No 49 trips cancelled now · 2 did not run in novembroCancellations →

Previous measure: 77,5% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (16.440 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

Rota 49: Elmvale ⇄ Hurdman

A cada 30 a 120 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 27 de out. de 2026 – 2 de nov. de 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 5 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 6.

Trips needing investigation

3 of 214 trips with a usable feed window (1,4%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

211 with position · 3 to investigate · 0 excluded · 214 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 3 de nov. de 2026, 21:04.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 1 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 211 / 214 (98,6%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 3 de nov. de 2026, 19:38

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

77,5%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 16.440
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: 5 de out. de 2026 – 2 de nov. de 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0696% · 422 predictions · 11 days
0777% · 420 predictions · 10 days
0869% · 1.006 predictions · 12 days
0979% · 409 predictions · 14 days
1094% · 567 predictions · 14 days
1294% · 574 predictions · 14 days
1490% · 720 predictions · 14 days
1578% · 887 predictions · 14 days
1667% · 964 predictions · 14 days
1773% · 1.015 predictions · 14 days
1858% · 785 predictions · 12 days
1988% · 393 predictions · 10 days
2087% · 31 predictions · 10 days
2285% · 200 predictions · 10 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 4 de nov. de 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

14 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Ônibus chegando juntos

Last 28 days, 6 de outubro de 2026 to 2 de novembro de 2026: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 8 de outubro de 2026, 15 de outubro de 2026.

Valores e interpretação

No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (4.900 pairs checked at stops).

0% of pairs (0) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Ônibus chegando juntos
Hora do dia	Pares verificados	Agrupados	Intervalo longo
Pico da manhã (6 às 9 h)	2.154	0% (0)	0% (0)
Meio do dia (9 a.m. a 3 p.m.)	335	0% (0)	0% (0)
Pico da tarde (das 3 às 6 da tarde)	2.207	0% (0)	0% (0)
Noite (das 6 às 10 da noite)	204	0% (0)	0% (0)

Como isso é medido →How we got this numberComboios de ônibus e pontos lentos em todas as linhas →

Onde esta linha é mais lenta

Slowest: ELMVALE A to PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY, 25,2 km/h actual against 31 km/h planned.

Onde esta linha é mais lenta
De	Para	Distância	Velocidade planejada	Velocidade real	Trajetos medidos	Trajetos lentos
ELMVALE A	PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY	2,2 km	31 km/h	25,2 km/h	394	31%
HURDMAN D	PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY	4,4 km	35,7 km/h	26,4 km/h	356	31%

Um trajeto lento levou pelo menos 1.5 vez o tempo previsto.

Como isso é medido →

Cancelamentos nesta linha

O que estas palavras significam →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

4 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from ter., 6 de out. to seg., 2 de nov..

Not counted: 9 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Horas com mais cancelamentos: 17 (2), 16 (1), 18 (1)

Últimos trajetos cancelados

seg., 2 de nov., scheduled 18:31
sex., 23 de out., scheduled 16:28
qui., 22 de out., scheduled 17:02
sex., 9 de out., scheduled 17:02

A OC Transpo não informa o motivo de viagens individuais, por isso nenhum é mostrado.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 2 of 214 trips we could check.

Abrir a análise das previsões com datas

Veredicto

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3,3 to 4,3 min later than the timetable in 4 hours of the day.

The prediction difference from the timetable grows by about 2 min along the route.

18:00 has 58% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 82% the rest of the day.

Only 99% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 3 to 4 min more running time on 144 trips. The schedule-block model estimates 4 additional buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 16 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 96% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 422 predictions, typically 1,2 min late
07:00: 77,4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 420 predictions, typically 3 min late
08:00: 68,8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1.006 predictions, typically 3,9 min late
09:00: 78,5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 409 predictions, typically 2,9 min late
10:00: 93,7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 567 predictions, typically 1,5 min late
11:00: not enough data
12:00: 93,9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 574 predictions, typically 2 min late
13:00: not enough data
14:00: 90,1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 720 predictions, typically 1,8 min late
15:00: 78,2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 887 predictions, typically 2,5 min late
16:00: 67,4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 964 predictions, typically 3,7 min late
17:00: 72,9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1.015 predictions, typically 2,5 min late
18:00: 58% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 785 predictions, typically 4,3 min late
19:00: 88% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 393 predictions, typically 2,5 min late
20:00: 87,1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 31 predictions, typically 2,4 min late
21:00: not enough data
22:00: 84,5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 200 predictions, typically 3,3 min late
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Quando	Medido	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	08:00 · 16:00 · 18:00 · 22:00	3,9 min late … 3,3 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	18:00	58%	Operations, not the timetable
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	99%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 08:00: Measured arrivals 1.006; Hours affected 1; Spread 8,8 min; Median delay 3,9 min; Suggested running time change 3,9 min
Predictions later than timetable · 16:00: Measured arrivals 964; Hours affected 1; Spread 9,6 min; Median delay 3,7 min; Suggested running time change 3,7 min
Predictions later than timetable · 18:00: Measured arrivals 785; Hours affected 1; Spread 6,2 min; Median delay 4,3 min; Suggested running time change 4,3 min
Predictions later than timetable · 22:00: Measured arrivals 200; Hours affected 1; Spread 2,2 min; Median delay 3,3 min; Suggested running time change 3,3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 18:00: Hora 18:00; Pontual 58%; Measured arrivals 785; Shortfall 23,5 pts; Route median on time 81,5%
Coverage gap · All measured hours: Meta 99,5%; Trips with a matching position 98,6%; Dias de serviço 5; Trips with a matching position 211; Viagens programadas 214

Abrir histórico, fiabilidade e análise da rota

Verificação da linha

How route 49 has been running

Um resumo curto do que sabemos. Dizemos isso quando não podemos responder a uma pergunta.

Em resumo

As previsões do provedor muitas vezes diferiram do horário previsto. As chegadas reais não foram medidas de forma independente.

78 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 16.440 predictions checked

Tamanho da amostra de previsão: Amostra maior

Based on 16.440 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from 5 de out. de 2026 to 2 de nov. de 2026.

Updated 3 de nov. de 2026, 19:32

Onde e quando as previsões diferiram repetidamente?

Estas são diferenças repetidas entre a previsão e o horário, não falhas de serviço medidas de forma independente. Usam as mesmas previsões elegíveis do resultado acima, mas agrupam por parada, e não por hora. Por isso, as listas podem não coincidir linha por linha.

18–19: 42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (785 predictions over 12 days).
16–17: 33 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (964 predictions over 14 days).
08–09: 31 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1.006 predictions over 12 days).

Nenhum aviso oficial atual corresponde a esta linha.

Diferenças de previsão por parada

PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY
48 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (411 predictions over 30 days).
Abrir esta parada
PLEASANT PARK / LYNDA
46 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (411 predictions over 30 days).
Abrir esta parada
PLEASANT PARK / AD. 504
45 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (411 predictions over 30 days).
Abrir esta parada
PLEASANT PARK / AD. 452
44 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (411 predictions over 30 days).
Abrir esta parada

São previsões do fornecedor específicas da linha, comparadas com o horário. Elas mostram diferenças repetidas de previsão em um lugar e horário, não chegadas medidas nem a causa delas.

Verificar cada viagem e data

Abra um período para ver cada dia de serviço, trajeto previsto no horário, falha nos dados, ID público de veículo observado e os números exatos por trás deste resumo.

O que os passageiros querem saber

Alguma viagem está cancelada agora?: 0 of 1Verifica as viagens que começam nos terminais da linha nas próximas 4 horas. Não é uma taxa histórica de cancelamento.
Possíveis faltas de ônibus após verificar falhas no feed?: 3 of 214 checked trips need a closer look3 of 214 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 214 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
Como as previsões do fornecedor diferiram do horário?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 11,3 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)78 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
Qual espera as previsões do provedor indicavam?: Nenhum resultado por linha atinge ainda o limite de dados probantes. Isso não significa que não houve falhas.

Verificação da mudança de horário

Horário publicado: antes e depois

Isto compara o horário oficial atual guardado com a versão anterior guardada. As mudanças de horário são fatos sobre o que foi planejado. Elas não provam que um trajeto foi realizado.

Current published schedule began 30 de outubro de 2026

Dia de serviço selecionado em cada horário publicado

Verificamos a primeira segunda-feira depois do início do novo horário e a segunda-feira uma semana antes. Todos os números vêm das versões oficiais do GTFS guardadas, indicadas abaixo.

Pelo menos uma data escolhida tem serviço incluído ou removido por data do calendário. Considere isso como contexto de feriado ou de serviço especial, não como aumento normal de dia útil.

Antes

Data de serviço verificada: 26 de outubro de 2026

Viagens programadas: 35
Paradas previstas distintas: 43
Percursos publicados distintos: 2
Período de serviço publicado: 6:10–22:33

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Impressão digital do feed: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

Novo horário

Data de serviço verificada: 2 de novembro de 2026

Viagens programadas: 35
Paradas previstas distintas: 43
Percursos publicados distintos: 2
Período de serviço publicado: 6:10–22:33

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Impressão digital do feed: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

O serviço melhorou depois da mudança?

Vamos comparar as chegadas confirmadas nos 14 dias antes e depois da mudança. Só publicamos a comparação quando os dois períodos tiverem pelo menos 7 dias de serviço e 200 chegadas.

Still collecting: before has 8.709 arrivals over 14 days; after has 2.229 arrivals over 4 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Os checksums permitem que qualquer pessoa verifique qual horário guardado gerou as contagens. Uma contagem alterada não indica a causa, um cancelamento, uma decisão da operadora ou um impacto para os passageiros.

Como esta linha é avaliada: Linha regular com todas as paradas

Comparamos a última previsão válida do provedor para cada chegada prevista no horário com o horário oficial. Não são chegadas medidas de forma independente. Um resultado precisa de pelo menos 200 previsões válidas. Dentro de 5 minutos é a meta usada aqui, do ponto de vista do passageiro.

O que estes dados não podem provar

Os dados públicos não trazem contagens confiáveis de passageiros nem registros de passageiros deixados na parada. A falta de uma posição não prova, por si só, um cancelamento, uma ausência de viagem, um retorno antecipado ou uma causa.

Veja as definições, os limites e a ordem dos dados probantes

Feed oficial atual: cancelamentos explícitos, paradas puladas e avisos ativos.
Observações correspondentes: posições de veículos e previsões consolidadas ligadas ao horário oficial.
Horário oficial: o que foi planejado, separado do que foi observado.
Relatos de passageiros e de exploradores: pistas sobre linhas, horários e locais a investigar, não prova numérica por si só.

Resultados provisórios, dados probantes publicados

Como as previsões se compararam com o horário?

A cada hora, comparamos a última previsão válida do provedor para uma chegada prevista no horário com o quadro de horários. “Em até 5 minutos” descreve a diferença entre as previsões. Não é uma chegada medida nem prova de que um ônibus circulou.

Período dos dados probantes: 5 de outubro de 2026 to 2 de novembro de 2026

Até 5 minutos do horário programado: 77,5%
Previsões elegíveis verificadas: 16.440
Dias úteis com dados: 19
Atraso previsto no percentil 95: 11,3 min late

Patterns by hour (16)

Patterns by hour (16)
Hora	Pontual	Mediana	Percentil 95	Evidências
06:00	96,0%	1,2 min late	4,8 min late	422 · 11 days
07:00	77,4%	3 min late	7,2 min late	420 · 10 days
08:00	68,8%	3,9 min late	12,7 min late	1.006 · 12 days
09:00	78,5%	2,9 min late	14,8 min late	409 · 14 days
10:00	93,7%	1,5 min late	7,8 min late	567 · 14 days
11:00	100,0%	0,2 min early	1,1 min late	164 · 4 days
12:00	93,9%	2 min late	5,4 min late	574 · 14 days
13:00	86,6%	0,9 min late	12,6 min late	164 · 4 days
14:00	90,1%	1,8 min late	5,8 min late	720 · 14 days
15:00	78,2%	2,5 min late	9,4 min late	887 · 14 days
16:00	67,4%	3,7 min late	13,2 min late	964 · 14 days
17:00	72,9%	2,5 min late	10,5 min late	1.015 · 14 days
18:00	58,0%	4,3 min late	10,5 min late	785 · 12 days
19:00	88,0%	2,5 min late	6,6 min late	393 · 10 days
20:00	87,1%	2,4 min late	5,5 min late	31 · 10 days
22:00	84,5%	3,3 min late	5,5 min late	200 · 10 days

3 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Ônibus previsto no horário, mas não observado em tempo real

211 / 214 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (98,6%).

18:001 / 17 trips without a position94,1%
17:001 / 24 trips without a position95,8%
08:001 / 26 trips without a position96,2%
06:000 / 10 trips without a position100,0%
07:000 / 10 trips without a position100,0%
09:000 / 9 trips without a position100,0%

Isto não é uma falta confirmada. Uma posição ausente pode indicar um ônibus cancelado ou perdido. Também pode indicar um ID de trajeto não atribuído ou uma falha no feed da operadora. O Otranspo publica essa lacuna porque ela importa para os passageiros, sem tirar conclusões que os dados não permitem.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Fontes e limitações.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026 October 27, 2026

November 2, 2026 · 35 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 34 with a matched position · 1 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

06:10– 06:24
Trip 36085020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:58 a.m. EST / 6:25 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:40– 06:54
Trip 5544020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:27 a.m. EST / 6:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:10– 07:24
Trip 20693020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:11 a.m. EST / 7:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:40– 07:56
Trip 9409020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:55 a.m. EST / 7:58 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:00– 08:16
Trip 14137020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:01 a.m. EST / 8:26 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:02– 08:16
Trip 32423020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:28 a.m. EST / 8:19 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:21– 08:37
Trip 31859020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:00 a.m. EST / 8:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:30– 08:44
Trip 1544020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:34 a.m. EST / 9:16 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:51– 09:06
Trip 31757020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:07 a.m. EST / 9:09 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:02– 09:16
Trip 9562020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:04 a.m. EST / 9:17 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:02– 10:16
Trip 27657020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:04 a.m. EST / 10:15 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:24– 10:38
Trip 5292020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:23 a.m. EST / 10:37 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day