No 86 trips cancelled now · 8 did not run in 11월Cancellations →

Previous measure: 82.1% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (78,831 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

86번 노선: Tunney's Pasture ⇄ A - Antares & C - Colonnade

15분에서 30분마다

방면Tunney's Pasture2 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026. 10. 27. – 2026. 11. 2.

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 9 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 13.

Trips needing investigation

12 of 619 trips with a usable feed window (1.9%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

607 with position · 12 to investigate · 0 excluded · 619 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026. 11. 3. 오후 8:34.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 12 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 607 / 619 (98.1%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026. 11. 3. 오후 7:39

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

82.1%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 78,831
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: 2026. 10. 5. – 2026. 11. 2.

The hours we have evidence for

0시86% · 509 predictions · 14 days
5시98% · 935 predictions · 11 days
6시87% · 2,655 predictions · 15 days
7시89% · 2,816 predictions · 14 days
8시69% · 3,089 predictions · 14 days
9시90% · 2,593 predictions · 14 days
10시91% · 1,897 predictions · 14 days
11시89% · 1,861 predictions · 14 days
12시87% · 1,877 predictions · 14 days
13시86% · 1,921 predictions · 14 days
14시88% · 2,012 predictions · 14 days
15시71% · 2,715 predictions · 14 days
16시69% · 3,084 predictions · 14 days
17시61% · 3,238 predictions · 14 days
18시79% · 2,413 predictions · 14 days
19시91% · 1,887 predictions · 14 days
20시82% · 1,898 predictions · 14 days
21시81% · 1,718 predictions · 14 days
22시86% · 1,564 predictions · 14 days
23시93% · 1,154 predictions · 14 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026. 11. 4.

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

20 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

몰려서 도착하는 버스

Last 28 days, 2026년 10월 6일 to 2026년 11월 2일: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026년 10월 8일, 2026년 10월 15일.

값과 해석

2% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 1,512 of 61,093 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

2% of pairs (1,289) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

몰려서 도착하는 버스
시간대	확인한 쌍	몰림	긴 배차 간격
이른 아침 (오전 4시~6시)	119	0% (0)	0% (0)
아침 혼잡 시간 (오전 6시부터 9시)	10,122	6% (602)	4% (393)
낮 시간 (오전 9시부터 오후 3시)	20,857	1% (123)	0% (43)
오후 혼잡 시간 (오후 3시~6시)	13,389	5% (718)	5% (723)
저녁 (오후 6시~10시)	13,638	0% (68)	1% (129)
야간 (오후 10시부터 오전 4시까지)	2,968	0% (1)	0% (1)

측정 방법 →How we got this number모든 노선의 버스 몰림과 느린 구간 →

이 노선에서 가장 느린 구간

Slowest: TUNNEY'S PASTURE D to HOLLAND / CARLING, 15.4 km/h actual against 11.9 km/h planned.

이 노선에서 가장 느린 구간
출발지	도착	거리	계획 속도	실제 속도	측정된 운행	느린 운행
TUNNEY'S PASTURE D	HOLLAND / CARLING	1.8 km	11.9 km/h	15.4 km/h	1,082	3%
ANTARES / WEST HUNT CLUB	PRINCE OF WALES / STEPHANIE	2.7 km	17.2 km/h	16.8 km/h	896	8%
FISHER / BASELINE	HOLLAND / CARLING	2.3 km	23 km/h	18.3 km/h	81	14%
HOLLAND / CARLING	HOLLAND / SCOTT	1.6 km	13.5 km/h	21.5 km/h	1,087	0%
FISHER / BASELINE	HOLLAND / CARLING	2.1 km	22 km/h	22.5 km/h	1,016	3%
HOLLAND / CARLING	FISHER / BASELINE	2.1 km	21 km/h	24.4 km/h	1,101	3%
PRINCE OF WALES / STEPHANIE	FISHER / BASELINE	3.7 km	21.4 km/h	25.7 km/h	901	0%
FISHER / BASELINE	ANTARES / WEST HUNT CLUB	4.9 km	24.6 km/h	27.7 km/h	184	1%

느린 운행은 계획된 시간의 1.5배 이상 걸린 운행입니다.

측정 방법 →

이 노선 근처의 시 도로 공사

오타와시가 발표한 도로 공사와 행사 도로 통제 중 이 노선 경로 근처에 있는 것입니다. 근처라고 해서 버스가 우회한다는 뜻은 아닙니다. 우회 여부는 운영 기관의 서비스 알림을 확인하세요.

시의 도로 공사 목록을 지금은 읽을 수 없습니다.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

출처: 오타와시 교통 이벤트(도로 공사 및 통제). 오타와시 오픈 정부 라이선스에 따라 제공된 정보를 포함합니다. 시는 이 목록이 최선의 노력으로 작성되었으며 불완전할 수 있다고 밝히고 있습니다. 오타와시 교통 지도 ↗

이 노선의 취소

이 용어의 뜻 →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

11 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from 10월 6일 (화) to 11월 2일 (월).

Not counted: 20 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

취소가 가장 많은 시간대: 오후 4시 (3), 오후 5시 (3), 오후 6시 (2)

최근 취소된 운행

11월 1일 (일), scheduled 20:20
10월 29일 (목), scheduled 18:23
10월 29일 (목), scheduled 17:28
10월 27일 (화), scheduled 18:53
10월 22일 (목), scheduled 16:41

OC Transpo는 개별 운행의 사유를 제공하지 않아서 표시하지 않습니다.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 8 of 619 trips we could check.

날짜별 예측 분석 열기

결론

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.5 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

Predicted waits All measured hours are 2.3 min longer than scheduled waits.

17:00 has 61% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 87% the rest of the day.

Only 98% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 20 hours with samples

00:00: 86.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 509 predictions, typically 0.6 min early
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 97.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 935 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
06:00: 87.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,655 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
07:00: 88.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,816 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
08:00: 68.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,089 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
09:00: 90.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,593 predictions, typically 0.2 min late
10:00: 90.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,897 predictions, typically 0.2 min late
11:00: 89.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,861 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
12:00: 86.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,877 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
13:00: 86.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,921 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
14:00: 88.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,012 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
15:00: 71.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,715 predictions, typically 2 min late
16:00: 68.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,084 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
17:00: 61.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,238 predictions, typically 3 min late
18:00: 78.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,413 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
19:00: 90.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,887 predictions, typically 0 min late
20:00: 82.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,898 predictions, typically 0.1 min early
21:00: 80.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,718 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
22:00: 85.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,564 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
23:00: 93.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,154 predictions, typically 0.5 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	시간	측정됨	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	17:00	3 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	17:00	61%	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemPredicted spacing varies	All measured hours	2.3 min extra wait	Manage the headway
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	98%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 3,238; Hours affected 1; Spread 14.1 min; Median delay 3 min; Suggested running time change 3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 17:00: 시간 17:00; 정시 61.2%; Measured arrivals 3,238; Shortfall 25.5 pts; Route median on time 86.7%
Predicted spacing varies · All measured hours: 정류장 7; Extra wait share 27.9%; 일치한 도착 35; 추가 대기 2.3 min; Scheduled wait 8.1 min
Coverage gap · All measured hours: 목표 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 98.1%; 운행 요일 6; Trips with a matching position 607; 시간표상 운행 619

이력, 신뢰도, 노선 분석 열기

노선 확인

How route 86 has been running

우리가 아는 내용을 짧게 정리했습니다. 답할 수 없는 질문은 그렇다고 알려 드립니다.

결론

운영사 예측은 대체로 예정 시간표와 가까웠습니다. 그래도 아래 문제 시간대를 확인하세요.

82 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 78,831 predictions checked

예측 표본 수: 표본 많음

Based on 78,831 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from 2026년 10월 5일 to 2026년 11월 2일.

Updated 2026. 11. 3. 오후 7:32

예측이 반복해서 달랐던 곳과 시간은 언제인가요?

이 목록은 예측과 시간표의 차이가 반복된 경우이며, 독립적으로 측정한 운행 문제가 아니에요. 위 결과와 같은 대상 예측을 쓰지만 시간대가 아니라 정류장별로 묶기 때문에, 두 목록이 줄마다 같지는 않을 수 있어요.

17시–18시: 39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (3,238 predictions over 14 days).
8시–9시: 32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (3,089 predictions over 14 days).
16시–17시: 32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (3,084 predictions over 14 days).

이 노선과 관련된 현재 공식 공지가 없습니다.

정류장별 예측 차이

COLONNADE / AD. 203
42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (232 predictions over 20 days).
이 정류장 열기
COLONNADE / AD. 217
42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (232 predictions over 20 days).
이 정류장 열기
COLONNADE / COLONNADE
39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (232 predictions over 20 days).
이 정류장 열기
COLONNADE / 40 COLONNADE
38 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (231 predictions over 20 days).
이 정류장 열기

노선별 운영 기관의 예측을 시간표와 비교한 것입니다. 특정 장소와 시간에 예측 차이가 반복된다는 점을 보여 줍니다. 실제 측정한 도착 시간이나 그 원인을 나타내지는 않습니다.

모든 운행과 날짜 확인

기간을 열면 각 운행일, 시간표상 운행, 데이터 공백, 관측된 공개 차량 ID, 그리고 이 요약의 정확한 집계를 볼 수 있습니다.

승객이 알고 싶어 하는 것

지금 취소된 운행이 있나요?: 0 of 12앞으로 4시간 안에 노선 종점에서 출발하는 운행을 확인합니다. 과거의 운행 취소율이 아닙니다.
피드 공백을 확인한 후 무정차 가능성이 있나요?: 12 of 619 checked trips need a closer look12 of 619 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 619 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
제공자의 예측은 시간표와 얼마나 달랐나요?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 9.9 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)82 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
운영사의 예측은 어떤 대기 시간을 뜻했나요?: 10.3 min average predicted wait2.3 min beyond the scheduled wait, based on 35 eligible predictions at 7 high-frequency stops over 2 days.

시간표 변경 확인

게시된 시간표: 변경 전과 후

이 내용은 현재 보관 중인 공식 시간표를 이전에 보관한 버전과 비교한 것입니다. 시간표 변경은 계획된 내용에 대한 사실일 뿐입니다. 실제로 운행이 있었다는 증거는 아닙니다.

Current published schedule began 2026년 10월 30일

공개된 각 시간표에서 선택한 운행일

새 시간표가 시작된 후 첫 번째 월요일과 그 일주일 전 월요일을 확인합니다. 모든 수치는 아래에 나온 보관된 공식 GTFS 버전에서 가져옵니다.

선택한 날짜 중 하나 이상에 날짜 지정으로 추가되거나 제외된 운행이 있습니다. 일반 평일의 증가가 아니라 공휴일 또는 특별 운행 상황으로 봐 주세요.

변경 전

확인한 운행 날짜: 2026년 10월 26일

시간표상 운행: 99
서로 다른 정류장 수(시간표 기준): 90
공개된 고유 경로 수: 5
공고된 운행 시간대: 05:01–01:01 next day

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

피드 지문: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

새 시간표

확인한 운행 날짜: 2026년 11월 2일

시간표상 운행: 99
서로 다른 정류장 수(시간표 기준): 90
공개된 고유 경로 수: 5
공고된 운행 시간대: 05:01–01:01 next day

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

피드 지문: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

변경 후에 서비스가 좋아졌나요?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 41,558 arrivals over 14 days; after has 10,958 arrivals over 4 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

체크섬을 사용하면 어떤 시간표 보관본으로 집계 수치를 만들었는지 누구나 확인할 수 있습니다. 집계 수치가 바뀌어도 원인, 취소, 운영사의 결정, 승객에게 미친 영향은 알 수 없습니다.

이 노선을 평가하는 방법: 모든 정류장에 서는 일반 노선

각 예정 도착에 대해 마지막 유효한 제공자 예측을 공식 시간표와 비교합니다. 독립적으로 측정한 도착이 아닙니다. 결과를 내려면 유효한 예측이 200건 이상 필요합니다. 5분 이내는 여기서 승객 기준으로 사용하는 목표입니다.

이 데이터로 증명할 수 없는 것

공개 데이터에는 믿을 만한 승객 수나 승객을 태우지 못하고 지나친 기록이 없습니다. 위치 정보가 없다고 해서 그것만으로 운행 취소, 미운행, 단축 회차, 또는 그 원인이 확인되는 것은 아닙니다.

정의, 기준값, 데이터 순서 보기

공식 현재 데이터: 명시된 운행 취소, 건너뛴 정류장, 진행 중인 공지입니다.
일치한 관측값: 공식 시간표와 연결된 차량 위치와 확정된 예측입니다.
공식 시간표입니다. 계획된 운행은 관측된 운행과 따로 구분합니다.
이용자와 운영 기관의 신고: 조사할 노선, 시간, 장소에 대한 단서이며, 그것만으로 수치 증거가 되지는 않습니다.

잠정 결과, 공개된 근거 자료

예측은 시간표와 어떻게 달랐나요?

매시간 예정된 도착에 대해 마지막으로 유효한 제공자 예측을 시간표와 비교합니다. “5분 이내”는 이 예측 차이를 뜻합니다. 실제로 측정한 도착이나 버스 운행의 증거가 아닙니다.

근거 기간: 2026년 10월 5일 to 2026년 11월 2일

시간표 기준 5분 이내: 82.1%
확인한 적격 예측: 78,831
데이터가 있는 평일: 19
95번째 백분위수 예측 지연: 9.9 min late

Patterns by hour (20)

Patterns by hour (20)
시간	정시	중앙값	95번째 백분위수	증거 자료
00:00	86.4%	0.6 min early	5 min late	509 · 14 days
05:00	97.5%	0.6 min late	3.9 min late	935 · 11 days
06:00	87.4%	0.4 min late	7.5 min late	2,655 · 15 days
07:00	88.9%	0.8 min late	6.6 min late	2,816 · 14 days
08:00	68.5%	2.2 min late	13.3 min late	3,089 · 14 days
09:00	90.3%	0.2 min late	5.2 min late	2,593 · 14 days
10:00	90.6%	0.2 min late	5.7 min late	1,897 · 14 days
11:00	89.1%	0.7 min late	5.8 min late	1,861 · 14 days
12:00	86.9%	0.7 min late	6.2 min late	1,877 · 14 days
13:00	86.2%	0.7 min late	5.9 min late	1,921 · 14 days
14:00	88.4%	0.6 min late	7.3 min late	2,012 · 14 days
15:00	71.4%	2 min late	11.2 min late	2,715 · 14 days
16:00	68.5%	2.2 min late	16.1 min late	3,084 · 14 days
17:00	61.2%	3 min late	17.1 min late	3,238 · 14 days
18:00	78.7%	0.8 min late	11.5 min late	2,413 · 14 days
19:00	90.6%	0 min late	5.3 min late	1,887 · 14 days
20:00	82.1%	0.1 min early	7.1 min late	1,898 · 14 days
21:00	80.8%	1.1 min late	7.6 min late	1,718 · 14 days
22:00	85.8%	1.1 min late	7.6 min late	1,564 · 14 days
23:00	93.3%	0.5 min late	5.2 min late	1,154 · 14 days

3 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

시간표에는 있지만 실시간으로 확인되지 않은 버스

607 / 619 scheduled trips published at least one position across 6 service days (98.1%).

18:002 / 28 trips without a position92.9%
20:002 / 28 trips without a position92.9%
06:002 / 38 trips without a position94.7%
17:002 / 48 trips without a position95.8%
21:001 / 26 trips without a position96.2%
19:001 / 28 trips without a position96.4%

확인된 결행이 아닙니다. 위치가 없다면 버스가 취소되었거나 놓쳤을 수 있습니다. 하지만 운행 ID가 배정되지 않았거나 운영사 피드에 빈 구간이 있을 수도 있습니다. Otranspo는 승객에게 중요한 정보이므로 이 공백을 게시합니다. 다만 결론은 정직하게 유지합니다.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 출처와 한계.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026 October 27, 2026

November 2, 2026 · 99 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 99 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:01– 05:30
Trip 27993020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:48 a.m. EST / 5:56 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:24– 05:46
Trip 27235020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:18 a.m. EST / 5:44 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:51– 06:20
Trip 35711020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:45 a.m. EST / 6:26 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:53– 06:17
Trip 3749020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:57 a.m. EST / 6:11 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:06– 06:40
Trip 5301020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:55 a.m. EST / 6:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:08– 06:32
Trip 10477020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:38 a.m. EST / 6:28 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:23– 06:43
Trip 32854020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:55 a.m. EST / 6:44 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:31– 06:54
Trip 3227020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:30 a.m. EST / 6:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:35– 07:09
Trip 17488020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:29 a.m. EST / 7:04 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:38– 07:02
Trip 36025020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:41 a.m. EST / 7:02 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:54– 07:14
Trip 14491020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:57 a.m. EST / 7:14 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:01– 07:25
Trip 18236020Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:02 a.m. EST / 7:35 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day