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September 2026 · STO

79.9% of bus arrival predictions were within five minutes. Saturdays were the weak spot.

Complete dataCompared with AugustHow we measure this
Within five minutes1,978,397 predictions
79.9%
Predictions checked1,978,3971,581,369 within · 397,028 outside
Best day85.1%Sunday, September 6Sun, Sep 6
Worst day65.5%Saturday, September 26Sat, Sep 26

Every day in September

Share within five minutes, each day
  • Weekday
  • Saturday
  • Sunday or holidaySunday / holiday
  • Partial dataPartial

September 3 is not counted (too few records from either operator). September 2 and 4 to 6 count only the operator with enough records.

Where routes land

The largest group, 28 routes, sits at 80 to 100%. 4 routes fall below 60%.
  • Under 20%0
  • 20 to 40%0
  • 40 to 60%4
  • 60 to 80%23
  • 80 to 100%28

55 routes had enough data to rank.

See the 4 routes below 60%

Every prediction, counted

Within five minutes
1,581,369
Early or late by more
397,028

Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.

Ask about this report

Answers use only this report’s numbers and say when the data cannot answer.

Ask about this report
How we measure this

We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.

This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.

Full method, coverage and original edition
Full evidence for this report

Findings by remedy, comparisons, every listed route, coverage, cancellations and how to cite this edition.

Calendar coverage complete · Frozen publication

Gatineau · STO · September 2026

Briefing for decision makers

Download this month (CSV)

Use this page to ask focused questions of the operator. The figures describe saved bus prediction evidence; they are not an audited count of physical arrivals or all scheduled trips.

Finding to examine

12 of 12 routes with a supported finding point to test more scheduled running time. Review the route-hours and supporting samples below before changing service.

Request from the operator

Provide stop-arrival or dispatch records for the flagged route-hours, the matching timetable version, and an operational explanation. Test cost, fleet, labour and transfer effects before adopting a fix.

Evidence and limits

1,978,397 final eligible bus predictions across 61 routes in this scorecard. Regional calendar coverage: 30 of 30 days with figures. Physical arrival times were not independently verified.

Questions for the record

  1. Do operator vehicle and dispatch records confirm the route-hour pattern shown here?
  2. Which scheduled trips did not run, and how complete were the public cancellation notices?
  3. What timetable, vehicle-position or arrival data can be released to validate bus results and make rail reporting possible?

The CSV exports the full month, including both operators, coverage and method. The operator selector changes the scorecard, cancellation subtotal and route findings; the daily series and calendar coverage remain regional, as do comparisons with other months.

How Gatineau · STO is doing

These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.

Measured over 924 route-hours. 1 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.

Scheduling

Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.

Who can fix it
A service planner
What it costs
Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.

Predictions close to the timetable

84.8%

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.

Route-hours with repeated late predictions

138of 924

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.

Route-hours with early predictions

2of 924

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.

Typical predicted delay

4.3min

The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.

Operations

Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.

Who can fix it
Operations, and often the road itself
What it costs
Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.

Prediction gap below twenty minutes

99%

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.

Route-hours with wide prediction gaps

9of 924

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.

Typical prediction gap

22.2min

The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.

Day by day

This daily series covers both operators, including when one operator is selected above. Each bar is one calendar day. A month reported as a single percentage cannot tell you whether it was uniformly average or fine except for one bad week.

Bars are scaled between 63% and 86%. Weekend days are marked. Service levels and the routes represented can differ from weekdays. The thin line under each bar is how much of that day this site actually measured, against the best-measured day of the month. A short line means the percentage above it rests on far less.

Open the day-by-day data table
Daily prediction punctuality, eligible-prediction count and relative evidence coverage
Service dateEvidence stateWithin five minutesEligible provider predictionsRelative coverageWeather
Sep 1, 2026Measured78.8%149,96441% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 2, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.1%77,114—Rain 29.1 mm, Visibility down to 0.8 km
Sep 3, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s—0—Visibility down to 0.2 km
Sep 4, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s78.7%81,375—No notable weather
Sep 5, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.3%43,558—No notable weather
Sep 6, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s85.1%43,142—No notable weather
Sep 7, 2026Measured83.5%183,39850% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 8, 2026Measured76%361,30599% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 9, 2026Measured74.1%362,59699% of the best-measured dayRain 19.6 mm
Sep 10, 2026Measured74.2%360,54999% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 11, 2026Measured78.9%365,971100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 12, 2026Measured66.4%234,16064% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.8 km
Sep 13, 2026Measured75.6%189,55752% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 14, 2026Measured80.6%361,66599% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 15, 2026Measured77.4%359,35598% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 16, 2026Measured76.8%365,074100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 17, 2026Measured76.1%363,75299% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 18, 2026Measured80.2%360,76799% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 19, 2026Measured69.1%233,52764% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 20, 2026Measured74.9%206,30156% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 21, 2026Measured81.1%360,34998% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 22, 2026Measured76.5%361,55399% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 23, 2026Measured76%360,78499% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 24, 2026Measured74.9%363,43999% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 25, 2026Measured78.2%358,75398% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 26, 2026Measured65.5%231,99863% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 27, 2026Measured74.9%205,42256% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 28, 2026Measured82.3%360,28998% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 29, 2026Measured78.2%362,07499% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 30, 2026Measured83.6%363,00699% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Open the day-by-day data table
Daily prediction punctuality, eligible-prediction count and relative evidence coverage
Service dateEvidence stateWithin five minutesEligible provider predictionsRelative coverageWeather
Sep 1, 2026Measured78.8%149,96441% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 2, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.1%77,114—Rain 29.1 mm, Visibility down to 0.8 km
Sep 3, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s—0—Visibility down to 0.2 km
Sep 4, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s78.7%81,375—No notable weather
Sep 5, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s81.3%43,558—No notable weather
Sep 6, 2026Partly captured; an operator left out, figure is not the network’s85.1%43,142—No notable weather
Sep 7, 2026Measured83.5%183,39850% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 8, 2026Measured76%361,30599% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 9, 2026Measured74.1%362,59699% of the best-measured dayRain 19.6 mm
Sep 10, 2026Measured74.2%360,54999% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 11, 2026Measured78.9%365,971100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 12, 2026Measured66.4%234,16064% of the best-measured dayVisibility down to 0.8 km
Sep 13, 2026Measured75.6%189,55752% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 14, 2026Measured80.6%361,66599% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 15, 2026Measured77.4%359,35598% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 16, 2026Measured76.8%365,074100% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 17, 2026Measured76.1%363,75299% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 18, 2026Measured80.2%360,76799% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 19, 2026Measured69.1%233,52764% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 20, 2026Measured74.9%206,30156% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 21, 2026Measured81.1%360,34998% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 22, 2026Measured76.5%361,55399% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 23, 2026Measured76%360,78499% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 24, 2026Measured74.9%363,43999% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 25, 2026Measured78.2%358,75398% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 26, 2026Measured65.5%231,99863% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 27, 2026Measured74.9%205,42256% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 28, 2026Measured82.3%360,28998% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 29, 2026Measured78.2%362,07499% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather
Sep 30, 2026Measured83.6%363,00699% of the best-measured dayNo notable weather

Bars are scaled between 63% and 86%. Weekend days are marked. Service levels and the routes represented can differ from weekdays. The thin line under each bar is how much of that day this site actually measured, against the best-measured day of the month. A short line means the percentage above it rests on far less.

Best day
Sep 30, 2026 · 83.6%
Worst day
Sep 26, 2026 · 65.5%
Weather that day: No notable weather.

Weather is shown for context. It is not used to adjust, excuse or score any figure on this page.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, daily and hourly climate data for Ottawa International Airport (climate ID 6106001). A climate day runs midnight to midnight, local standard time, so it can differ by an hour from the service day in summer. Historical climate data ↗

What should change

Worked out from this month’s eligible provider predictions and ranked by the sample they affect. Each line says what the feed evidence shows, when, and which operator can review it.

Test more scheduled running time

Test additional scheduled running time for these hours. This pattern supports the scenario, but fleet, labour, recovery, transfer and cost effects require operator validation.

  • 59STO14:00 to 20:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    38,299 eligible predictions · 6 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO14:00 to 21:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    21,834 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 32STO15:00 to 20:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    22,062 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 13 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 55STO16:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    17,521 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO15:00 to 19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    21,751 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 12 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 37STO15:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    11,359 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO07:00 to 10:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    9,186 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 45STO15:00 to 19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 7 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,442 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 7 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 7 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 31STO16:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    10,245 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 35STO16:00 to 19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    8,732 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 12 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 45STO06:00 to 10:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 6 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,247 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 6 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 56STO07:00 to 12:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,960 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 40STO15:00 to 19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,830 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 85STO15:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    6,856 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 55STO19:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    6,868 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 7 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 31STO08:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,966 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 59STO09:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    5,182 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 33STO13:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    4,554 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 56STO16:00 to 18:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 8 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    1,444 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 8 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 19 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 8 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO12:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    3,109 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 12 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 32STO12:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    2,694 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 12 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

  • 52STO00:00

    The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

    270 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

Something other than the timetable

The prediction spread does not support a running-time change by itself. Test traffic, boarding load, crossings, terminal dispatch, vehicle assignment and operator availability against operational records; those cause data are not available here.

  • 32STO16:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    5,473 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 7 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

  • 52STO16:00 to 18:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 21 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    6,044 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 21 min later than the median

  • 45STO17:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 21 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    1,991 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 21 min later than the median

  • 56STO16:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 21 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    668 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 8 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 21 min later than the median

  • 55STO16:00

    At 16:00, 47 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 75 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    8,247 eligible predictions · 47% against 75% the rest of the day

  • 59STO16:00

    At 16:00, 45 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 74 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    7,518 eligible predictions · 45% against 74% the rest of the day

  • 33STO16:00

    At 16:00, 49 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 80 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    6,158 eligible predictions · 49% against 80% the rest of the day

  • 32STO16:00

    At 16:00, 42 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 74 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    5,473 eligible predictions · 42% against 74% the rest of the day

  • 37STO16:00

    At 16:00, 50 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 82 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    4,243 eligible predictions · 50% against 82% the rest of the day

  • 35STO16:00

    At 16:00, 49 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 83 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    3,500 eligible predictions · 49% against 83% the rest of the day

  • 31STO16:00

    At 16:00, 58 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 79 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    4,891 eligible predictions · 58% against 79% the rest of the day

  • 40STO16:00

    At 16:00, 38 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 73 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    1,861 eligible predictions · 38% against 73% the rest of the day

  • 56STO08:00

    At 08:00, 19 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 63 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

    998 eligible predictions · 19% against 63% the rest of the day

  • 45STO09:00

    The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 25 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

    80 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 9 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 25 min later than the median

Not covered here

  • Whether scheduled trips actually ran. Provider predictions do not establish trip delivery; that requires separate evidence.
  • Whether eligible provider predictions imply even or bunched spacing on frequent routes. Measured over a recent rolling window, which cannot be reconstructed for this closed month.

Against other months · both operators

The month before

August 2026: 78.4% of eligible provider predictions within five minutes

28 of 31 calendar days with evidence · 3,486,624 eligible provider predictions · 148 routes

Matched prediction comparison

This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

Previous complete calendar month · 2026-08-01–2026-08-31

Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

Current

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

Baseline

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

A matched difference is withheld: Timetable provenance is missing

Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. Timetable provenance is missing

    Timetable feed versions: — / —

    The same month last year

    September 2025 was not measured by this site.

    Matched prediction comparison

    This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

    Expected service days use archived route calendars and exceptions. Dates without scheduled service are excluded; missing lineage withholds the comparison.

    Same complete calendar month last year · 2025-09-01–2025-09-30

    Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

    Current

    Eligible raw rate: —

    Matched comparison rate: —

    — / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

    Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

    Baseline

    Eligible raw rate: —

    Matched comparison rate: —

    — / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

    Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. A comparison period is missing

    A matched difference is withheld: A comparison period is missing

    Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

    Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. A comparison period is missing

      Timetable feed versions: — / —

      Furthest from the timetable in September 2026

      The routes with the lowest share of eligible final predictions within five minutes of the timetable. A low figure does not establish the cause; inspect the route evidence before drawing conclusions.

      • 45STO44.8%11,025 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 29STO56.7%4,286 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 23STO58.6%6,745 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 56STO58.6%13,523 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 47STO60.6%5,665 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 41STO60.8%8,561 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 52STO61.3%56,524 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days
      • 27STO63.7%6,835 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 40STO66.2%12,172 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 28STO68.1%4,784 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days

      Closest to the timetable in September 2026

      The routes with the highest share of eligible final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable. All use the same route class, evidence threshold and period. This is a relative ranking, not an operator target or measured arrival rate.

      • 98STO97.8%2,882 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 75STO94.2%47,988 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days
      • 77STO93.2%18,301 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days
      • 72STO92.1%5,888 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days
      • 79STO91.9%8,135 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 69STO91%26,840 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days
      • 62STO90.4%33,993 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 73STO90.4%20,976 eligible trip-stop predictions · 19 of 30 days
      • 63STO90.2%27,397 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days
      • 71STO89.7%52,906 eligible trip-stop predictions · 28 of 30 days

      Cancellation records saved

      These are saved operator records that a trip was cancelled or deleted. Repeated updates to the same trip and notice type count once; one trip can have both types. A later update may change its status. This is separate from the timetable comparison.

      What counts as cancelled, and why trips are cancelled

      Retained records
      234
      Ottawa · OC Transpo
      1,439
      Gatineau · STO
      234

      Records were saved on 30 service dates in this month. Daily archive coverage has not been verified, so this is not a complete monthly cancellation total. Earliest saved record in the archive: Aug 28, 2026.

      Bus results only: where is the O-Train?

      The O-Train is not included in these figures. This monthly scorecard is calculated from bus stop-time predictions saved from the operators’ public feeds.

      Otranspo also tracks live bus positions, trip updates and cancellation notices to guide riders. This report uses a narrower historical dataset: the last eligible operator prediction for each scheduled bus stop visit, compared with the timetable. Those records have not been independently checked against a physical stop arrival.

      The public feed used for this report provides no O-Train arrival predictions or live train positions. A comparable rail scorecard needs train observations or predictions with a documented method; the published train timetable alone cannot supply one.

      Calendar coverage complete

      Every calendar day is accounted for: 30 of 30 days were measured and the remaining days, if any, have a recorded explanation. Publication status is shown separately below.

      Publication status

      Frozen publication

      Published on Oct 4, 2026, 5:14 p.m. under monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v15. This version is stored as a snapshot and will not be recomputed when the method or source data changes.

      This month is published from route days built with settled-route-histogram-v1: one final provider prediction per trip, stop and Toronto service date. The newer v2 build, which keeps each trip instance separate, cannot be applied to this month because its recorded predictions do not carry trip-instance identifiers. Comparisons with other months are withheld for the same reason.

      This edition replaces the one published under monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v14. The cancellation count was recounted. The rule is the same: a retained notice for a trip in the published timetable counts only when no qualifying later matching vehicle observations were retained (matching observations covering at least ten minutes after the recorded notice time). Notices with those observations are excluded; the observations do not establish that a notice was withdrawn or that the whole trip was completed. Partly captured operator-days are now also left out of the totals. The earlier edition counted 1,688 cancellations and is kept unchanged. Earlier edition (CSV)

      Days behind these figures

      Days measured
      30 of 30
      Days with no eligible settled prediction
      0
      Days with no record
      0

      Buses only. The feed used here supplies no O‑Train arrival predictions or live train positions; rail is excluded from every figure on this page.

      Citing this page

      OTranspo, service report for September 2026, settled Oct 4, 2026, 5:14 p.m.. https://otranspo.ca/en/insights/reports/2026-09?operator=sto

      Figures settled
      Oct 4, 2026, 5:14 p.m.
      Method
      monthly-service-report-settled-v1-days-v15

      The download carries the same coverage statement and the same caveats as this page.

      Download this month (CSV)How these figures are produced