Ward 10 · Ottawa · Councillor: Jessica Bradley

Gloucester-Southgate

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Gloucester-Southgate: 83.0% of predictions within five minutes.

Partial data · 2 days partly captured

Within five minutes: 83.0%
Stops in the ward: 361
Routes serving it: 29
Cancelled trips: Not available yet; Not counted per ward yet

Where it is slowest

80% and up 12
60 to 80% 6
Under 60% 0
Too little data 10

Routes serving the ward, by their share of predictions within five minutes. Each route result covers the whole route.

Routes in this ward

Routes in this ward, least reliable first
Route	Within 5 min	Cancelled	Crowding
198	65.0%	Not published	Not published
6	69.4%	Not published	Not published
110	71.6%	Not published	Not published
92	76.6%	Not published	Not published
48	78.1%	Not published	Not published
41	78.8%	Not published	Not published
44	80.3%	Not published	Not published
117	81.5%	Not published	Not published

Cancellations and crowding are not published per route yet. 10 routes with too little data or a different service purpose are left out.

All routes and their sources

One-page brief

A printable summary of this ward for council and community meetings, with the same numbers, the method in plain words and dated sources.

Open the brief Compare with another ward

What can be verified in Gloucester-Southgate?

Arrival predictions, the imported timetable and train notices. Each is shown with its own source.

Provider prediction agreement

83.0%

of eligible predictions within five minutes of schedule

How this compares: Rank 4 of 22 · median 78.4%

Service, per the imported timetable

Scheduled trips at ward stops: Not available yet
Routes: 28
Train lines: 1

Current service inside this boundary

Open the live map

The live buses inside this boundary are on the Map tab.

Prediction measure, timetable inventory and methods

Service delivery · evidence state

Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Cancellations at stops in this ward

Not publishable

No zero or missed trip is inferred when exact stop calls cannot be published.

Predictions at stops inside the ward

83% within five minutes of the timetable across 366,976 eligible final provider predictions and 20 weekdays. These are not verified physical arrivals.

Predictions do not prove physical arrival.

Routes to inspect

Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

If available, these are route-wide vehicle-position matches for routes serving the ward. They do not locate a missed trip inside this ward or prove a cancellation. Each comparison uses scheduled trips for that same route and window.

117
43 of 45 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle position
Inspect days
697
24 of 25 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle position
Inspect days
105
662 of 682 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle position
Inspect days

Scheduled calls, sources and limits

29 routes · 361 stops. Timetable inventory, not trips delivered.

Cancellations at stops in this ward

Local count cannot be published

Exact stop-call evidence could not be read for Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026. No zero is assumed.

Dates, source versions and limits

Method: retained-pre-service-exact-trip-stop-call-v1. Cancellation-feed completeness and position coverage are unverified.

The retained timetables were fetched, imported and first activated before the service day. The archive does not prove they remained the active timetables throughout that period. Comparisons between places remain unavailable.

Verdict

What would fix transit here

Worked out from the routes that serve this ward. Each item names the route, when it happens, and what would change it.

11 of 18 show repeated provider predictions later than the timetable, consistent with a possible scheduled running-time shortfall. A scheduler should test that scenario against operations; labour, fleet, recovery and transfer impacts are not established here.

Worst here: route 6, predictions later than timetable 15:00 to 19:00, 4.1 min late.

Best here: route 98, observed-position lower bound, 100%.

18 of 18 routes here had something measurable to report.

Arrivals within five minutes, by hour of day, across the 18 routes graded here, last 14 days

00:00: 89.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 10,325 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
01:00: 87.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,654 predictions, typically 1 min late
02:00: 92.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,652 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
03:00: 89.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,418 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
04:00: 86.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 4,793 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
05:00: 89.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 17,391 predictions, typically 1 min late
06:00: 86.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 32,828 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
07:00: 84.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 41,231 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
08:00: 78.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 41,120 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
09:00: 83.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 37,645 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
10:00: 85.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 36,594 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
11:00: 81.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 36,200 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
12:00: 78.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 36,952 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
13:00: 78.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 36,340 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
14:00: 77.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 35,141 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
15:00: 71.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 38,423 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
16:00: 68.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 39,746 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
17:00: 68.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 44,028 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
18:00: 74.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 38,483 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
19:00: 81.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 30,080 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
20:00: 85.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 27,072 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
21:00: 84.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,732 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
22:00: 89.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 20,352 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
23:00: 89.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 17,818 predictions, typically 1.2 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable6 110 92 44 41 198 40 47 93 43 11711 routes	15:00 to 19:00 … 04:00	4.1 min late … 4.6 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match6 92 44 41 40 93 105 43 47 198 197 117 9413 routes	17:00 … 06:00	46% … 71%	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemWide prediction spread105 6 198 1174 routes	17:00 … 02:00	25.1 min swing … 37.9 min swing	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable110 197 47 94 445 routes	21:00 … 01:00	1.6 min early … 2.7 min early	Less running time, or holding points
StrengthObserved-position lower bound98 40 93 116 92 47 94 1988 routes	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works
CaveatCoverage gap105 6 44 41 110 48 90 117 197 4310 routes	All measured hours	97% … 100%	More observation, not a service change

O-Train evidence

What we know about train service here

Open the train observation report

Trains are not in the public data feed

The bus punctuality reports compare archived arrival predictions with published schedules. They do not count independently measured physical arrivals. Otranspo has no comparable public train-position dataset for these reports, so those bus figures cannot show where a train is or whether Lines 1, 2 and 4 run on time.

Publishing train positions, their timestamps, and the measurement method would help build a separate, verifiable record of rail service. The missing dataset does not establish how the trains performed.

Recent shared train observations

These are rider sightings approved by a moderator. They show a reported time and place. They are not official train positions, a complete train count, or proof of a cause.

No approved rider observation matches this place or line in the last 31 days. That does not mean no train ran or no problem occurred.

Share what you observed Check all official service alerts Open train research and history

Official timetable

OC Transpo does not publish O-Train positions or arrival predictions in the public feed Otranspo receives. Schedules, official alerts, and rider observations are shown separately so one source cannot impersonate another.

Ask for this data

Turn this gap into a public-data request

OC Transpo does not publish live O-Train positions in the public feed Otranspo can use. You can ask the City to publish them in a stable, reusable format.

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How GLOUCESTER-SOUTHGATE is doing

These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.

Measured over 317 route-hours. 3 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.

Scheduling

Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.

Who can fix it: A service planner
What it costs: Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.

Predictions close to the timetable

89%

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.

Route-hours with repeated late predictions

29of 317

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.

Route-hours with early predictions

6of 317

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.

Typical predicted delay

3.9min

The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.

Operations

Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.

Who can fix it: Operations, and often the road itself
What it costs: Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.

Prediction gap below twenty minutes

98.4%

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.

Route-hours with wide prediction gaps

5of 317

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.

Typical prediction gap

25.1min

The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.

Service, per the imported timetable

Scheduled transit, provider prediction agreement with the timetable, and public services in this ward.

29
Routes: 361
Stops: 5
Washrooms: 3
Water locations

Provider-prediction measure83.0%provider prediction within five minutes of the timetable

Provider prediction agreement

83.0% of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable. 304,687 of 366,976 settled trip-stop predictions at stops inside this ward matched that range across 20 weekdays with feed evidence, from Oct 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. These are provider predictions, not independently observed arrivals.

2 partial-capture days not counted.

Predictions within five minutes: 304,687
Eligible trip-stop predictions: 366,976
Observed days: 20 weekdays

How this compares

Ranked 4 of 22 measured wards. 4.6 points above the city median of 78.4%.

Highest: ward 22 at 85.1%. Lowest: ward 21 at 60.3%.

Only wards whose evidence meets the publication threshold are ranked. Same window and same method for each.

Which routes need closer review

18 of the 28 routes serving this ward have enough provider-prediction evidence to compare. Lowest timetable agreement first.

198Open route
65.0%Predictions within five minutes
6,081 eligible predictions across the whole route
6Open route
69.4%Predictions within five minutes
191,599 eligible predictions across the whole route
110Open route
71.6%Predictions within five minutes
113,377 eligible predictions across the whole route
92Open route
76.6%Predictions within five minutes
28,608 eligible predictions across the whole route
48Open route
78.1%Predictions within five minutes
114,929 eligible predictions across the whole route
41Open route
78.8%Predictions within five minutes
113,591 eligible predictions across the whole route
44Open route
80.3%Predictions within five minutes
120,830 eligible predictions across the whole route
117Open route
81.5%Predictions within five minutes
6,536 eligible predictions across the whole route
43Open route
83.2%Predictions within five minutes
20,157 eligible predictions across the whole route
90Open route
83.6%Predictions within five minutes
141,750 eligible predictions across the whole route

10 more routes here are not ranked: school, express, shopper or event service, whose schedule result does not compare the same way.

Vehicle visibility to investigate

The current summary uses seven days. For every route, you can also open yesterday, the last 7 days, or the last 30 days and inspect the day, scheduled trip, excluded feed gaps, and every observed public vehicle ID. An absence does not prove a vehicle fault or operator decision.

Vehicle visibility to investigate
Route	Scheduled trips	With a position	Without a matched position	Coverage	History
117	45	43	2	95.6%	Day 7 30
697	25	24	1	96.0%	Day 7 30
105	682	662	20	97.1%	Day 7 30
6	1,007	992	15	98.5%	Day 7 30
44	802	791	11	98.6%	Day 7 30
110	346	341	5	98.6%	Day 7 30
41	770	761	9	98.8%	Day 7 30
48	616	611	5	99.2%	Day 7 30
90	767	762	5	99.3%	Day 7 30
197	134	133	1	99.3%	Day 7 30
40	804	800	4	99.5%	Day 7 30
43	185	184	1	99.5%	Day 7 30
98	889	886	3	99.7%	Day 7 30
116	287	286	1	99.7%	Day 7 30
93	490	490	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
92	200	200	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
47	84	84	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
94	60	60	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
198	55	55	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
698	50	50	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
294	45	45	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
222	30	30	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
644	20	20	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
689	20	20	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
640	15	15	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
649	15	15	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
617	10	10	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
304	2	2	0	100.0%	Day 7 30

Routes serving the ward

29 scheduled routes

Bus routes · 28

Train lines · 1

4Train

Map & current service

Current service inside this boundary

Scheduled lines, stops, and observed buses share one map. Select a route or vehicle for details.

Evidence & sources

Imported municipal polygon · 43 boundary vertices · City of Ottawa ward boundaries · imported Aug 4, 2026

Route

━ 28 bus routes═ 1 train lines● 361 stops

Loading live feed

Public amenity record for this ward

Public washrooms and drinking water

Choose a category to check which location details are available.

Public washrooms (City data) 5

The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.

Drinking water (City data) 3

The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.

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Evidence included with the draft

Canonical Otranspo evidence link: https://otranspo.ca/en/city/wards/10
Sources and time: Sources and time: open the linked report for its source records and published or imported timestamps.
Limitations: Limitations: Otranspo is independent and may show unknown, suppressed, delayed, or corrected values. Confirm urgent or current service matters with the official agency.

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Rider evidence

Community reports

Signals below are moderated community aggregates, not official operator notices or reliability scores.

You can report without signing in. Anonymous reports count a little less when we calculate public patterns. You can add an account after submitting.

Report a specific problem

Emergency: call 9-1-1. Check official OC Transpo or STO notices before travelling.

Civic evidence brief

The identity, boundary, contacts, service scope and evidence dates behind this ward report, kept together so the page can be cited without losing its qualifications.

Municipality: City of Ottawa, Ontario
Geographic unit: Official City of Ottawa municipal ward 10: GLOUCESTER-SOUTHGATE
Boundary and vintage: City ward layer · effective not published · imported August 4, 2026
Official civic contacts: Jessica Bradley · Councillor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
Mark Sutcliffe · Mayor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
Relevant scheduled service: 29 public route records with a stop inside this boundary · operators: OC Transpo
Transit evidence vintage: Timetable import: not published · reliability window: Oct 3, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

A ward boundary, route inventory, destination list, population count or employment count supplies civic context. None of those values alone measures passenger demand, household trip effects, transfers or daily attendance.

Ottawa wards are municipal wards. They are not Gatineau electoral districts, and results from the two boundary systems are not interchangeable.

Evidence behind this pageOpen the definition, method, sources, dates, coverage, and known limits.

What is being shown

A ward-level inventory of scheduled transit, public washrooms, drinking-water locations, and eligible final OC Transpo provider predictions at stops inside the ward.

How it was produced

Current imported records are assigned by point-in-polygon to the sourced ward boundary. Reliability uses one eligible final provider prediction per trip, stop, and service date in the latest 28 completed service days. Within five minutes is measured against the timetable, not a physical arrival. Publication requires 20 weekdays with prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions.

Imported: August 4, 2026 at 10:43 a.m.
Computed or assembled: November 4, 2026 at 2:17 p.m.
Sample: 366,976 eligible settled provider predictions across 20 weekdays with prediction evidence support the reliability result.
Method or data version: ward-counts-v1 + ward-stop-settled-arrivals-purpose-aware-v3
Source checksum: ward-reliability:2e151035827a6b5b6ec313a67a25e5e4f0b9282aeadcbf5045a5d5a940fb7b84

Sources

Limits to keep in mind

Counts describe the published inventory inside the boundary, not service quality or access from every address.
Reliability covers final OC Transpo provider predictions at geographically assigned stops; physical arrivals are not independently measured. Rail and trips without eligible prediction evidence are not represented.
An unavailable count remains unavailable. It is not changed to zero.

Suggest a factual correction

How we measure this

For each trip, stop and service date at stops inside the ward, we keep the last eligible OC Transpo prediction and compare it with the timetable. It counts as within five minutes when the two are no more than five minutes apart. This is not a physical arrival.

The window is the latest 28 completed service days. A result is published only with 20 weekdays of prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions. Route results cover each whole route, not only the part inside the ward.

Read the full method

Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – City of Ottawa.