Detour Route 56 South: Route 56 diverted from de Lucerne to Eastern.+1 more notice

No 56 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in 十一月Cancellations →

Previous measure: 48.4% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (9,739 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO 线路 56: Gal.Aylmer/Des Trembles/Cégep

开往 Cégep GRoy0 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月28日 – 2026年11月3日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 67 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

67 with position · 0 to investigate · 13 excluded · 80 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月4日 17:49.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 1 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

13 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 67 / 80 (83.8%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月4日 16:48

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

48.4%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 9,739
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: 2026年10月6日 – 2026年11月3日

The hours we have evidence for

6时38% · 356 predictions · 6 days
7时18% · 622 predictions · 6 days
8时14% · 317 predictions · 7 days
9时27% · 297 predictions · 8 days
10时19% · 346 predictions · 8 days
11时26% · 392 predictions · 9 days
12时49% · 705 predictions · 9 days
13时79% · 295 predictions · 8 days
14时79% · 326 predictions · 8 days
15时82% · 385 predictions · 9 days
16时57% · 299 predictions · 9 days
17时44% · 333 predictions · 9 days
18时74% · 363 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月4日

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

13 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

公交车扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月3日: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月12日.

数值与解读

13% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 144 of 1,101 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

4% of pairs (49) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

公交车扎堆到站
时段	已检查的配对	扎堆	间隔过长
早高峰(上午 6 点至 9 点)	1,101	13% (144)	4% (49)

测量方式 →How we got this number每条线路的扎堆和缓慢路段 →

这条路线最慢的路段

Slowest: CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY to de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS, 4.7 km/h actual against 20.3 km/h planned.

这条路线最慢的路段
起点	到	距离	计划速度	实际速度	已测量的行程	缓慢行程
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY	de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS	340 m	20.3 km/h	4.7 km/h	63	84%
PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	de LUCERNE/FRASER	3.8 km	20.7 km/h	10.4 km/h	84	68%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	3.8 km	24.8 km/h	13.2 km/h	97	73%
chemin d'AYLMER/ROYALE	SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES	450 m	17 km/h	15.8 km/h	103	20%
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/PRINCIPALE	de LUCERNE/FRASER	2.5 km	26.3 km/h	16.2 km/h	61	46%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	WILFRID-LAVIGNE/LEGUERRIER	2.6 km	20.8 km/h	17.7 km/h	85	20%
SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES	SAINT-RAYMOND/LOUISE-CAMPAGNA	3.1 km	19.2 km/h	21.3 km/h	102	3%
LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND	SAINT-RAYMOND/MARCEL-CHAPUT	3 km	19.7 km/h	21.8 km/h	83	0%

慢行程是指用时至少为计划时间的 1.5 倍。

测量方式 →

此线路的取消班次

这些词是什么意思 →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from 10月7日周三 to 11月3日周二.

Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

取消次数最多的时段: 6时 (1)

这条线路通常何时繁忙

依据 STO 公交车报告的载客水平，统计最近八周的数据。如果有读数的班次中至少一半达到站位或更拥挤，该时段就标为通常拥挤。

过去八周内,没有任何时段通常很拥挤。

这条线路通常何时繁忙	工作日	星期六	每周日
早上6点前	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足
上午 6 点至 9 点	通常有座位7.5% of 173 trips	读数不足	读数不足
上午9点至下午3点	通常有座位0.9% of 215 trips	读数不足	读数不足
下午3点至6点	通常有座位32.5% of 114 trips	读数不足	读数不足
晚上 6 点至 10 点	通常有座位6.6% of 61 trips	读数不足	读数不足
晚上10点以后	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足

Based on 56 computed days.

来源：STO 公开实时车辆数据中的载客状态。STO 根据每辆公交车的载重传感器设定该状态（有座位：满载率低于 60%，有站位：低于 90%，已满：高于 90%）。
每个行程在每个时段只计一次,按其报告的最高载客量计算。
空车报告不计入，因为旧记录无法区分空车和没有传感器的车。
某个时段至少要有 12 趟行程，且分布在至少 4 个不同的日子，才会显示任何内容。节假日按其所属的星期几计算。

打开带日期的预测分析

结论

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 5.1 to 7.8 min later than the timetable in 9 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.2 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 6.9 min along the route.

Wide prediction spread 16:00 to 19:00: the 95th percentile is 22.7 min later than the median.

08:00 has 14% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 44% the rest of the day.

Scenario: 5 to 8 min more running time on 48 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 13 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 37.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 356 predictions, typically 6.9 min late
07:00: 17.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 622 predictions, typically 16 min late
08:00: 13.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 317 predictions, typically 20.3 min late
09:00: 27.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 297 predictions, typically 7.8 min late
10:00: 19.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 346 predictions, typically 12.5 min late
11:00: 26.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 392 predictions, typically 7.3 min late
12:00: 48.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 705 predictions, typically 6.1 min late
13:00: 79% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 295 predictions, typically 0.4 min early
14:00: 79.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 326 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
15:00: 81.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 385 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
16:00: 57.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 299 predictions, typically 3.9 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
17:00: 43.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 333 predictions, typically 6.4 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
18:00: 73.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 363 predictions, typically 1.7 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data
prediction spread of 20 min or more between the 95th percentile and median

Findings
What	时间	已测量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	06:00 to 13:00 · 16:00 to 18:00	7.8 min late · 5.1 min late	More running time
ProblemWide prediction spread	16:00 to 19:00	22.7 min swing	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	08:00	14%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 06:00 to 13:00: Measured arrivals 3,035; Hours affected 7; Spread 10 min; Median delay 7.8 min; Suggested running time change 7.8 min
Wide prediction spread · 16:00 to 19:00: Measured arrivals 995; Hours affected 3; Spread 22.7 min; Median delay 3.9 min; Suggested running time change 3.9 min
Predictions later than timetable · 16:00 to 18:00: Measured arrivals 632; Hours affected 2; Spread 23.7 min; Median delay 5.1 min; Suggested running time change 5.1 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 08:00: 小时 08:00; 准点 13.9%; Measured arrivals 317; Shortfall 29.9 pts; Route median on time 43.8%

打开历史、可靠性和线路分析

线路检查

How route 56 has been running

这是我们所知情况的简短摘要。如果我们无法回答某个问题，会明确说明。

结论

在这个带日期的样本中，运营方的预测常常与时刻表相差很远。

48 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 9,739 predictions checked

预测样本量: 样本较大

Based on 9,739 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日.

Updated 2026年11月4日 17:32

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

这些是预测时间与时刻表之间反复出现的差异，不是独立测得的服务故障。它们使用与上述结果相同的合格预测，但按站点而不是按时段分组，所以两个列表不一定逐行一致。

8时–9时: 86 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (317 predictions over 7 days).
7时–8时: 83 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (622 predictions over 6 days).
10时–11时: 81 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (346 predictions over 8 days).
11时–12时: 74 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (392 predictions over 9 days).

2 current notices affect this route

• Detour Route 56 South
• Detour Route 56 North

各站预测差异

VANIER/de LUCERNE
98 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (120 predictions over 17 days).
打开此站点
VANIER/CRESCENT
97 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (121 predictions over 17 days).
打开此站点
chemin d'AYLMER/MORLEY-WALTERS
94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
打开此站点
VANIER/des VÉTÉRANS
94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
打开此站点

这些是按路线给出的服务方预测，并与时刻表作了对比。它们显示的是某地某时重复出现的预测差异，不是实测到达时间，也不能说明原因。

查看每个行程和日期

展开一个时间段,可查看每个服务日、预定班次、数据缺口、观测到的公开车辆编号,以及本摘要背后的确切数字。

乘客想知道什么

现在有班次被取消吗？: 0 of 1检查未来4小时内从线路起终点开始的行程。这不是历史取消率。
排除数据缺口后，可能的未出车情况？: 0 of 67 checked trips need a closer look0 of 67 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 13 of 80 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
运营方的预测与时刻表有何不同?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 22.0 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)48 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
运营方的预测意味着需要等多久？: 目前还没有路线级别的结果达到数据依据的门槛。这并不表示没有出现过服务间隔。

时刻表变更检查

已发布时刻表：变更前后

这是将当前保留的官方时刻表与上一个保留版本进行比较。时刻表变更说明的是原定计划，并不能证明某个班次确实运行过。

Current published schedule began 2026年11月2日

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

我们会查看新时刻表开始后的第一个星期一，以及提前一周的星期一。所有数字都来自下方列出的、已保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所选日期中，至少有一个日期采用了新增或取消的按日历日期安排的服务。请将其视为节假日或特别服务的情况，而不是普通工作日的增长。

之前

已核对的服务日期: 2026年10月26日

时刻表班次: 0
不同的预定站点: 0
已发布的不同路径: 0
已公布的服务时段: —–—

数据源指纹: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

新时刻表

已核对的服务日期: 2026年11月2日

时刻表班次: 16
不同的预定站点: 96
已发布的不同路径: 2
已公布的服务时段: 6:24–18:54

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

数据源指纹: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

变更后服务有改善吗？

我们会比较变更前后各14天内已确认的到站情况。只有变更前后两边都至少有7个服务日和200次到站记录时，我们才会发布比较结果。

Still collecting: before has 5,494 arrivals over 10 days; after has 840 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

校验和可让任何人核实是哪份留存的时刻表得出这些数量。数量变化并不能说明原因、取消、运营方的决定或对乘客的影响。

如何评价这条线路: 普通站站停靠线路

我们将每个预定到达班次的最后一个合格服务方预测与官方时刻表进行比较。这些不是独立测量的到达时间。一项结果至少需要 200 条合格预测。这里采用面向乘客的目标：误差在 5 分钟内。

这些数据无法证明的事

公开数据源不提供可靠的乘客人数，也不提供乘客被错过的事件。缺少车辆位置本身，并不能证明班次已取消、未出车、提前折返，也不能说明原因。

查看定义、阈值和数据依据的顺序

官方实时数据：明确的取消、跳过的站点和当前有效的通知。
匹配的观测数据:与官方时刻表相关联的车辆位置和已确定的预测。
官方时刻表：计划的内容，与实际观测到的内容分开显示。
乘客和运营方的报告：这些是关于线路、时间和地点的线索，供进一步调查，本身不能作为数字证明。

初步结果,已公布的数据

预测与时刻表相比如何?

每个小时，我们都会把某个预定到站班次最后一次符合条件的运营方预测与时刻表进行比较。“5 分钟内”指的是这个预测差异，不是实际测得的到站时间，也不能证明公交车已经运行。

佐证时间段: 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日

与时刻表相差不超过5分钟: 48.4%
已核查的合格预测: 9,739
有数据的工作日: 17
第95百分位预测延误: 22 min late

Patterns by hour (13)

Patterns by hour (13)
小时	准点	中位数	第95百分位	数据证据
06:00	37.6%	6.9 min late	18.9 min late	356 · 6 days
07:00	17.5%	16 min late	23.7 min late	622 · 6 days
08:00	13.9%	20.3 min late	30.3 min late	317 · 7 days
09:00	27.3%	7.8 min late	17.3 min late	297 · 8 days
10:00	19.4%	12.5 min late	16.7 min late	346 · 8 days
11:00	26.3%	7.3 min late	17.9 min late	392 · 9 days
12:00	48.5%	6.1 min late	23.4 min late	705 · 9 days
13:00	79.0%	0.4 min early	16.7 min late	295 · 8 days
14:00	79.1%	0.3 min late	17.8 min late	326 · 8 days
15:00	81.6%	0.8 min late	18.9 min late	385 · 9 days
16:00	57.2%	3.9 min late	26.5 min late	299 · 9 days
17:00	43.8%	6.4 min late	31.3 min late	333 · 9 days
18:00	73.8%	1.7 min late	22 min late	363 · 8 days

9 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

有时刻表的巴士，但没有实时观测记录

67 / 80 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (83.8%).

06:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
07:004 / 10 trips without a position60.0%
13:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
18:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
12:001 / 10 trips without a position90.0%
08:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%

这不是已确认的未发车。 缺少位置可能表示公交车被取消或漏班，也可能表示行程编号未分配，或运营方数据源有缺口。Otranspo 公布这一缺口，因为它对乘客很重要，同时我们会如实说明，不下定论。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 来源和局限.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 11 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 5 with an unknown outcome.

06:24– 07:07
Trip sto:63296203Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:47– 07:39
Trip sto:63295587Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:53– 07:45
Trip sto:63296395Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:26– 08:10
Trip sto:63296204Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:56– 08:40
Trip sto:63295295Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:56– 09:40
Trip sto:63290358Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:22 a.m. EST / 9:36 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:05– 10:45
Trip sto:63295375Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:18 a.m. EST / 10:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:03– 11:45
Trip sto:63295750Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:03 a.m. EST / 11:45 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:03– 12:45
Trip sto:63295472Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:17 p.m. EST / 12:55 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:10– 12:51
Trip sto:63294905Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:07 p.m. EST / 12:49 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
13:10– 13:52
Trip sto:63290360Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:55 p.m. EST / 1:36 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
14:10– 14:53
Trip sto:63290332Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 2:08 p.m. EST / 2:53 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

STO 线路 56: Gal.Aylmer/Des Trembles/Cégep

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

公交车扎堆到站

这条路线最慢的路段

此线路的取消班次

最近取消的班次

这条线路通常何时繁忙

What this route needs

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

查看每个行程和日期

乘客想知道什么

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

之前

新时刻表

变更后服务有改善吗？

预测与时刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

公交车扎堆到站

这条路线最慢的路段

此线路的取消班次

最近取消的班次

这条线路通常何时繁忙

What this route needs

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

查看每个行程和日期

乘客想知道什么

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

之前

新时刻表

变更后服务有改善吗？

预测与时刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day