80 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    437 eligible predictions · 25% against 80% the rest of the day

  • 56STO08:00

    At 08:00, 38 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 74 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    393 eligible predictions · 38% against 74% the rest of the day

  • 95STO18:00

    At 18:00, 46 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 83 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    363 eligible predictions · 46% against 83% the rest of the day

Something other than the timetable, at night

The late-hour pattern does not establish a cause. Test terminal holds, prior-trip lateness, vehicle assignment, operator availability and any overnight traffic event against operational records; those records are not available here.

  • 34STO00:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 31 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    1,000 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 2 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 31 min later than the median

  • 52STO00:00

    At 00:00, 43 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 72 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    125 eligible predictions · 43% against 72% the rest of the day

Not covered here

  • Whether scheduled trips actually ran. Provider predictions do not establish trip delivery; that requires separate evidence.
  • Whether eligible provider predictions imply even or bunched spacing on frequent routes. Measured over a recent rolling window, which cannot be reconstructed for this closed month.

Against other months · both operators

The month before

July 2026 was not measured by this site.

Matched prediction comparison

This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

Previous complete calendar month · 2026-07-01–2026-07-31

Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

Current

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

Baseline

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing

Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing

    Timetable feed versions: — / —

    The same month last year

    August 2025 was not measured by this site.

    Matched prediction comparison

    This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

    Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

    Same complete calendar month last year · 2025-08-01–2025-08-31

    Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

    Current

    Eligible raw rate: —

    Matched comparison rate: —

    — / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

    Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

    Baseline

    Eligible raw rate: —

    Matched comparison rate: —

    — / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

    Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

    A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing

    Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

    Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing

      Timetable feed versions: — / —

      Furthest from the timetable in August 2026

      The routes with the lowest share of eligible final predictions within five minutes of the timetable. A low figure does not establish the cause; inspect the route evidence before drawing conclusions.

      • 52STO72.1%27,253 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 34STO73.2%48,360 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 400STO76.7%45,064 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 33STO77.1%39,879 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 59STO78.3%48,542 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 55STO79.8%63,199 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 38STO80%28,198 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 31STO82.6%35,200 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 37STO84.1%23,766 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 800STO84.3%39,713 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days

      Closest to the timetable in August 2026

      The routes with the highest share of eligible final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable. All use the same route class, evidence threshold and period. This is a relative ranking, not an operator target or measured arrival rate.

      • 69STO94.9%11,804 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 75STO94.6%21,345 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 77STO93.5%8,311 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 78STO93%13,701 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 72STO92.3%2,750 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 64STO92.1%17,071 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 66STO90.8%28,632 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 97STO89.4%32,365 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 76STO89%15,117 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days
      • 63STO88.9%11,991 eligible trip-stop predictions · 16 of 28 days

      Prediction sample, but not enough of the month

      These routes had eligible provider predictions on fewer than half the days with prediction evidence this month. Those predictions count toward the network figure above, but the routes stay out of the rankings because their sample covers only part of the month.

      • 32STO72.7%30,326 eligible trip-stop predictions · 13 of 28 days
      • 35STO85.3%19,557 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 62STO92.8%14,338 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 68STO90.6%10,160 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 73STO90.1%8,598 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 95STO72.9%8,090 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 200STO85.5%6,568 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 87STO90.2%6,444 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 56STO70%6,143 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 85STO83.5%6,085 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 36STO84.4%5,893 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 40STO78.9%5,166 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 45STO63.7%4,667 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 100STO89.6%4,562 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 93STO85.5%4,020 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 41STO77.3%3,817 eligible trip-stop predictions · 10 of 28 days
      • 25STO72.1%3,648 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 58STO94.3%3,533 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 79STO95.4%3,247 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 26STO79.5%2,891 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 27STO76.6%2,822 eligible trip-stop predictions · 10 of 28 days
      • 50STO88.9%2,786 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 23STO73.3%2,642 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 47STO64.4%2,225 eligible trip-stop predictions · 10 of 28 days
      • 28STO80.8%1,900 eligible trip-stop predictions · 10 of 28 days
      • 29STO69%1,806 eligible trip-stop predictions · 10 of 28 days
      • 18STO89.1%1,154 eligible trip-stop predictions · 11 of 28 days
      • 98STO99.3%1,066 eligible trip-stop predictions · 7 of 28 days
      • 20STO70%1,028 eligible trip-stop predictions · 10 of 28 days

      Cancellation records saved

      These are saved operator records that a trip was cancelled or deleted. Repeated updates to the same trip and notice type count once; one trip can have both types. A later update may change its status. This is separate from the timetable comparison.

      What counts as cancelled, and why trips are cancelled

      Retained records
      48
      Ottawa · OC Transpo
      182
      Gatineau · STO
      48

      Records were saved on 4 service dates in this month. Daily archive coverage has not been verified, so this is not a complete monthly cancellation total. Earliest saved record in the archive: Aug 28, 2026.

      Bus results only: where is the O-Train?

      The O-Train is not included in these figures. This monthly scorecard is calculated from bus stop-time predictions saved from the operators’ public feeds.

      Otranspo also tracks live bus positions, trip updates and cancellation notices to guide riders. This report uses a narrower historical dataset: the last eligible operator prediction for each scheduled bus stop visit, compared with the timetable. Those records have not been independently checked against a physical stop arrival.

      The public feed used for this report provides no O-Train arrival predictions or live train positions. A comparable rail scorecard needs train observations or predictions with a documented method; the published train timetable alone cannot supply one.

      Calendar coverage complete

      Every calendar day is accounted for: 28 of 31 days were measured and the remaining days, if any, have a recorded explanation. Publication status is shown separately below.

      Publication status

      Frozen publication

      Published on Oct 4, 2026, 3:13 p.m. under monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v15. This version is stored as a snapshot and will not be recomputed when the method or source data changes.

      This month is published from route days built with settled-route-histogram-v1: one final provider prediction per trip, stop and Toronto service date. The newer v2 build, which keeps each trip instance separate, cannot be applied to this month because its recorded predictions do not carry trip-instance identifiers. Comparisons with other months are withheld for the same reason.

      This edition replaces the one published under monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v14. Only partly captured days changed: an operator's day captured at under a quarter of its busiest day, or overlapped for an hour or more by a timetable mismatch in its live feed, is now left out of the totals and marked partly captured instead of counted as service. The earlier edition is kept unchanged. Earlier edition (CSV)

      Days behind these figures

      Days measured
      28 of 31
      Days with no eligible settled prediction
      3
      Days with no record
      0

      Days without figures

      • Aug 8, 2026No eligible provider prediction was settled on this day, so there is nothing to count.
      • Aug 9, 2026No eligible provider prediction was settled on this day, so there is nothing to count.
      • Aug 26, 2026No eligible provider prediction was settled on this day, so there is nothing to count.

      Buses only. The feed used here supplies no O‑Train arrival predictions or live train positions; rail is excluded from every figure on this page.

      Citing this page

      OTranspo, service report for August 2026, settled Oct 4, 2026, 3:13 p.m.. https://otranspo.ca/en/insights/reports/2026-08?operator=sto

      Figures settled
      Oct 4, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
      Method
      monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v15

      The download carries the same coverage statement and the same caveats as this page.

      Download this month (CSV)How these figures are produced