Mapa
Previous measure: 48.4% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (9,739 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.
Scheduled service and available evidence
Evidence period: Okt 28, 2026 – Nob 3, 2026
—
No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.
0
0 of 67 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.
These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.
67 with position · 0 to investigate · 13 excluded · 80 scheduled trips
Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nob 4, 2026, 3:22 PM.
0 of 3 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.
13 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.
Published position coverage: 67 / 80 (83.8%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.
Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.
Historical calculation: Nob 4, 2026, 2:38 PM
Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.
Predictions against the timetable
48.4%
of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.
Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.
These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.
Calculated: Nob 4, 2026
6 partial-capture days not counted.
13 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.
Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.
Last 28 days, Oktubre 7, 2026 to Nobyembre 3, 2026: 21 days counted.
2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: Oktubre 8, 2026, Oktubre 12, 2026.
13% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 144 of 1,101 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.
4% of pairs (49) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.
| Oras ng araw | Mga pares na sinuri | Nagkumpol | Mahabang pagitan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush hour sa umaga (6 hanggang 9 a.m.) | 1,101 | 13% (144) | 4% (49) |
Slowest: CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY to de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS, 4.7 km/h actual against 20.3 km/h planned.
| Mula sa | Patungo sa | Layo | Planong bilis | Aktuwal na bilis | Mga biyaheng sinukat | Mabagal na biyahe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY | de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS | 340 m | 20.3 km/h | 4.7 km/h | 63 | 84% |
| PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD | de LUCERNE/FRASER | 3.8 km | 20.7 km/h | 10.4 km/h | 84 | 68% |
| de LUCERNE/FRASER | PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD | 3.8 km | 24.8 km/h | 13.2 km/h | 97 | 73% |
| chemin d'AYLMER/ROYALE | SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES | 450 m | 17 km/h | 15.8 km/h | 103 | 20% |
| WILFRID-LAVIGNE/PRINCIPALE | de LUCERNE/FRASER | 2.5 km | 26.3 km/h | 16.2 km/h | 61 | 46% |
| de LUCERNE/FRASER | WILFRID-LAVIGNE/LEGUERRIER | 2.6 km | 20.8 km/h | 17.7 km/h | 85 | 20% |
| SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES | SAINT-RAYMOND/LOUISE-CAMPAGNA | 3.1 km | 19.2 km/h | 21.3 km/h | 102 | 3% |
| LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND | SAINT-RAYMOND/MARCEL-CHAPUT | 3 km | 19.7 km/h | 21.8 km/h | 83 | 0% |
Ang mabagal na biyahe ay inabot nang hindi bababa sa 1.5 beses ng planadong oras.
6 partial-capture days not counted.
1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Miy, Okt 7 to Mar, Nob 3.
Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.
Mga oras na may pinakamaraming kanseladong biyahe: 6 AM (1)
May ipinapakitang dahilan lamang kapag may binanggit ito sa sariling alerto ng STO para sa biyaheng iyon.
Hindi dumating (walang nakitang bus, walang abiso), huling 7 araw: wala sa mga biyaheng nasuri namin.
Mula sa antas ng karga na iniuulat ng mga bus ng STO sa nakalipas na walong linggo. Minarkahang karaniwang matao ang isang oras kapag kalahati o higit pa sa mga biyahe na may datos ay umabot sa standing room o mas puno.
Walang oras ng araw na karaniwang matao sa nakaraang walong linggo.
| Kailan karaniwang siksikan ang rutang ito | Mga araw ng trabaho | Tuwing Sabado | Tuwing Linggo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bago mag-6 am | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa |
| 6 hanggang 9 ng umaga | Karaniwang may upuan7.5% of 173 trips | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa |
| 9 am hanggang 3 pm | Karaniwang may upuan0.9% of 215 trips | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa |
| 3 hanggang 6 ng hapon | Karaniwang may upuan32.5% of 114 trips | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa |
| 6 hanggang 10 pm | Karaniwang may upuan6.6% of 61 trips | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa |
| Pagkatapos ng 10 pm | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa | Kulang ang mga pagbasa |
Based on 56 computed days.
Hatol
Median provider predictions are 5.1 to 7.8 min later than the timetable in 9 hours of the day.
Predictions near the start are about 2.4 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 6.9 min along the route.
Wide prediction spread 16:00 to 19:00: the 95th percentile is 22.7 min later than the median.
08:00 has 14% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 44% the rest of the day.
Scenario: 5 to 8 min more running time on 48 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.
Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.
| What | Kailan | Nasukat | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable | 06:00 to 13:00 · 16:00 to 18:00 | 7.8 min late · 5.1 min late | More running time |
| ProblemWide prediction spread | 16:00 to 19:00 | 22.7 min swing | Operations, not the timetable |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match | 08:00 | 14% | Operations, not the timetable |
Pagsusuri ng ruta
Maikling buod ng alam namin. Sinasabi namin kapag hindi namin masagot ang isang tanong.
Pangunahing punto
Madalas na malayo sa iskedyul ang mga hula ng tagapagbigay sa sample na may petsang ito.
48 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 9,739 predictions checkedLaki ng sample ng prediksyon: Mas malaking sample
Based on 9,739 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Okt 6, 2026 to Nob 3, 2026.
Updated Nob 4, 2026, 2:32 PM
Ito ay mga paulit-ulit na pagkakaiba ng hula at ng iskedyul, hindi mga pagkabigo sa serbisyo na sinukat nang hiwalay. Ginagamit nito ang parehong karapat-dapat na mga hula gaya ng resulta sa itaas, pero pinagsasama-sama ayon sa hintuan, hindi ayon sa oras. Kaya maaaring hindi magkapareho ang mga listahan sa bawat linya.
2 current notices affect this route
Pagkakaiba ng hula ayon sa hintuan
98 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (120 predictions over 17 days).
Buksan ang hintuang ito97 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (121 predictions over 17 days).
Buksan ang hintuang ito94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
Buksan ang hintuang ito94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
Buksan ang hintuang itoIto ay mga hula ng provider para sa partikular na ruta, na inihambing sa iskedyul. Ipinapakita nito ang paulit-ulit na pagkakaiba ng hula sa isang lugar at oras. Hindi ito nasukat na pagdating at hindi nito sinasabi ang dahilan.
Magbukas ng yugto ng panahon para makita ang bawat araw ng serbisyo, nakatakdang biyahe, puwang sa feed, naobserbahang pampublikong ID ng sasakyan, at ang eksaktong bilang sa likod ng buod na ito.
Pagsusuri ng pagbabago sa iskedyul
Ikinukumpara po nito ang kasalukuyang opisyal na iskedyul na iniingatan sa naunang bersyon na iniingatan. Ang mga pagbabago sa iskedyul ay mga katotohanan tungkol sa kung ano ang binalak. Hindi po nito pinatutunayan na naganap ang isang biyahe.
Current published schedule began Nobyembre 2, 2026
Sinusuri po namin ang unang Lunes pagkatapos magsimula ang bagong iskedyul at ang Lunes isang linggo bago nito. Ang bawat bilang ay galing sa mga opisyal na bersyon ng GTFS na itinabi at nakasaad sa ibaba.
Hindi bababa sa isa sa mga napiling petsa ang may idinagdag o inalis na serbisyo sa petsa ng kalendaryo. Ituring po ito bilang konteksto ng holiday o espesyal na serbisyo, hindi karaniwang paglago tuwing karaniwang araw.
Petsa ng serbisyo na sinuri: Oktubre 26, 2026
Fingerprint ng feed: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f
Petsa ng serbisyo na sinuri: Nobyembre 2, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed
Fingerprint ng feed: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74
Ihahambing po namin ang mga natapos na dating ng sasakyan sa loob ng 14 na araw bago at pagkatapos ng pagbabago. Ilalathala lamang po namin ang paghahambing kapag may hindi bababa sa 7 araw ng serbisyo at 200 dating ang magkabilang panig.
Still collecting: before has 5,494 arrivals over 10 days; after has 840 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.
Sa checksum, maaaring tiyakin ng sinuman kung aling iskedyul na itinabi ang pinagmulan ng mga bilang. Ang pagbabago sa bilang ay hindi nagpapakita ng dahilan, pagkansela, desisyon ng operator, o epekto sa mga pasahero.
Inihahambing namin ang huling karapat-dapat na hula ng provider para sa bawat nakaiskedyul na pagdating sa opisyal na iskedyul. Hindi ito mga pagdating na sinukat nang hiwalay. Kailangan ng hindi bababa sa 200 karapat-dapat na hula para magkaroon ng resulta. Ang loob ng 5 minuto ang target para sa mga sakay na ginagamit dito.
Ang public feed po ay hindi nagbibigay ng maaasahang bilang ng pasahero o ng mga pagkakataong nilampasan ang mga naghihintay na pasahero. Ang kawalan ng posisyon ay hindi nangangahulugang patunay ng pagkansela, hindi pagdating, maikling biyahe o sanhi nito.
Pansamantalang resulta, inilathalang ebidensya
Sa bawat oras, inihahambing ang huling karapat-dapat na predicted na dating mula sa provider para sa isang scheduled na pagdating sa timetable. Ang "Within 5 minutes" ay naglalarawan ng pagkakaiba ng prediksyon, hindi ng nasukat na pagdating o patunay na bumiyahe ang bus.
Saklaw ng ebidensya: Oktubre 6, 2026 to Nobyembre 3, 2026
| Oras | Nasa oras | Median | 95th percentile | Ebidensya |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 37.6% | 6.9 min late | 18.9 min late | 356 · 6 days |
| 07:00 | 17.5% | 16 min late | 23.7 min late | 622 · 6 days |
| 08:00 | 13.9% | 20.3 min late | 30.3 min late | 317 · 7 days |
| 09:00 | 27.3% | 7.8 min late | 17.3 min late | 297 · 8 days |
| 10:00 | 19.4% | 12.5 min late | 16.7 min late | 346 · 8 days |
| 11:00 | 26.3% | 7.3 min late | 17.9 min late | 392 · 9 days |
| 12:00 | 48.5% | 6.1 min late | 23.4 min late | 705 · 9 days |
| 13:00 | 79.0% | 0.4 min early | 16.7 min late | 295 · 8 days |
| 14:00 | 79.1% | 0.3 min late | 17.8 min late | 326 · 8 days |
| 15:00 | 81.6% | 0.8 min late | 18.9 min late | 385 · 9 days |
| 16:00 | 57.2% | 3.9 min late | 26.5 min late | 299 · 9 days |
| 17:00 | 43.8% | 6.4 min late | 31.3 min late | 333 · 9 days |
| 18:00 | 73.8% | 1.7 min late | 22 min late | 363 · 8 days |
9 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.
67 / 80 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (83.8%).
Hindi ito kumpirmadong hindi pagsipot. Ang nawawalang posisyon ay maaaring mangahulugang kinansela o nalagpasang bus, pero maaari rin itong mangahulugang walang nakatalagang ID ng biyahe o may puwang sa feed ng operator. Inilalathala ng Otranspo ang puwang dahil mahalaga ito sa mga sakay, habang nananatiling tapat ang konklusyon.
Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Mga pinagmulan at limitasyon.
Dated service
The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.
November 3, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified
In short: 11 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 5 with an unknown outcome.