Public methodology register

High-frequency excess predicted wait

Definition: The difference between waiting time implied by settled predicted arrival spacing and waiting time implied by scheduled spacing for eligible high-frequency route–stop hours.
Formula: Predicted EWT − scheduled EWT, where each EWT = Σ(gap²) ÷ (2 × Σ(gap)). Gaps are ordered independently for scheduled and predicted arrivals before aggregation.
Units: seconds, displayed in minutes
Scope: Completed service days in the latest 30 days that satisfy the prediction-matching quality threshold; route–stop hours require at least five matched arrivals and an average scheduled headway from two through twelve minutes.

Sources and identifiers

This is not an observed passenger-wait survey, and it does not include low-frequency route–stop hours or rail without supported realtime observations.
A negative result is not labelled better service; it only means the predicted spacing implied less wait than the imported timetable for the eligible population.

Predicted arrivals are the last supported predictions near scheduled time, not recorded door-open events. Feed and matching quality therefore remain attached to the result.

No registered material change is recorded for this metric version.