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How late the worst 5 in 100 settled predictions were

Sort selected final predicted delays from least to greatest. This is the delay where about 5 predictions in 100 were equally late or later in the published route window.

Definizione: Sort selected final predicted delays from least to greatest. This is the delay where about 5 predictions in 100 were equally late or later in the published route window.
Formula: PERCENTILE_DISC(0.95) ordered by settled delay seconds.
Unità: seconds, displayed in minutes
Popolazione: The same selected final provider predictions used by the on-time percentage.
Periodo di misurazione: Rolling 30-day route-health window.
Copertura: Matched published predictions only; the discrete percentile selects a final predicted delay value.
Idoneità alla pubblicazione: Regular comparable bus routes with publishable final provider-prediction evidence; merged route variants with incompatible distributions withhold this percentile.
Ambito: Each route’s settled final provider predictions in the rolling 30-day route-health window.
Cosa può sostenere questo numero: An upper-tail final-prediction schedule difference: about five selected predictions in one hundred were this late or later. This is not an independently measured arrival.
Fonti e identificativi: Metodo · Settled provider-prediction reliability methodlast-prediction-within-ten-minutes-v1
API attuale · Current network reliability public APIreliability-evidence

Stato di attuazione

Fonte candidata: Realizzato in questa fonte candidata.
Produzione pubblica: La versione corretta della metrica è implementata nel codice sorgente. La messa in produzione pubblica e la verifica non sono registrate.

Legga lo stato prima di citare questo numero.

The final provider-prediction calculation is implemented in this source candidate. Public production verification for this corrected version is still not recorded.

Esclusioni

Predictions more than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival are excluded, and delays outside ±90 minutes are removed as timetable-wrap outliers.

OC Transpo rail is excluded because the operator does not publish realtime rail observations in the feed used by this method.

Incertezza e interpretazione

The result describes matched published predictions, not every operated trip. Feed gaps and trip-matching limits can reduce coverage.

Current network evidence is recomputed and is not stored here as an immutable historical snapshot.

Dati probanti attuali

network-reliability:current

Cronologia delle modifiche

Per questa versione della metrica non risulta alcuna modifica sostanziale registrata.