- مطالعه
- چگونه اندازهگیری میکنیم
- وقت ازدسترفته مسافران
زمان ازدسترفته مسافران، ساعتهایی را میشمارد که مسافران به سبب خدمات ازدسترفته و دیرهنگام از دست میدهند.
این گزارش نشان میدهد چند ساعت از دست رفته، کجا رفته و چه کسانی آن را متحمل شدهاند. تعداد مسافران در هر سفر شمرده نمیشود، بنابراین مسافران مدلسازی شدهاند و هر رقم با یک بازه همراه است.
- Bus timesاندازهگیری شده
- Riders per tripتخمینی
- Hours lost, by causeExplained
- Total, with rangeتخمینی
What is measured, estimated and explained
When each bus reached each stop, from live positions, compared with the timetable.
How many riders were on each trip, and so the hours lost and the dollars. These carry a range.
How the pieces fit together. This page says it in words; it does not publish settings.
این رقمها از کجا میآیند
- اندازهگیری شدهOC Transpo and STO live bus positions
- اندازهگیری شدهجدولهای زمانی منتشرشده، با تاریخ
- اندازهگیری شدهشمار سوارشدگان نشرشده به تفکیک مسیر
- تخمینیمدل تعداد مسافران ما
چگونه محاسبه میکنیم
- We find the trips that did not come, ran late or ran slow. This uses where each bus actually was, as the On time page explains.
- We estimate the riders on each trip. We take the route’s published boardings for the day type and spread them across the day, then divide by the trips scheduled.
- For each problem we work out the time a typical rider lost. The five kinds are listed below.
- We add the hours up. A trip is counted once: a cancelled trip is not also counted as a missed transfer.
- We share each trip’s hours across the places it passes through, and print a range beside the total. The route total is firmer than any one ward.
ساعتها کجا میروند
- انتظار برای بسهایی که هرگز نیامدندThe riders who would have taken the trip, times the wait for the next bus that did come.
- انتظار برای بسهای دیرRiders on trips more than 5 minutes after the timetable, times how late they ran, weighted for how busy the route is.
- تبدیلهای از دست رفتهWhen a trip runs later than a short connection allowance, some riders miss their connection and wait for the next one.
- سفرهای کندRunning time beyond the timetable. A rider is on board for part of it, on average.
- حرکت آهستهٔ قطارهاThe same idea for the O-Train.
تعداد مسافران در هر سفر با مدل برآورد میشود
Nobody counts riders on each trip. The model starts from a route’s published boardings for a day type. It spreads them over the day using a published or network profile, and divides by the trips scheduled in each hour. The page names the model, its sources and its limits next to every figure.
Worked example
Route 7, one weekday morning, one direction. These numbers are made up to show the steps, then rounded. They are not from a real day, and other routes will not look like this.
The causes are worked the same way, each with its own allowances. The example shows the shape of the sum, not the settings.
چقدر مطمئن هستیم
Every figure is an estimate with a range printed next to it. The range is wider when the model has less to go on, and a trip it has no figure for is left out, counted and lowers our confidence. It is never counted as no loss.
We will publish test results once a real back-test exists.
محدودیتها
- It is an average. A full peak trip and an empty trip share a number.
- Direction is split by the timetable unless the operator publishes it.
- Where a route has no hourly profile of its own, the network’s is used.
- Riders who gave up on the bus are not counted.
- By place: a trip’s hours are shared across the places of its timepoints. Any one ward is approximate. Stops with no known ward are shown as “Not placed”.
- Dollars appear only when a published value of time is supplied, with its source.
What would change the number
- More trips judged, or a fix to how a trip was judged.
- New published boardings, or a better hourly profile.
- A change to the method. Each change is dated on this page and past months keep the method they were worked out with.
Check a number
Anyone can send us a case. City staff and councillors’ offices are answered first. We run it ourselves, from the raw record, and send back the figure and the working in words.
What to include
- The route or ward
- The date or month
- The figure you saw, with a link or a screenshot
- What you expected, and why (optional)
It goes to us through the contact form.
We run the case ourselves and reply with our figure and the steps in words. If we find an error, it goes on the corrections page. We do not send the formula or its settings, so a figure cannot be tuned for or against.
این رقمها از کجا میآیند
- OC Transpo and STO live bus positions
- شمار سوارشدگان نشرشده به تفکیک مسیر
- مدل تعداد مسافران ما
نسخهٔ روش و فهرست تغییرات
ماه منتشرشده هرگز تغییر نمیکند. اگر روشی اصلاح شود، ماههای گذشته همان روشی را نگه میدارند که با آن محاسبه شده بودند.
- نسخه 1 · 25 اکتوبر 2026. نخستین انتشار. ساعتهای از دست رفته به تفکیک علت، با شمار مدلسازیشدهٔ مسافران و یک دامنه برای هر رقم.