78,4 % of predicciones de llegada de autobuses were within five minutes. Sábados were the weak spot.

Horarios

Si las predicciones llegan tarde una y otra vez, puede que el horario merezca una revisión. Consulta los registros reales de llegada y de despacho antes de decidir si hay que cambiar el tiempo de recorrido.

Quién puede resolverlo

Un planificador de servicio

Cuánto cuesta

Costo no disponible hasta probar los efectos en flota, personal, recuperación y transbordos.

Operaciones

Si las predicciones de llegada varían mucho, hace falta una revisión operativa. El tráfico, el despacho, el embarque y el diseño del horario pueden influir. Estas predicciones por sí solas no permiten saber la causa ni la solución.

Quién puede resolverlo

Operaciones, y a menudo la propia calle

Cuánto cuesta

Costo no disponible hasta que se conozcan la causa operativa y la solución.

Test more scheduled running time

Test additional scheduled running time for these hours. This pattern supports the scenario, but fleet, labour, recovery, transfer and cost effects require operator validation.

• 1210:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  57.797 eligible predictions · 13 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 712:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  54.088 eligible predictions · 12 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 611:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  52.897 eligible predictions · 12 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1807:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  35.142 eligible predictions · 17 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 2011:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  24.434 eligible predictions · 13 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1415:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  24.650 eligible predictions · 9 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1409:00 to 14:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  21.261 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1112:00 to 16:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  18.551 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1913:00 to 22:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  14.669 eligible predictions · 9 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 6307:00 to 14:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  16.007 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 7011:00 to 16:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  14.666 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 6315:00 to 22:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  15.629 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5710:00 to 18:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  16.804 eligible predictions · 8 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5112:00 to 18:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  13.246 eligible predictions · 6 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5719:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  7708 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 2005:00 to 10:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  8288 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1120:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  8343 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1117:00 to 19:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  7193 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5707:00 to 09:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  5620 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 7021:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  4401 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5107:00 to 09:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  4225 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 700:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  2398 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1909:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  2048 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5123:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  576 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 5 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1800:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  516 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

Something other than the timetable

The prediction spread does not support a running-time change by itself. Test traffic, boarding load, crossings, terminal dispatch, vehicle assignment and operator availability against operational records; those cause data are not available here.

• 2014:00 to 18:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 27 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  7218 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 27 min later than the median

• 1416:00 to 18:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 22 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  6902 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 22 min later than the median

• 615:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  5016 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

• 7014:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 20 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  2617 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 20 min later than the median

• 5718:00 to 20:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 25 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  3813 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 25 min later than the median

• 1116:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  3572 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

• 1817:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 22 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  1828 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 22 min later than the median

• 7013:00

  At 13:00, 50 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 72 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

  2526 eligible predictions · 50% against 72% the rest of the day

• 1821:00

  At 21:00, 32 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 56 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

  2209 eligible predictions · 32% against 56% the rest of the day

• 1915:00

  At 15:00, 40 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 65 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

  1734 eligible predictions · 40% against 65% the rest of the day

Something other than the timetable, at night

The late-hour pattern does not establish a cause. Test terminal holds, prior-trip lateness, vehicle assignment, operator availability and any overnight traffic event against operational records; those records are not available here.

• 622:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 21 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  2865 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 21 min later than the median

• 2023:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  1356 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

• 5122:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  1601 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 1 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

• 2000:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  409 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 1 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

• 601:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 45 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  724 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · 95th-percentile prediction 45 min later than the median