Will it show up? Four honest answers about one trip.
For a scheduled trip at your stop we say one of four things. We say cancelled only when the operator says so and nothing is on the trip. For everything else we are less sure, and the page says how sure.
- 已取消已測量
- Likely not running預估
- 行駛中已測量
- Not tracked未測量
The four answers
The operator says the trip will not run, or that it will skip this stop, and no vehicle is on the trip. This is the operator’s word, not ours.
The operator has said nothing, but nothing is on the trip close to its time, or its vehicle has moved on to the next trip. We never use the word cancelled here, and the chance comes with a wide range.
A vehicle is reporting on this trip now.
We cannot see this trip yet: it is early, only predicted, the feed is too thin or there is no timetable for it. It does not mean the bus will come, or that it will not.
When a cancellation notice is contradicted
Sometimes the operator posts a cancelled notice and a vehicle is on the trip anyway. We show Running and say the notice was contradicted. A notice on its own is not enough.
資料來源
- 已測量OC Transpo and STO trip updates
- 已測量公車即時位置
- 已測量Published timetables, with each trip’s vehicle block
我們如何計算
- We check what the operator has said about the trip: a cancelled notice, a skipped stop or a prediction.
- We check whether a vehicle is reporting on the trip now.
- If the notice and the vehicle disagree, the vehicle wins, and we say the notice was contradicted.
- With no notice and no vehicle, we look at how close the trip is to its time, and at the vehicle’s earlier and next trips. The closer to departure with nothing seen, the lower the chance.
- We show the chance as a wide range, marked as an early estimate. When the feed is too thin to judge, we say Not tracked instead of guessing.
A trip over time
One weekday trip, nothing posted by the operator and no vehicle yet. The chance that it shows up falls as its time passes with nothing seen. The bars show the idea, not figures.
我們有多大把握
Cancelled and Running are measured. Likely not running is an early estimate: we have not yet tested it against past days, so it always carries a wide range and says so. Before it is shown as a plain figure we will test it day by day against what happened, and publish how it did.
It is a chance, not a promise.
限制
- A tracker that is switched off can look like a bus that will not come.
- A trip with a vehicle on it counts as running, even if the vehicle later stops reporting. We then say Not tracked.
- Short turns and partly cancelled trips are only suspected, never counted as cancelled.
- Trips that share one vehicle are not independent, so we never multiply their chances.
- Service alerts are shown to you, but they do not decide a trip’s answer.
What would change the answer
- The operator posts or withdraws a notice.
- A vehicle starts reporting on the trip, or stops.
- The feed gets thinner, which turns an answer into Not tracked.
- The method changes. Each change is dated on this page.
Check a number
Anyone can send us a case. City staff and councillors’ offices are answered first. We run it ourselves, from the raw record, and send back the figure and the working in words.
What to include
- The route or ward
- The date or month
- The figure you saw, with a link or a screenshot
- What you expected, and why (optional)
It goes to us through the contact form.
We run the case ourselves and reply with our figure and the steps in words. If we find an error, it goes on the corrections page. We do not send the formula or its settings, so a figure cannot be tuned for or against.
數字的來源
- OC Transpo and STO trip updates
- OC Transpo and STO live bus positions
- 已發布的時刻表,附日期
方法版本和變更記錄
已發布的月份資料不會更改。如果方法有修訂,過去的月份仍沿用當時計算所用的方法。
- 第 1 版 · 2026年10月30日. First published. Four answers about one trip: cancelled, likely not running, running, or not tracked.