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Ward 16 · Ottawa · Councillor: Riley Brockington

River

River: 78.2% of predictions within five minutes.

Partial data · 2 days partly captured
Within five minutes
78.2%
Stops in the ward
328
Routes serving it
31
Cancelled trips
Not available yet
Not counted per ward yet

Where it is slowest

  • 80% and up 10
  • 60 to 80% 10
  • Under 60% 0
  • Too little data 9

Routes serving the ward, by their share of predictions within five minutes. Each route result covers the whole route.

Routes in this ward

Routes in this ward, least reliable first
RouteWithin 5 minCancelledCrowding
19865.0%Not publishedNot published
5365.8%Not publishedNot published
5667.8%Not publishedNot published
669.4%Not publishedNot published
8170.6%Not publishedNot published
11071.6%Not publishedNot published
8074.2%Not publishedNot published
11175.5%Not publishedNot published

Cancellations and crowding are not published per route yet. 9 routes with too little data or a different service purpose are left out.

All routes and their sources

One-page brief

A printable summary of this ward for council and community meetings, with the same numbers, the method in plain words and dated sources.

What can be verified in River?

Arrival predictions, the imported timetable and train notices. Each is shown with its own source.

Provider prediction agreement

78.2%

of eligible predictions within five minutes of schedule

How this compares
Rank 12 of 22 · median 78.4%

Service, per the imported timetable

Scheduled trips at ward stops
Not available yet
Routes
29
Train lines
2

Current service inside this boundary

The live buses inside this boundary are on the Map tab.

Prediction measure, timetable inventory and methods

Service delivery · evidence state

Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Cancellations at stops in this ward

Not publishable

No zero or missed trip is inferred when exact stop calls cannot be published.

Predictions at stops inside the ward

78.2% within five minutes of the timetable across 463,127 eligible final provider predictions and 20 weekdays. These are not verified physical arrivals.

Predictions do not prove physical arrival.

Routes to inspect

Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

If available, these are route-wide vehicle-position matches for routes serving the ward. They do not locate a missed trip inside this ward or prove a cancellation. Each comparison uses scheduled trips for that same route and window.

Scheduled calls, sources and limits

31 routes · 328 stops. Timetable inventory, not trips delivered.

Cancellations at stops in this ward

Local count cannot be published

Exact stop-call evidence could not be read for Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026. No zero is assumed.

Dates, source versions and limits

Method: retained-pre-service-exact-trip-stop-call-v1. Cancellation-feed completeness and position coverage are unverified.

The retained timetables were fetched, imported and first activated before the service day. The archive does not prove they remained the active timetables throughout that period. Comparisons between places remain unavailable.

    Verdict

    What would fix transit here

    Worked out from the routes that serve this ward. Each item names the route, when it happens, and what would change it.

    12 of 20 show repeated provider predictions later than the timetable, consistent with a possible scheduled running-time shortfall. A scheduler should test that scenario against operations; labour, fleet, recovery and transfer impacts are not established here.

    Worst here: route 53, predictions later than timetable 14:00 to 19:00, 4.9 min late.

    Best here: route 98, observed-position lower bound, 100%.

    20 of 20 routes here had something measurable to report.

    Arrivals within five minutes, by hour of day, across the 20 routes graded here, last 14 days
    1. 00:00: 90.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,184 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
    2. 01:00: 85% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 5,802 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
    3. 02:00: 92.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,652 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
    4. 03:00: 89.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,418 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
    5. 04:00: 90.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 5,926 predictions, typically 1 min late
    6. 05:00: 88.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 23,003 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
    7. 06:00: 88.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 50,525 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
    8. 07:00: 82.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 67,304 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
    9. 08:00: 74.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 67,793 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
    10. 09:00: 81.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 66,221 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
    11. 10:00: 82.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 63,013 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
    12. 11:00: 79% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 61,372 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
    13. 12:00: 77.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 61,919 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
    14. 13:00: 78.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 62,774 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
    15. 14:00: 77% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 64,292 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
    16. 15:00: 68.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 67,909 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
    17. 16:00: 65.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 70,357 predictions, typically 3 min late
    18. 17:00: 65.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 72,743 predictions, typically 2.9 min late
    19. 18:00: 70.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 65,816 predictions, typically 2.4 min late
    20. 19:00: 77.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 51,731 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
    21. 20:00: 81.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 47,132 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
    22. 21:00: 82.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 42,054 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
    23. 22:00: 84.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 37,352 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
    24. 23:00: 87.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 29,990 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
    • 90% or more of predictions within five minutes
    • 80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
    • under 80% of predictions within five minutes
    • not enough data
    Findings
    WhatWhenMeasuredScenario or next investigation
    ProblemPredictions later than timetable53681110809256441111988611712 routes14:00 to 19:00 … 01:004.9 min late … 7.2 min lateMore running time
    ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match6539244861111121051981175611 routes17:00 … 01:0046% … 33%Operations, not the timetable
    ProblemWide prediction spread1056198801175 routes17:00 … 02:0025.1 min swing … 37.9 min swingOperations, not the timetable
    ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable110442 routes21:00 · 01:001.6 min early · 2.7 min earlyLess running time, or holding points
    StrengthObserved-position lower bound98116921984 routesAll measured hours100%Keep what works
    CaveatCoverage gap10553566108644881118511090808111211716 routesAll measured hours97% … 96%More observation, not a service change

    O-Train evidence

    What we know about train service here

    Open the train observation report

    Trains are not in the public data feed

    The bus punctuality reports compare archived arrival predictions with published schedules. They do not count independently measured physical arrivals. Otranspo has no comparable public train-position dataset for these reports, so those bus figures cannot show where a train is or whether Lines 1, 2 and 4 run on time.

    Publishing train positions, their timestamps, and the measurement method would help build a separate, verifiable record of rail service. The missing dataset does not establish how the trains performed.

    Recent shared train observations

    These are rider sightings approved by a moderator. They show a reported time and place. They are not official train positions, a complete train count, or proof of a cause.

    No approved rider observation matches this place or line in the last 31 days. That does not mean no train ran or no problem occurred.

    How RIVER is doing

    These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.

    Measured over 388 route-hours. 4 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.

    Scheduling

    Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.

    Who can fix it
    A service planner
    What it costs
    Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.

    Predictions close to the timetable

    86.9%

    Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.

    Route-hours with repeated late predictions

    49of 388

    Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.

    Route-hours with early predictions

    2of 388

    Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.

    Typical predicted delay

    3.7min

    The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.

    Operations

    Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.

    Who can fix it
    Operations, and often the road itself
    What it costs
    Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.

    Prediction gap below twenty minutes

    98.5%

    Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.

    Route-hours with wide prediction gaps

    6of 388

    Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.

    Typical prediction gap

    29min

    The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.

    Service, per the imported timetable

    Scheduled transit, provider prediction agreement with the timetable, and public services in this ward.

    Provider prediction agreement

    78.2% of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable. 361,965 of 463,127 settled trip-stop predictions at stops inside this ward matched that range across 20 weekdays with feed evidence, from Oct 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. These are provider predictions, not independently observed arrivals.

    2 partial-capture days not counted.

    Predictions within five minutes
    361,965
    Eligible trip-stop predictions
    463,127
    Observed days
    20 weekdays

    How this compares

    Ranked 12 of 22 measured wards. 0.2 points below the city median of 78.4%.

    Highest: ward 22 at 85.1%. Lowest: ward 21 at 60.3%.

    Only wards whose evidence meets the publication threshold are ranked. Same window and same method for each.

    Which routes need closer review

    20 of the 29 routes serving this ward have enough provider-prediction evidence to compare. Lowest timetable agreement first.

    1. 198Open route
      65.0%Predictions within five minutes

      6,081 eligible predictions across the whole route

    2. 53Open route
      65.8%Predictions within five minutes

      132,043 eligible predictions across the whole route

    3. 56Open route
      67.8%Predictions within five minutes

      59,469 eligible predictions across the whole route

    4. 6Open route
      69.4%Predictions within five minutes

      191,599 eligible predictions across the whole route

    5. 81Open route
      70.6%Predictions within five minutes

      146,779 eligible predictions across the whole route

    6. 110Open route
      71.6%Predictions within five minutes

      113,377 eligible predictions across the whole route

    7. 80Open route
      74.2%Predictions within five minutes

      181,776 eligible predictions across the whole route

    8. 111Open route
      75.5%Predictions within five minutes

      114,122 eligible predictions across the whole route

    9. 92Open route
      76.6%Predictions within five minutes

      28,608 eligible predictions across the whole route

    10. 10Open route
      77.5%Predictions within five minutes

      110,602 eligible predictions across the whole route

    9 more routes here are not ranked: school, express, shopper or event service, whose schedule result does not compare the same way.

    Vehicle visibility to investigate

    Vehicle visibility to investigate

    The current summary uses seven days. For every route, you can also open yesterday, the last 7 days, or the last 30 days and inspect the day, scheduled trip, excluded feed gaps, and every observed public vehicle ID. An absence does not prove a vehicle fault or operator decision.

    Routes serving the ward

    31 scheduled routes

    Map & current service

    Current service inside this boundary

    Scheduled lines, stops, and observed buses share one map. Select a route or vehicle for details.

    Evidence & sources

    Imported municipal polygon · 40 boundary vertices · City of Ottawa ward boundaries · imported Aug 4, 2026

    ━ 29 bus routes═ 2 train lines● 328 stops
    Loading live feed

    Public amenity record for this ward

    Public washrooms and drinking water

    Choose a category to check which location details are available.
    Public washrooms (City data) 10

    The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.

    Drinking water (City data) 8

    The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.

    Rate or report an issue

    Rider evidence

    Community reports

    Signals below are moderated community aggregates, not official operator notices or reliability scores.

    You can report without signing in. Anonymous reports count a little less when we calculate public patterns. You can add an account after submitting.

    Report a specific problem

    Emergency: call 9-1-1. Check official OC Transpo or STO notices before travelling.

    Civic evidence brief

    The identity, boundary, contacts, service scope and evidence dates behind this ward report, kept together so the page can be cited without losing its qualifications.

    Municipality
    City of Ottawa, Ontario
    Geographic unit
    Official City of Ottawa municipal ward 16: RIVER
    Boundary and vintage
    City ward layer · effective not published · imported August 4, 2026
    Official civic contacts
    • Riley Brockington · Councillor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
    • Mark Sutcliffe · Mayor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
    Relevant scheduled service
    31 public route records with a stop inside this boundary · operators: OC Transpo
    Transit evidence vintage
    Timetable import: not published · reliability window: Oct 3, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

    A ward boundary, route inventory, destination list, population count or employment count supplies civic context. None of those values alone measures passenger demand, household trip effects, transfers or daily attendance.

    Ottawa wards are municipal wards. They are not Gatineau electoral districts, and results from the two boundary systems are not interchangeable.

    Evidence behind this pageOpen the definition, method, sources, dates, coverage, and known limits.

    What is being shown

    A ward-level inventory of scheduled transit, public washrooms, drinking-water locations, and eligible final OC Transpo provider predictions at stops inside the ward.

    How it was produced

    Current imported records are assigned by point-in-polygon to the sourced ward boundary. Reliability uses one eligible final provider prediction per trip, stop, and service date in the latest 28 completed service days. Within five minutes is measured against the timetable, not a physical arrival. Publication requires 20 weekdays with prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions.

    Evidence dates

    Imported
    Computed or assembled
    Sample
    463,127 eligible settled provider predictions across 20 weekdays with prediction evidence support the reliability result.
    Method or data version
    ward-counts-v1 + ward-stop-settled-arrivals-purpose-aware-v3
    Source checksum
    ward-reliability:6fd57abd138503d0bbc9995608f77fbcdb2b1a54a27312c7717c2c283ca175b3

    Sources

    Limits to keep in mind

    • Counts describe the published inventory inside the boundary, not service quality or access from every address.
    • Reliability covers final OC Transpo provider predictions at geographically assigned stops; physical arrivals are not independently measured. Rail and trips without eligible prediction evidence are not represented.
    • An unavailable count remains unavailable. It is not changed to zero.
    Suggest a factual correction
    How we measure this

    For each trip, stop and service date at stops inside the ward, we keep the last eligible OC Transpo prediction and compare it with the timetable. It counts as within five minutes when the two are no more than five minutes apart. This is not a physical arrival.

    The window is the latest 28 completed service days. A result is published only with 20 weekdays of prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions. Route results cover each whole route, not only the part inside the ward.

    Read the full method

    Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – City of Ottawa.