No 226 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NobyembreCancellations →

Ruta 226: Chapel Hill ⇄ Blair

Bawat 15 hanggang 18 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Evidence period: Okt 27, 2026 – Nob 2, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 4 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 4.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 120 trips with a usable feed window (0.8%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

119 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 120 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nob 3, 2026, 7:06 PM.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 119 / 120 (99.2%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nob 3, 2026, 5:38 PM

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

This service purpose needs a different method. A general percentage could give a misleading picture.

Predictions in the source: 12,650
Weekdays with evidence: 18
Evidence window: Okt 5, 2026 – Nob 2, 2026

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nob 3, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

The general hourly comparison is not suitable for this service purpose. Source records remain available.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Mga bus na dumarating nang magkakasabay

Last 28 days, Oktubre 6, 2026 to Nobyembre 2, 2026: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: Oktubre 8, 2026, Oktubre 15, 2026.

Mga halaga at paliwanag

2% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 157 of 10,083 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

2% of pairs (247) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Mga bus na dumarating nang magkakasabay
Oras ng araw	Mga pares na sinuri	Nagkumpol	Mahabang pagitan
Rush hour sa umaga (6 hanggang 9 a.m.)	4,949	2% (103)	2% (77)
Tanghali (9 a.m. hanggang 3 p.m.)	105	0% (0)	0% (0)
Rush hour sa hapon (3 hanggang 6 p.m.)	3,947	1% (45)	1% (21)
Gabi (6 hanggang 10 p.m.)	1,082	1% (9)	14% (149)

Paano ito sinusukat →How we got this numberMagkakadikit na bus at mabagal na bahagi sa bawat ruta →

Kung saan pinakamabagal ang rutang ito

Slowest: CHAPEL HILL A to RENAUD / GLENLIVET, 14.2 km/h actual against 18.9 km/h planned.

Kung saan pinakamabagal ang rutang ito
Mula sa	Patungo sa	Layo	Planong bilis	Aktuwal na bilis	Mga biyaheng sinukat	Mabagal na biyahe
CHAPEL HILL A	RENAUD / GLENLIVET	1.1 km	18.9 km/h	14.2 km/h	113	38%
INNES / RONDEL	RENAUD / COMPASS	4.9 km	19.5 km/h	20.2 km/h	117	0%
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	INNES / RONDEL	3.4 km	25.8 km/h	20.4 km/h	118	10%
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	ST JOSEPH / BEARBROOK	1.7 km	15.2 km/h	22.8 km/h	204	6%
RENAUD / GLENLIVET	EASTPARK / INNES	5.1 km	38.6 km/h	25.8 km/h	117	60%
EASTPARK / INNES	BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	3.4 km	49.5 km/h	26.4 km/h	201	74%
BLAIR A	BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH	3.7 km	44.3 km/h	28.3 km/h	187	47%
BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH	BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	1.6 km	12 km/h	35.7 km/h	184	1%

Ang mabagal na biyahe ay inabot nang hindi bababa sa 1.5 beses ng planadong oras.

Paano ito sinusukat →

Mga pagkansela sa rutang ito

Ano ang ibig sabihin ng mga salitang ito →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

Walang nabilang na kanselasyon sa rutang ito sa nakaraang apat na linggo. Ililista sa ibaba ang mga abisong hindi namin nasuri.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 120 trips we could check.

Buksan ang may petsang pagsusuri ng hula

Hatol

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 4.2 min later than the timetable in 5 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 3.2 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 4.7 min along the route.

07:00 has 37% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 61% the rest of the day.

Only 99% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 4 min more running time on 130 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 9 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 61.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 350 predictions, typically 4.2 min late
06:00: 60.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,137 predictions, typically 3.8 min late
07:00: 37.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,115 predictions, typically 6.6 min late
08:00: 56.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,061 predictions, typically 4.2 min late
09:00: 40.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 71 predictions, typically 5.6 min late
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 93.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 670 predictions, typically 0.5 min early
16:00: 80.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,080 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
17:00: 91.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 980 predictions, typically 1 min late
18:00: 65.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 640 predictions, typically 0.7 min early
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Kailan	Nasukat	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	05:00 to 10:00	4.2 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	07:00	37%	Operations, not the timetable
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	99%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 05:00 to 10:00: Measured arrivals 3,734; Hours affected 5; Spread 7.8 min; Median delay 4.2 min; Suggested running time change 4.2 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 07:00: Oras 07:00; Nasa oras 37.2%; Measured arrivals 1,115; Shortfall 23.9 pts; Route median on time 61.1%
Coverage gap · All measured hours: Target 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.2%; Mga araw ng serbisyo 5; Trips with a matching position 119; Mga biyaheng nakatakda sa iskedyul 120

Buksan ang kasaysayan, fiabilidad at pagsusuri ng ruta

Pagsusuri ng ruta

How route 226 has been running

Maikling buod ng alam namin. Sinasabi namin kapag hindi namin masagot ang isang tanong.

Pangunahing punto

Kailangan naming malaman kung saan sumasakay ang mga pasahero sa express na rutang ito bago namin ito mabigyan ng rating.

Laki ng sample ng prediksyon: Mas malaking sample

Based on 12,650 eligible provider predictions over 18 measured days, from Okt 5, 2026 to Nob 2, 2026.

Updated Nob 3, 2026, 5:32 PM

Saan at kailan paulit-ulit na nagkaiba ang mga hula?

Ito ay mga paulit-ulit na pagkakaiba ng hula at ng iskedyul, hindi mga pagkabigo sa serbisyo na sinukat nang hiwalay. Ginagamit nito ang parehong karapat-dapat na mga hula gaya ng resulta sa itaas, pero pinagsasama-sama ayon sa hintuan, hindi ayon sa oras. Kaya maaaring hindi magkapareho ang mga listahan sa bawat linya.

Hindi nire-rank ang mga oras na may problema dahil kailangan ng serbisyong ito ng pagsubok na akma sa layunin nito.

Walang kasalukuyang opisyal na abiso na tumutugma sa rutang ito.

Pagkakaiba ng hula ayon sa hintuan

Wala pa kaming sapat na kasaysayan ng ruta bawat hintuan para pangalanan ang paulit-ulit na problemang hintuan. Ginagamit lang na pahiwatig ang mga ulat ng mga sakay, hindi patunay.

Suriin ang bawat biyahe at petsa

Magbukas ng yugto ng panahon para makita ang bawat araw ng serbisyo, nakatakdang biyahe, puwang sa feed, naobserbahang pampublikong ID ng sasakyan, at ang eksaktong bilang sa likod ng buod na ito.

Ang gustong malaman ng mga pasahero

May kanseladong biyahe ba ngayon?: Walang biyaheng aalis sa susunod na 4 na orasSinusuri ang mga biyaheng magsisimula sa dulo ng ruta sa susunod na 4 na oras. Hindi ito makasaysayang bilang ng pagkansela.
Posibleng hindi sumipot matapos suriin ang mga puwang sa feed?: 1 of 120 checked trips need a closer look1 of 120 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 120 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
Paano naiba ang mga hula ng tagapagbigay ng serbisyo sa iskedyul?: Kulang pa ang ebidensya
Gaano katagal na paghihintay ang ipinahiwatig ng mga tinatayang oras ng operator?: Wala pang resulta sa antas ng ruta na umaabot sa pamantayan ng evidence. Hindi po ibig sabihin nito na walang nangyaring puwang sa serbisyo.

Pagsusuri ng pagbabago sa iskedyul

Nailathalang iskedyul: bago at pagkatapos

Ikinukumpara po nito ang kasalukuyang opisyal na iskedyul na iniingatan sa naunang bersyon na iniingatan. Ang mga pagbabago sa iskedyul ay mga katotohanan tungkol sa kung ano ang binalak. Hindi po nito pinatutunayan na naganap ang isang biyahe.

Current published schedule began Oktubre 30, 2026

Piniling araw ng serbisyo mula sa bawat inilathalang iskedyul

Sinusuri po namin ang unang Lunes pagkatapos magsimula ang bagong iskedyul at ang Lunes isang linggo bago nito. Ang bawat bilang ay galing sa mga opisyal na bersyon ng GTFS na itinabi at nakasaad sa ibaba.

Hindi bababa sa isa sa mga napiling petsa ang may idinagdag o inalis na serbisyo sa petsa ng kalendaryo. Ituring po ito bilang konteksto ng holiday o espesyal na serbisyo, hindi karaniwang paglago tuwing karaniwang araw.

Bago

Petsa ng serbisyo na sinuri: Oktubre 26, 2026

Mga biyaheng nakatakda sa iskedyul: 24
Mga natatanging hintuan na nasa iskedyul: 71
Iba't ibang inilathalang daanan: 4
Inilathalang oras ng serbisyo: 05:39–18:41

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Fingerprint ng feed: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

Bagong iskedyul

Petsa ng serbisyo na sinuri: Nobyembre 2, 2026

Mga biyaheng nakatakda sa iskedyul: 24
Mga natatanging hintuan na nasa iskedyul: 71
Iba't ibang inilathalang daanan: 4
Inilathalang oras ng serbisyo: 05:39–18:41

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Fingerprint ng feed: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Gumanda po ba ang serbisyo pagkatapos ng pagbabago?

Ihahambing po namin ang mga natapos na dating ng sasakyan sa loob ng 14 na araw bago at pagkatapos ng pagbabago. Ilalathala lamang po namin ang paghahambing kapag may hindi bababa sa 7 araw ng serbisyo at 200 dating ang magkabilang panig.

Hindi po angkop sa layunin ng serbisyo ng rutang ito ang karaniwang pagmamarka ng pagiging on time. Makikita pa rin po ang bilang ng mga takbo ayon sa iskedyul. Hihintayin po muna ang resulta hanggang sa makuha ang mga datos na tugma sa layunin, na inilalarawan sa ibaba.

Sa checksum, maaaring tiyakin ng sinuman kung aling iskedyul na itinabi ang pinagmulan ng mga bilang. Ang pagbabago sa bilang ay hindi nagpapakita ng dahilan, pagkansela, desisyon ng operator, o epekto sa mga pasahero.

Paano hinuhusgahan ang rutang ito: Express / commuter na ruta

Dapat suriin ang pagganap ng papasok na biyahe sa mga lugar ng sakayan. Ang maagang takbo palabas matapos ang mga sakay ay hindi itinuturing na maagang serbisyo gaya ng sa karaniwang ruta.

Ang hindi mapatutunayan ng datos na ito

Ang public feed po ay hindi nagbibigay ng maaasahang bilang ng pasahero o ng mga pagkakataong nilampasan ang mga naghihintay na pasahero. Ang kawalan ng posisyon ay hindi nangangahulugang patunay ng pagkansela, hindi pagdating, maikling biyahe o sanhi nito.

Tingnan ang mga kahulugan, hangganan at pagkakasunod-sunod ng ebidensya

Opisyal na kasalukuyang feed: mga tahasang pagkansela, mga nilaktawang hintuan, at mga aktibong abiso.
Mga tugmang obserbasyon: mga posisyon ng sasakyan at mga pinal na prediksyon na iniugnay sa opisyal na iskedyul.
Opisyal na iskedyul: ang plano, hiwalay sa naobserbahan.
Mga ulat ng pasahero at operator: mga lead tungkol sa ruta, oras, at lugar na dapat imbestigahan. Hindi ito sapat na patunay na numerikal sa sarili nito.

Pansamantalang resulta, inilathalang ebidensya

Datos sa likod ng resultang ito

Hindi angkop ang karaniwang marka ng pagiging on time para sa serbisyong ito kung hindi muna susuriin ang layunin nito. Ipinapaliwanag sa pagsusuri ng ruta sa itaas ang kailangang ebidensya tungkol sa pickup, serbisyong pangkomunidad, o event. Maaari pa rin po ninyong tingnan sa ibaba ang mga naitalang biyahe at ang mga kulang na datos.

Saklaw ng ebidensya: Oktubre 5, 2026 to Nobyembre 2, 2026

Mga karapat-dapat na hula na nasuri: 12,650
Mga araw ng linggo na may datos: 18

Nakaiskedyul na bus, ngunit hindi naobserbahan sa real-time

119 / 120 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (99.2%).

05:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
06:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
15:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
16:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%

Hindi ito kumpirmadong hindi pagsipot. Ang nawawalang posisyon ay maaaring mangahulugang kinansela o nalagpasang bus, pero maaari rin itong mangahulugang walang nakatalagang ID ng biyahe o may puwang sa feed ng operator. Inilalathala ng Otranspo ang puwang dahil mahalaga ito sa mga sakay, habang nananatiling tapat ang konklusyon.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Mga pinagmulan at limitasyon.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026 October 27, 2026

November 2, 2026 · 24 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 23 with a matched position · 1 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:39– 06:03
Trip 35530020No matching position; investigate, not a confirmed cancellation
06:04– 06:18
Trip 24084020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:45 a.m. EST / 6:13 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:09– 06:33
Trip 5053020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:47 a.m. EST / 6:45 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:34– 06:48
Trip 30552020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:58 a.m. EST / 6:53 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:39– 07:03
Trip 26191020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:17 a.m. EST / 7:13 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:04– 07:18
Trip 29959020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:05 a.m. EST / 7:19 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:09– 07:33
Trip 20353020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:48 a.m. EST / 7:46 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:33– 07:48
Trip 5134020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:54 a.m. EST / 7:51 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:36– 08:03
Trip 34416020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:14 a.m. EST / 8:10 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:05– 08:20
Trip 31587020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:52 a.m. EST / 8:23 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:09– 08:36
Trip 18530020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:47 a.m. EST / 8:43 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:39– 09:12
Trip 7189020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:39 a.m. EST / 9:13 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day