Map
FRPrevious measure: 48.4% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (9,739 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.
Scheduled service and available evidence
Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026
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No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.
0
0 of 64 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.
These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.
64 with position · 0 to investigate · 16 excluded · 80 scheduled trips
Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 2:03 a.m..
16 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.
Published position coverage: 64 / 80 (80%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.
Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.
Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 1:08 a.m.
Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.
Predictions against the timetable
48.4%
of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.
Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.
These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.
Calculated: Nov 5, 2026
6 partial-capture days not counted.
13 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.
Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.
Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 20 days counted.
2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.
11% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 115 of 1,003 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.
5% of pairs (49) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.
| Time of day | Pairs checked | Bunched | Long gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.) | 1,003 | 11% (115) | 5% (49) |
Slowest: CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY to de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS, 4.7 km/h actual against 20.3 km/h planned.
| From | To | Distance | Planned speed | Actual speed | Trips measured | Slow trips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY | de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS | 340 m | 20.3 km/h | 4.7 km/h | 58 | 83% |
| PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD | de LUCERNE/FRASER | 3.8 km | 20.7 km/h | 10.2 km/h | 78 | 69% |
| de LUCERNE/FRASER | PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD | 3.8 km | 24.8 km/h | 12.9 km/h | 89 | 76% |
| chemin d'AYLMER/ROYALE | SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES | 450 m | 16.8 km/h | 15.7 km/h | 95 | 19% |
| WILFRID-LAVIGNE/PRINCIPALE | de LUCERNE/FRASER | 2.5 km | 26.3 km/h | 17 km/h | 56 | 43% |
| de LUCERNE/FRASER | WILFRID-LAVIGNE/LEGUERRIER | 2.6 km | 20.8 km/h | 17.8 km/h | 79 | 22% |
| SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES | SAINT-RAYMOND/LOUISE-CAMPAGNA | 3.1 km | 19.2 km/h | 21.1 km/h | 94 | 3% |
| LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND | SAINT-RAYMOND/MARCEL-CHAPUT | 3 km | 19.7 km/h | 21.8 km/h | 77 | 0% |
A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.
6 partial-capture days not counted.
1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Thu, Oct 8 to Wed, Nov 4.
Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.
Hours with the most cancellations: 6 a.m. (1)
A cause is shown only when STO’s own alert for that trip gives one.
Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.
From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.
No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.
| When this route is usually busy | Weekdays | Saturdays | Sundays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 6 am | Not enough readings | Not enough readings | Not enough readings |
| 6 to 9 am | Usually seats7.8% of 167 trips | Not enough readings | Not enough readings |
| 9 am to 3 pm | Usually seats1% of 209 trips | Not enough readings | Not enough readings |
| 3 to 6 pm | Usually seats31.5% of 111 trips | Not enough readings | Not enough readings |
| 6 to 10 pm | Usually seats6.8% of 59 trips | Not enough readings | Not enough readings |
| After 10 pm | Not enough readings | Not enough readings | Not enough readings |
Based on 55 computed days.
Verdict
Median provider predictions are 5.1 to 7.6 min later than the timetable in 9 hours of the day.
Predictions near the start are about 2.2 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 6.9 min along the route.
Wide prediction spread 16:00 to 19:00: the 95th percentile is 22.7 min later than the median.
08:00 has 16% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 44% the rest of the day.
Scenario: 5 to 8 min more running time on 48 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.
Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.
| What | When | Measured | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable | 06:00 to 13:00 · 16:00 to 18:00 | 7.6 min late · 5.1 min late | More running time |
| ProblemWide prediction spread | 16:00 to 19:00 | 22.7 min swing | Operations, not the timetable |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match | 08:00 | 16% | Operations, not the timetable |
Route check
A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.
Bottom line
Provider predictions were often far from the timetable in this dated sample.
48 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 9,739 predictions checkedPrediction sample size: Larger sample
Based on 9,739 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.
Updated Nov 5, 2026, 1:32 a.m.
These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.
No current official notice matches this route.
Prediction differences by stop
98 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (120 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop97 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (121 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stopThese are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.
Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.
Schedule change check
This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.
Current published schedule began November 3, 2026
We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.
At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.
Service date checked: November 2, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed
Feed fingerprint: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74
Service date checked: November 9, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed
Feed fingerprint: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e
We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.
Still collecting: before has 5,240 arrivals over 10 days; after has 750 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.
Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.
We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.
The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.
Provisional results, published evidence
Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.
Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026
| Hour | On time | Median | 95th percentile | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 44.2% | 5.9 min late | 18.4 min late | 425 · 7 days |
| 07:00 | 23.2% | 14.9 min late | 22.8 min late | 753 · 7 days |
| 08:00 | 15.5% | 20.3 min late | 26.8 min late | 374 · 8 days |
| 09:00 | 28.7% | 7.6 min late | 17.3 min late | 327 · 9 days |
| 10:00 | 19.4% | 12.5 min late | 16.7 min late | 346 · 8 days |
| 11:00 | 27.4% | 7.2 min late | 17.9 min late | 412 · 10 days |
| 12:00 | 48.5% | 6.1 min late | 23.4 min late | 705 · 9 days |
| 13:00 | 79.0% | 0.4 min early | 16.7 min late | 295 · 8 days |
| 14:00 | 79.1% | 0.3 min late | 17.8 min late | 326 · 8 days |
| 15:00 | 81.6% | 0.8 min late | 18.9 min late | 385 · 9 days |
| 16:00 | 57.2% | 3.9 min late | 26.5 min late | 299 · 9 days |
| 17:00 | 43.8% | 6.4 min late | 31.3 min late | 333 · 9 days |
| 18:00 | 73.8% | 1.7 min late | 22 min late | 363 · 8 days |
9 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.
64 / 80 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (80.0%).
This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.
Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.
Dated service
The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.
November 4, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified
In short: 13 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 3 with an unknown outcome.