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SERVICE EVIDENCE

Service reports

Selected calculations can change; dated publications stay frozen.

Selected service window

Sep 1, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026Sep 1–30, 2026

Month · Both operators

Published monthly report · Calculated Oct 4, 2026, 5:14 p.m.

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Published monthly report · Calculated Oct 4, 2026, 5:14 p.m.

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Citywide answer

Within five minutes

Selected-date calculation

77%Share of eligible settled provider predictions; physical arrivals are not independently measured.

8,030,797 Eligible predictions

Routes measured
148
Measured days in this window
30 / 30Days

Predictions for the selected period

Within five minutes
6,185,355
Outside five minutes
1,845,442

Outside includes early and late predictions. This does not count missed trips or independently measured physical arrivals.

Inspect routes by outside-five-minute record count ↗

Routes to inspect

Where route results differ

Every route meeting this report’s sample rule

Explore routes and times ↗

Every route meeting this report’s sample rule, including routes between the highest and lowest groups. Routes with too little data and other service purposes are listed separately.

Cancellation archive evidence

Retained cancellation records
1,673
Days with records
30
Earliest date with a retained record
Aug 28, 2026
Archive coverage
Unverified
How to read this count

Records are deduplicated by operator, service date, trip ID and relationship; one trip can have multiple records (for example, separate CANCELED and DELETED records), and later reinstatements are not represented. Archive coverage is unverified, so this is not a complete period total or a count of unique trips that did not run.

Delivery and vehicle-position evidence

Other evidence for this period

These sources have separate coverage and cannot explain or complete the result above.

Explicit cancellation notices
1,541Scheduled trips marked cancelled without a qualifying later matching vehicle observation in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Archive coverage is unverified; no records is not zero cancellations.
Frequent service spacing
52 routes measuredPredicted excess waiting time from matched high-frequency arrival cohorts; this is not actual passenger waiting time.
Positions without published trip assignment
1,099Archived public vehicle positions where no trip was assigned. This does not prove a vehicle was out of service. Distance is a minimum straight-line path between eligible samples.

Comparison withheld · Timetable provenance is missing

2026-08-01–2026-08-31

Comparison evidence and coverage

Matched prediction comparison

This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

Previous complete calendar month · 2026-08-01–2026-08-31

Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

Current

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

Baseline

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

A matched difference is withheld: Timetable provenance is missing

Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. Timetable provenance is missing

    Timetable feed versions: — / —

    Method & coverage ↗
    Sources, coverage and comparisons

    Track service days

    Network-wide daily values published by the source

    Network-wide source days · Source-published on-time share · 29/30 dates with a daily value; 1 date without a value; 5 dates marked as partial capture

    Lowest measured65.5%

    Sep 26, 2026 · 231,998 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”

    Highest measured83.6%

    Sep 30, 2026 · 363,006 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”

    1. 1Sep 1, 2026: 78.8%; 149,964 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    2. Sep 2, 2026: 81.1% · Some operator data excluded; 77,114 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    3. Sep 3, 2026: Partial capture, not counted; — Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    4. Sep 4, 2026: 78.7% · Some operator data excluded; 81,375 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    5. Sep 5, 2026: 81.3% · Some operator data excluded; 43,558 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    6. Sep 6, 2026: 85.1% · Some operator data excluded; 43,142 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    7. Sep 7, 2026: 83.5%; 183,398 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    8. 8Sep 8, 2026: 76%; 361,305 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    9. Sep 9, 2026: 74.1%; 362,596 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    10. Sep 10, 2026: 74.2%; 360,549 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    11. Sep 11, 2026: 78.9%; 365,971 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    12. Sep 12, 2026: 66.4%; 234,160 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    13. Sep 13, 2026: 75.6%; 189,557 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    14. Sep 14, 2026: 80.6%; 361,665 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    15. 15Sep 15, 2026: 77.4%; 359,355 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    16. Sep 16, 2026: 76.8%; 365,074 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    17. Sep 17, 2026: 76.1%; 363,752 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    18. Sep 18, 2026: 80.2%; 360,767 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    19. Sep 19, 2026: 69.1%; 233,527 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    20. Sep 20, 2026: 74.9%; 206,301 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    21. Sep 21, 2026: 81.1%; 360,349 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    22. 22Sep 22, 2026: 76.5%; 361,553 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    23. Sep 23, 2026: 76%; 360,784 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    24. Sep 24, 2026: 74.9%; 363,439 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    25. Sep 25, 2026: 78.2%; 358,753 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    26. Lowest measured. Sep 26, 2026: 65.5%; 231,998 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    27. Sep 27, 2026: 74.9%; 205,422 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    28. Sep 28, 2026: 82.3%; 360,289 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    29. 29Sep 29, 2026: 78.2%; 362,074 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”
    30. 30Highest measured. Sep 30, 2026: 83.6%; 363,006 Source records labelled “arrivals observed”

    Published daily source values; only measured days have bars. Missing days remain visible.

    Exact daily values
    Exact daily values
    Service dateSource-published on-time shareSource records labelled “arrivals observed”
    Sep 1, 202678.8%149,964
    Sep 2, 202681.1% · Some operator data excluded77,114
    Sep 3, 2026Partial capture, not counted—
    Sep 4, 202678.7% · Some operator data excluded81,375
    Sep 5, 202681.3% · Some operator data excluded43,558
    Sep 6, 202685.1% · Some operator data excluded43,142
    Sep 7, 202683.5%183,398
    Sep 8, 202676%361,305
    Sep 9, 202674.1%362,596
    Sep 10, 202674.2%360,549
    Sep 11, 202678.9%365,971
    Sep 12, 202666.4%234,160
    Sep 13, 202675.6%189,557
    Sep 14, 202680.6%361,665
    Sep 15, 202677.4%359,355
    Sep 16, 202676.8%365,074
    Sep 17, 202676.1%363,752
    Sep 18, 202680.2%360,767
    Sep 19, 202669.1%233,527
    Sep 20, 202674.9%206,301
    Sep 21, 202681.1%360,349
    Sep 22, 202676.5%361,553
    Sep 23, 202676%360,784
    Sep 24, 202674.9%363,439
    Sep 25, 202678.2%358,753
    Sep 26, 202665.5%231,998
    Sep 27, 202674.9%205,422
    Sep 28, 202682.3%360,289
    Sep 29, 202678.2%362,074
    Sep 30, 202683.6%363,006
    Sources and interpretation · Days with route records
    Eligible predictions
    8,030,797
    Routes measured
    148
    Days with route records
    30 / 30 days

    Network coverage; operator day coverage was not published

    Inspect matched comparison evidence

    Manual read of this report’s date and operator, independent of the route-hour chart. Counts are settled provider predictions, not independently observed physical arrivals.

    Daily prediction chart

    Sep 1 – Sep 30, 2026 · both operators

    77% of bus arrival predictions were within five minutes. Saturdays were the weak spot.

    Complete dataNo comparison yet
    Headline rate
    77%
    Records counted
    8,030,797
    6,185,355 within · 1,845,442 outside
    Best day
    85.1%
    Sunday, September 6
    Worst day
    65.5%
    Saturday, September 26

    Day by day

    • Weekday
    • Saturday
    • Sunday or holiday
    • Partial day
    • No data
    • Period average
    Lowest Sep 26 (65.5%). Highest Sep 6 (85.1%). No data on Sep 3.

    What stands out

    • The 3 lowest days were all Saturdays.
    • The first week ran 3.4 points higher than the period average.

    Where routes land

    • Under 20%0
    • 20 to 40%0
    • 40 to 60%9
    • 60 to 80%62
    • 80 to 100%69
    See the 9 routes below 60%

    140 routes had enough data to rank.

    The 9 routes below 60%

    Every prediction counted

    Within: 6,185,355 (77%) Outside: 1,845,442 (23%)

    Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.

    Ask about this report

    The AI reading uses only this report’s own numbers, cites the figures it used, and says when the data cannot answer.

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    How we measure this

    We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.

    This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.

    Read the full method