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Service reports

Frozen publication

Daily report ending Oct 14, 2026

1 of 1 calendar days have completed rollupsPublished on Oct 15, 2026, 8:14 a.m. under method settled-arrival-period-report-v8

Compare bus service over a day, a week or 28 days, with dates, sample size and route evidence shown together.

Oct 14, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026 · both operators

75.9% of bus arrival predictions were within five minutes.

Complete dataNo comparison yet
Headline rate
75.9%
Records counted
359,884
273,190 within · 86,694 outside

One service day: the key numbers above are the whole report.

Where routes land

  • Under 20%0
  • 20 to 40%0
  • 40 to 60%11
  • 60 to 80%62
  • 80 to 100%67
See the 11 routes below 60%

140 routes had enough data to rank.

The 11 routes below 60%

Every prediction counted

Within: 273,190 (75.9%) Outside: 86,694 (24.1%)

Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.

Ask about this report

The AI reading uses only this report’s own numbers, cites the figures it used, and says when the data cannot answer.

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How we measure this

We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.

This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.

Read the full method

Across the network

Oct 14, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026 · 1 of 1 calendar days have completed rollups

Predicted within five minutes
75.9%
Previous period
—
Eligible trip-stop predictions
359,884
Routes measured
148

Previous period: not published for this edition

Matched prediction comparison

This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

Same weekday, one week earlier · 2026-10-07–2026-10-07

Matched route and weekday · prediction-comparison-v2

Current

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

Baseline

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

A matched difference is withheld: Timetable provenance is missing

Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · —; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · not used by this method

Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. Timetable provenance is missing

    Timetable feed versions: 1ea7c84b-eae6-4787-8aaa-01523b4e6619, 54ca76e7-e78f-4623-a135-ab2c87e99d32 / ca455c71-c30a-4e4d-8b72-2709212731cd, edd82b80-107c-4eac-9121-2bff2579fdf8

    Weather that day

    Weather is shown for context. It is not used to adjust, excuse or score any figure on this page.

    Environment and Climate Change Canada has not published weather for this day yet, or it could not be read.

    Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, daily and hourly climate data for Ottawa International Airport (climate ID 6106001). A climate day runs midnight to midnight, local standard time, so it can differ by an hour from the service day in summer. Historical climate data ↗

    Most reliable this period

    The routes with the highest share of eligible final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable. All use the same route class, evidence threshold and period. This is a relative ranking, not an operator target or measured arrival rate.

    Trip evidence is a current source read for this calendar window. It can change and is separate from any frozen report snapshot.

    Furthest from the timetable

    The routes with the lowest share of eligible final predictions within five minutes of the timetable. A low figure does not establish the cause; inspect the route evidence before drawing conclusions.

    Trip evidence is a current source read for this calendar window. It can change and is separate from any frozen report snapshot.

    Frozen publication

    Published on Oct 15, 2026, 8:14 a.m. under settled-arrival-period-report-v8. This stored snapshot will not be recomputed when evidence or code changes.

    Cite this publication

    Calculation method
    settled-arrival-period-report-v8
    Evidence available through
    Oct 15, 2026, 8:14 a.m.
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