Public methodology register
Average settled delay
- Version
- last-prediction-within-ten-minutes-v1
- ID
- network-reliability:average-delay
Definition
- Definition
- The arithmetic mean delay of selected final provider predictions; negative values are early and positive values are late.
- Formula
- AVG(settled delay seconds) for the route and published window.
- Units
- seconds, displayed in minutes
- Population
- The same selected final provider predictions used by the on-time percentage.
- Measurement window
- Rolling 30-day route-health window.
- Coverage
- Matched published predictions only; each included settled final provider prediction has equal weight.
- Publication eligibility
- Regular comparable bus routes with publishable final provider-prediction evidence; excluded records follow the prediction-settlement method.
- Scope
- Each route’s settled final provider predictions in the rolling 30-day route-health window.
- What this number can support
- The mean signed schedule difference. Early and late values can offset each other, so it must be read beside on-time share and the upper-tail delay.
Implementation status
- Source candidate
- Implemented in this source candidate.
- Public production
- The corrected metric version is implemented in source; public production deployment and verification remain unrecorded.
The final provider-prediction calculation is implemented in this source candidate. Public production verification for this corrected version is still not recorded.
Sources and identifiers
- Method
last-prediction-within-ten-minutes-v1Settled provider-prediction reliability method - Current API
reliability-evidenceCurrent network reliability public API
Exclusions
- Predictions more than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival are excluded, and delays outside ±90 minutes are removed as timetable-wrap outliers.
- OC Transpo rail is excluded because the operator does not publish realtime rail observations in the feed used by this method.
Uncertainty and interpretation
- The result describes matched published predictions, not every operated trip. Feed gaps and trip-matching limits can reduce coverage.
- Current network evidence is recomputed and is not stored here as an immutable historical snapshot.
Current evidence
Change history
No registered material change is recorded for this metric version.