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发生了什么
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  1. 阅读
  2. 我们如何衡量
  3. 乘客损失的时间

乘客损失时间统计乘客因缺班和晚点而损失的小时数。

它说明损失了多少小时、这些时间去了哪里，以及由谁承担。没有人统计每个班次上的乘客人数，所以乘客数是估算模型得出的，每个数字都带有范围。

  1. Bus times已测量
  2. Riders per trip预计
  3. Hours lost, by causeExplained
  4. Total, with range预计
When the buses came is measured. How many riders were on them is modelled. The range comes from the modelled part.

What is measured, estimated and explained

已测量

When each bus reached each stop, from live positions, compared with the timetable.

预计

How many riders were on each trip, and so the hours lost and the dollars. These carry a range.

Explained

How the pieces fit together. This page says it in words; it does not publish settings.

数据来自哪里

  • 已测量OC Transpo and STO live bus positions
  • 已测量已发布的时刻表，注明日期
  • 已测量按路线公布的上车人次
  • 预计我们的乘客量模型

我们如何计算

  1. We find the trips that did not come, ran late or ran slow. This uses where each bus actually was, as the On time page explains.
  2. We estimate the riders on each trip. We take the route’s published boardings for the day type and spread them across the day, then divide by the trips scheduled.
  3. For each problem we work out the time a typical rider lost. The five kinds are listed below.
  4. We add the hours up. A trip is counted once: a cancelled trip is not also counted as a missed transfer.
  5. We share each trip’s hours across the places it passes through, and print a range beside the total. The route total is firmer than any one ward.

时间都花在哪里

  1. 等候一直没来的公交车The riders who would have taken the trip, times the wait for the next bus that did come.
  2. 等候晚点的公交车Riders on trips more than 5 minutes after the timetable, times how late they ran, weighted for how busy the route is.
  3. 错过换乘When a trip runs later than a short connection allowance, some riders miss their connection and wait for the next one.
  4. 缓慢行程Running time beyond the timetable. A rider is on board for part of it, on average.
  5. 列车缓行The same idea for the O-Train.

每趟行程的乘客数是模型估算的

Nobody counts riders on each trip. The model starts from a route’s published boardings for a day type. It spreads them over the day using a published or network profile, and divides by the trips scheduled in each hour. The page names the model, its sources and its limits next to every figure.

Worked example

Illustrative example, rounded

Route 7, one weekday morning, one direction. These numbers are made up to show the steps, then rounded. They are not from a real day, and other routes will not look like this.

#CauseWhat we worked with损失的小时数
1One trip did not comeAbout 40 riders waited about 10 minutes for the next bus7 h
2Three trips ran lateRiders on those trips, weighted for how busy the route is3 h
3A late trip, missed transfersA few riders missed their connection1 h
4The route ran a little slowExtra time on board2 h
合计range about 10 to 16About 13 h

The causes are worked the same way, each with its own allowances. The example shows the shape of the sum, not the settings.

我们有多大把握

Every figure is an estimate with a range printed next to it. The range is wider when the model has less to go on, and a trip it has no figure for is left out, counted and lowers our confidence. It is never counted as no loss.

We will publish test results once a real back-test exists.

局限

  • It is an average. A full peak trip and an empty trip share a number.
  • Direction is split by the timetable unless the operator publishes it.
  • Where a route has no hourly profile of its own, the network’s is used.
  • Riders who gave up on the bus are not counted.
  • By place: a trip’s hours are shared across the places of its timepoints. Any one ward is approximate. Stops with no known ward are shown as “Not placed”.
  • Dollars appear only when a published value of time is supplied, with its source.

What would change the number

  • More trips judged, or a fix to how a trip was judged.
  • New published boardings, or a better hourly profile.
  • A change to the method. Each change is dated on this page and past months keep the method they were worked out with.

Check a number

Anyone can send us a case. City staff and councillors’ offices are answered first. We run it ourselves, from the raw record, and send back the figure and the working in words.

What to include

  • The route or ward
  • The date or month
  • The figure you saw, with a link or a screenshot
  • What you expected, and why (optional)
Send the case

It goes to us through the contact form.

接下来会怎样

We run the case ourselves and reply with our figure and the steps in words. If we find an error, it goes on the corrections page. We do not send the formula or its settings, so a figure cannot be tuned for or against.

数据来自哪里

  • OC Transpo and STO live bus positions
  • 按路线公布的上车人次
  • 我们的乘客量模型

方法版本和变更记录

已发布的月份数据不会更改。如果方法有修订,过去的月份仍使用当时计算所用的方法。

  • 版本 1 · 2026年10月25日. 首次发布。按原因统计的损失小时数,附带乘客人数的模型估算,每个数字都给出范围。