No 829 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

STO route 829: Le Manoir / De L'Île

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 21 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

21 with position · 0 to investigate · 9 excluded · 30 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 2:03 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

9 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 21 / 30 (70%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 1:08 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

This service purpose needs a different method. A general percentage could give a misleading picture.

Predictions in the source: 2,091
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

The general hourly comparison is not suitable for this service purpose. Source records remain available.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 20 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

38% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 44 of 115 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

23% of pairs (27) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	115	38% (44)	23% (27)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: Départ école secondaire de l'île to SAINT-JOSEPH/de LORIMIER, 4 km/h actual against 13 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
Départ école secondaire de l'île	SAINT-JOSEPH/de LORIMIER	1.3 km	13 km/h	4 km/h	37	89%
SAINT-JOSEPH/RENÉ-ROGER	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	470 m	9.4 km/h	9.2 km/h	39	8%
SAINT-JOSEPH/de LORIMIER	SAINT-JOSEPH/RENÉ-ROGER	610 m	18.4 km/h	12.3 km/h	39	31%
LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	3.8 km	20.9 km/h	15.3 km/h	21	43%
SAINT-RÉDEMPTEUR/SAINT-ÉTIENNE	arrivée école secondaire de l'île	320 m	19.2 km/h	16 km/h	28	21%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	1.2 km	18.1 km/h	17.5 km/h	39	0%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	SAINT-RÉDEMPTEUR/SAINT-ÉTIENNE	2.1 km	18.2 km/h	18.1 km/h	29	0%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	1.2 km	18.4 km/h	18.9 km/h	29	0%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

When this route is usually busy	Weekdays	Saturdays	Sundays
Before 6 am	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats38% of 71 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats0% of 17 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
3 to 6 pm	Usually busy62% of 79 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
After 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings

Based on 55 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 4.9 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 4.3 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 4.3 min along the route.

Scenario: 5 min more running time on 3 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 3 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: not enough data
07:00: 96.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 213 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
08:00: 93.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 197 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
09:00: not enough data
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 48.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 712 predictions, typically 4.9 min late
16:00: not enough data
17:00: not enough data
18:00: not enough data
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	15:00	4.9 min late	More running time

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 712; Hours affected 1; Spread 5.5 min; Median delay 4.9 min; Suggested running time change 4.9 min

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 829 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

We need to confirm how this service is meant to work before rating it.

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 2,091 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 5, 2026, 1:32 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

Problem times are not ranked because this service needs a purpose-specific test.

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

We do not yet have enough route-by-stop history to name a recurring problem stop. Rider reports are used as leads, not proof.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: No trips start in the next 4 hoursChecks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 0 of 21 checked trips need a closer look0 of 21 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 9 of 30 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: Not enough evidence yet
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 3, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 6
Distinct scheduled stops: 51
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 7:47 a.m.–3:45 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

New schedule

Service date checked: November 9, 2026

Scheduled trips: 6
Distinct scheduled stops: 51
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 7:47 a.m.–3:45 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Ordinary on-time scoring does not fit this route’s service purpose. The schedule counts remain visible, but the result waits for the purpose-specific evidence described below.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: School route

No grade is shown until a purpose-specific completion and pickup measure is available.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

Data behind this result

An ordinary on-time grade is not appropriate for this service without checking its purpose. The route check above explains the pickup, community-service or event evidence needed. You can still inspect the recorded trips and data gaps below.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Eligible predictions checked: 2,091
Weekdays with data: 17

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

21 / 30 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (70.0%).

07:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
15:003 / 15 trips without a position80.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 6 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 3 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 3 with an unknown outcome.

07:47– 08:10
Trip sto:63296270Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:50 a.m. EST / 8:14 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:48– 08:11
Trip sto:63296271Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:42 a.m. EST / 8:13 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:49– 08:12
Trip sto:63296272Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:50 a.m. EST / 8:16 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:20– 15:45
Trip sto:63296267Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
15:20– 15:45
Trip sto:63296268Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
15:20– 15:45
Trip sto:63296269Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown