No 829 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in 十一月Cancellations →

STO 线路 829: Le Manoir / De L'Île

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月28日 – 2026年11月3日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 24 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

24 with position · 0 to investigate · 6 excluded · 30 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月4日 23:50.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

6 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 24 / 30 (80%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月4日 22:48

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

This service purpose needs a different method. A general percentage could give a misleading picture.

Predictions in the source: 2,091
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: 2026年10月6日 – 2026年11月3日

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月5日

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

The general hourly comparison is not suitable for this service purpose. Source records remain available.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

公交车扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月3日: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月12日.

数值与解读

38% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 53 of 139 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

20% of pairs (28) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

公交车扎堆到站
时段	已检查的配对	扎堆	间隔过长
早高峰(上午 6 点至 9 点)	139	38% (53)	20% (28)

测量方式 →How we got this number每条线路的扎堆和缓慢路段 →

这条路线最慢的路段

Slowest: Départ école secondaire de l'île to SAINT-JOSEPH/de LORIMIER, 3.9 km/h actual against 13 km/h planned.

这条路线最慢的路段
起点	到	距离	计划速度	实际速度	已测量的行程	缓慢行程
Départ école secondaire de l'île	SAINT-JOSEPH/de LORIMIER	1.3 km	13 km/h	3.9 km/h	40	90%
SAINT-JOSEPH/RENÉ-ROGER	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	470 m	9.4 km/h	9 km/h	42	10%
SAINT-JOSEPH/de LORIMIER	SAINT-JOSEPH/RENÉ-ROGER	610 m	18.4 km/h	12.3 km/h	42	33%
SAINT-RÉDEMPTEUR/SAINT-ÉTIENNE	arrivée école secondaire de l'île	320 m	19.2 km/h	14.8 km/h	31	29%
LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	3.8 km	20.9 km/h	15.2 km/h	24	42%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	1.2 km	18.1 km/h	17.4 km/h	42	0%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	SAINT-RÉDEMPTEUR/SAINT-ÉTIENNE	2.1 km	18.2 km/h	18 km/h	32	0%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	1.2 km	18.4 km/h	18.4 km/h	32	0%

慢行程是指用时至少为计划时间的 1.5 倍。

测量方式 →

此线路的取消班次

这些词是什么意思 →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

过去四周内，这条线路没有计入的取消班次。我们无法核实的通知会列在下方。

未到（没有看到公交车，也没有通知），最近7天：在我们能核查的班次中没有。

这条线路通常何时繁忙

依据 STO 公交车报告的载客水平，统计最近八周的数据。如果有读数的班次中至少一半达到站位或更拥挤，该时段就标为通常拥挤。

这条线路通常何时繁忙	工作日	星期六	每周日
早上6点前	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足
上午 6 点至 9 点	通常有座位39.2% of 74 trips	读数不足	读数不足
上午9点至下午3点	通常有座位0% of 18 trips	读数不足	读数不足
下午3点至6点	通常很拥挤62.2% of 82 trips	读数不足	读数不足
晚上 6 点至 10 点	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足
晚上10点以后	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足

Based on 56 computed days.

来源：STO 公开实时车辆数据中的载客状态。STO 根据每辆公交车的载重传感器设定该状态（有座位：满载率低于 60%，有站位：低于 90%，已满：高于 90%）。
每个行程在每个时段只计一次,按其报告的最高载客量计算。
空车报告不计入，因为旧记录无法区分空车和没有传感器的车。
某个时段至少要有 12 趟行程，且分布在至少 4 个不同的日子，才会显示任何内容。节假日按其所属的星期几计算。

打开带日期的预测分析

结论

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 4.9 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 4.3 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 4.3 min along the route.

Scenario: 5 min more running time on 3 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 3 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: not enough data
07:00: 96.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 213 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
08:00: 93.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 197 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
09:00: not enough data
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 48.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 712 predictions, typically 4.9 min late
16:00: not enough data
17:00: not enough data
18:00: not enough data
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	时间	已测量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	15:00	4.9 min late	More running time

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 712; Hours affected 1; Spread 5.5 min; Median delay 4.9 min; Suggested running time change 4.9 min

打开历史、可靠性和线路分析

线路检查

How route 829 has been running

这是我们所知情况的简短摘要。如果我们无法回答某个问题，会明确说明。

结论

在评级之前,我们需要先确认这项服务应如何运行。

预测样本量: 样本较大

Based on 2,091 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日.

Updated 2026年11月4日 23:32

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

这些是预测时间与时刻表之间反复出现的差异，不是独立测得的服务故障。它们使用与上述结果相同的合格预测，但按站点而不是按时段分组，所以两个列表不一定逐行一致。

由于此服务需要针对特定用途的测试,问题时段未进行排名。

目前没有与这条线路相符的官方通知。

各站预测差异

我们还没有足够的各线路各站点历史数据，无法指出反复出问题的站点。乘客的报告只作为线索，不作为证据。

查看每个行程和日期

展开一个时间段,可查看每个服务日、预定班次、数据缺口、观测到的公开车辆编号,以及本摘要背后的确切数字。

乘客想知道什么

现在有班次被取消吗？: 没有实时取消情况的答案STO’s live trip-update feed did not answer this check. That is a feed gap. It does not mean zero cancellations, and it is not proof of a cancellation. Open the evidence to see the schedule, retained explicit cancellation notices, and every labelled data gap.
排除数据缺口后，可能的未出车情况？: 0 of 24 checked trips need a closer look0 of 24 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 6 of 30 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
运营方的预测与时刻表有何不同?: 证据还不够
运营方的预测意味着需要等多久？: 目前还没有路线级别的结果达到数据依据的门槛。这并不表示没有出现过服务间隔。

时刻表变更检查

已发布时刻表：变更前后

这是将当前保留的官方时刻表与上一个保留版本进行比较。时刻表变更说明的是原定计划，并不能证明某个班次确实运行过。

Current published schedule began 2026年11月2日

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

我们会查看新时刻表开始后的第一个星期一，以及提前一周的星期一。所有数字都来自下方列出的、已保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所选日期中，至少有一个日期采用了新增或取消的按日历日期安排的服务。请将其视为节假日或特别服务的情况，而不是普通工作日的增长。

之前

已核对的服务日期: 2026年10月26日

时刻表班次: 0
不同的预定站点: 0
已发布的不同路径: 0
已公布的服务时段: —–—

数据源指纹: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

新时刻表

已核对的服务日期: 2026年11月2日

时刻表班次: 6
不同的预定站点: 51
已发布的不同路径: 2
已公布的服务时段: 7:47–15:45

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

数据源指纹: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

变更后服务有改善吗？

我们会比较变更前后各14天内已确认的到站情况。只有变更前后两边都至少有7个服务日和200次到站记录时，我们才会发布比较结果。

Ordinary on-time scoring does not fit this route’s service purpose. The schedule counts remain visible, but the result waits for the purpose-specific evidence described below.

校验和可让任何人核实是哪份留存的时刻表得出这些数量。数量变化并不能说明原因、取消、运营方的决定或对乘客的影响。

如何评价这条线路: 校车线路

在有针对该用途的完成率和接客指标之前，不显示评级。

这些数据无法证明的事

公开数据源不提供可靠的乘客人数，也不提供乘客被错过的事件。缺少车辆位置本身，并不能证明班次已取消、未出车、提前折返，也不能说明原因。

查看定义、阈值和数据依据的顺序

官方实时数据：明确的取消、跳过的站点和当前有效的通知。
匹配的观测数据:与官方时刻表相关联的车辆位置和已确定的预测。
官方时刻表：计划的内容，与实际观测到的内容分开显示。
乘客和运营方的报告：这些是关于线路、时间和地点的线索，供进一步调查，本身不能作为数字证明。

初步结果,已公布的数据

此结果背后的数据

未核实该服务的用途,就不适合使用普通的准点评级。上方的路线核查说明了所需的接送、社区服务或活动方面的数据证据。您仍然可以查看下方记录的行程和数据缺口。

佐证时间段: 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日

已核查的合格预测: 2,091
有数据的工作日: 17

有时刻表的巴士，但没有实时观测记录

24 / 30 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (80.0%).

07:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
15:000 / 15 trips without a position100.0%

这不是已确认的未发车。 缺少位置可能表示公交车被取消或漏班，也可能表示行程编号未分配，或运营方数据源有缺口。Otranspo 公布这一缺口，因为它对乘客很重要，同时我们会如实说明，不下定论。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 来源和局限.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 6 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 3 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 3 with an unknown outcome.

07:47– 08:10
Trip sto:63296270Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:48– 08:11
Trip sto:63296271Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:49– 08:12
Trip sto:63296272Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
15:20– 15:45
Trip sto:63296267Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:06 p.m. EST / 3:52 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:20– 15:45
Trip sto:63296268Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:11 p.m. EST / 3:55 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:20– 15:45
Trip sto:63296269Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:19 p.m. EST / 4:40 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.