Both · Still running · Preliminary · monthly-service-report-live-preview-v4
November 2026 · both operators
77.3% of bus arrival predictions were within five minutes.
Every day in November
One service day: the key numbers above are the whole report.
Where routes land
The largest group, 67 routes, sits at 80 to 100%. 13 routes fall below 60%.- Under 20%0
- 20 to 40%0
- 40 to 60%13
- 60 to 80%13
- 80 to 100%67
93 routes had enough data to rank.
Every prediction, counted
- Within five minutes
- 147,432
- Early or late by more
- 43,174
Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.
Ask about this report
Ask about this reportHow we measure this
We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.
This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.
Full method, coverage and original editionFull evidence for this report
Findings by remedy, comparisons, every listed route, coverage, cancellations and how to cite this edition.
Still running · Preliminary
Both · November 2026
Briefing for decision makers
Use this page to ask focused questions of the operator. The figures describe saved bus prediction evidence; they are not an audited count of physical arrivals or all scheduled trips.
Finding to examine
The diagnosis for this month has not been published yet. It is produced once, when the month closes, because it re-reads the eligible provider predictions for the month.
Request from the operator
Provide stop-arrival or dispatch records for the flagged route-hours, the matching timetable version, and an operational explanation. Test cost, fleet, labour and transfer effects before adopting a fix.
Evidence and limits
190,606 final eligible bus predictions across 94 routes in this scorecard. Regional calendar coverage: 1 of 30 days with figures. Physical arrival times were not independently verified.
Questions for the record
- Do operator vehicle and dispatch records confirm the route-hour pattern shown here?
- Which scheduled trips did not run, and how complete were the public cancellation notices?
- What timetable, vehicle-position or arrival data can be released to validate bus results and make rail reporting possible?
The CSV exports the full month, including both operators, coverage and method. The operator selector changes the scorecard, cancellation subtotal and route findings; the daily series and calendar coverage remain regional, as do comparisons with other months.
What should change
Worked out from this month’s eligible provider predictions and ranked by the sample they affect. Each line says what the feed evidence shows, when, and which operator can review it.
The diagnosis for this month has not been published yet. It is produced once, when the month closes, because it re-reads the eligible provider predictions for the month.
Not covered here
- Whether scheduled trips actually ran. Provider predictions do not establish trip delivery; that requires separate evidence.
- Whether eligible provider predictions imply even or bunched spacing on frequent routes. Measured over a recent rolling window, which cannot be reconstructed for this closed month.
Against other months · both operators
The month before
October 2026: 77.6% of eligible provider predictions within five minutes
31 of 31 calendar days with evidence · 8,215,961 eligible provider predictions · 149 routes
Matched prediction comparison
This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.
This preserved publication uses an earlier method. Its expected-day counts are shown as originally recorded.
Previous complete calendar month · 2026-10-01–2026-10-31
Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2
Current
Eligible raw rate: —
Matched comparison rate: —
— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold
Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing
Baseline
Eligible raw rate: —
Matched comparison rate: —
— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold
Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing
A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing
Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —
Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing
Timetable feed versions: 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945, cdda76b5-d299-4755-bb81-ca8cd4d16647 / —
The same month last year
November 2025 was not measured by this site.
Matched prediction comparison
This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.
This preserved publication uses an earlier method. Its expected-day counts are shown as originally recorded.
Same complete calendar month last year · 2025-11-01–2025-11-30
Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2
Current
Eligible raw rate: —
Matched comparison rate: —
— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold
Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing
Baseline
Eligible raw rate: —
Matched comparison rate: —
— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold
Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing
A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing
Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —
Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing
Timetable feed versions: 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945, cdda76b5-d299-4755-bb81-ca8cd4d16647 / —
Furthest from the timetable in November 2026
The routes with the lowest share of eligible final predictions within five minutes of the timetable. A low figure does not establish the cause; inspect the route evidence before drawing conclusions.
- 16341.8%1,612 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 5342.2%3,684 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 1144.7%4,408 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 8150.3%4,421 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 1953.5%2,395 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 1253.8%5,687 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 9054.5%3,335 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 2054.7%2,838 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 655.4%5,079 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 5157.2%3,105 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
Closest to the timetable in November 2026
The routes with the highest share of eligible final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable. All use the same route class, evidence threshold and period. This is a relative ranking, not an operator target or measured arrival rate.
- 49100%390 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 17399.7%1,540 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 6799%840 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 64STO98.7%922 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 69STO98.5%466 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 15398%147 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 3597.8%1,693 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 19797.8%135 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 9397.6%1,228 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
- 77STO97.5%284 eligible trip-stop predictions · 1 of 1 days
Bus results only: where is the O-Train?
The O-Train is not included in these figures. This monthly scorecard is calculated from bus stop-time predictions saved from the operators’ public feeds.
Otranspo also tracks live bus positions, trip updates and cancellation notices to guide riders. This report uses a narrower historical dataset: the last eligible operator prediction for each scheduled bus stop visit, compared with the timetable. Those records have not been independently checked against a physical stop arrival.
The public feed used for this report provides no O-Train arrival predictions or live train positions. A comparable rail scorecard needs train observations or predictions with a documented method; the published train timetable alone cannot supply one.
Still running
This month has not finished. Figures are measured through Nov 1, 2026, covering 1 of 1 elapsed days, and will change as later service dates are settled.
Publication status
Preliminary
Preliminary. Updated daily. Final on Dec 1, 2026, once every day is counted. Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 5:28 a.m.. Method: monthly-service-report-live-preview-v4.
Days behind these figures
- Days measured
- 1 of 30
- Days with no eligible settled prediction
- 0
- Days with no record
- 0
Buses only. The feed used here supplies no O‑Train arrival predictions or live train positions; rail is excluded from every figure on this page.
Citing this page
OTranspo, service report for November 2026, settled Nov 2, 2026, 5:28 a.m.. https://otranspo.ca/en/insights/reports/2026-11
- Figures settled
- Nov 2, 2026, 5:28 a.m.
- Method
- monthly-service-report-live-preview-v4
This calculation is not a frozen publication. Quote it only with the date you read it, and check back for a published snapshot.
The download carries the same coverage statement and the same caveats as this page.