No 56 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in 11月Cancellations →

Previous measure: 51.7% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (9,715 arrivals over 18 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO 路線 56: Gal.Aylmer/Des Trembles/Cégep

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月31日 – 2026年11月6日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Trips with any notice: 1.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 61 trips with a usable feed window (1.6%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

60 with position · 1 to investigate · 19 excluded · 80 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月7日下午9:12.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

19 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 60 / 80 (75%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月7日下午8:18

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

51.7%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 9,715
Weekdays with evidence: 18
Evidence window: 2026年10月9日 – 2026年11月6日

The hours we have evidence for

6時65% · 451 predictions · 7 days
7時45% · 839 predictions · 7 days
8時32% · 339 predictions · 8 days
9時38% · 312 predictions · 8 days
10時16% · 267 predictions · 7 days
11時28% · 340 predictions · 9 days
12時53% · 560 predictions · 7 days
13時79% · 204 predictions · 7 days
14時84% · 313 predictions · 8 days
15時87% · 325 predictions · 8 days
16時67% · 277 predictions · 8 days
17時56% · 301 predictions · 9 days
18時86% · 355 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月8日

5 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

13 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

巴士扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月10日 to 2026年11月6日: 23 days counted.

1 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月12日.

數值與說明

13% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 174 of 1,318 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

4% of pairs (49) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

巴士扎堆到站
時段	已檢查的配對	擠成一團	間隔過長
早上繁忙時段(上午 6 時至 9 時)	1,318	13% (174)	4% (49)

此數據如何計算 →How we got this number每條路線的車輛擠在一起和慢速路段 →

這條路線最慢的路段

Slowest: CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY to de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS, 4.6 km/h actual against 20.3 km/h planned.

這條路線最慢的路段
起點	目的地	距離	計劃速度	實際速度	已量測的行程	緩慢班次
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY	de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS	340 m	20.3 km/h	4.6 km/h	64	83%
PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	de LUCERNE/FRASER	3.8 km	20.6 km/h	10.7 km/h	86	63%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	3.8 km	24.7 km/h	13.7 km/h	107	67%
chemin d'AYLMER/ROYALE	SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES	450 m	17 km/h	15.6 km/h	113	22%
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/PRINCIPALE	de LUCERNE/FRASER	2.5 km	26.4 km/h	17.4 km/h	71	39%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	WILFRID-LAVIGNE/LEGUERRIER	2.6 km	20.8 km/h	18.2 km/h	88	19%
SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES	SAINT-RAYMOND/LOUISE-CAMPAGNA	3.1 km	19.2 km/h	21.2 km/h	110	3%
LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND	SAINT-RAYMOND/MARCEL-CHAPUT	3 km	19.7 km/h	21.8 km/h	84	0%

慢速行程是指所需時間至少為計畫時間的 1.5 倍。

此數據如何計算 →

此路線的取消班次

這些詞的意思 →

4 partial-capture days not counted.

2 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from 10月10日週六 to 11月6日週五.

Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

取消班次最多的時段: 上午6時 (1), 下午4時 (1)

此路線通常何時較擁擠

根據 STO 巴士回報的載客量，涵蓋過去八週。如果有讀數的班次中，至少有一半達到站立或更擠，該時段就會標示為通常擁擠。

過去八週內，沒有任何時段通常很擁擠。

此路線通常何時較擁擠	平日	星期六	逢星期日
上午6點前	讀數不足	讀數不足	讀數不足
上午 6 時至 9 時	通常有座位6.4% of 171 trips	讀數不足	讀數不足
上午 9 時至下午 3 時	通常有座位0.9% of 214 trips	讀數不足	讀數不足
下午 3 時至 6 時	通常有座位29.7% of 111 trips	讀數不足	讀數不足
晚上 6 時至 10 時	通常有座位6.6% of 61 trips	讀數不足	讀數不足
晚上 10 點後	讀數不足	讀數不足	讀數不足

Based on 56 computed days.

來源：STO 公開即時車輛資料中的載客狀態。STO 根據每輛巴士的載重感應器設定此狀態（有座位：滿載率低於 60%，有站位：低於 90%，已滿：高於 90%）。
每個班次在每個時段只計算一次，以其回報的最高載客量為準。
我們不採用空車的回報，因為舊紀錄無法分辨是空車，還是車上沒有感應器。
某個時段至少要有 12 個行程，且分布在至少 4 個不同的日子，才會顯示資料。公眾假期按當天是星期幾來計算。

開啟附日期的預測分析

結論

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 4.1 to 6.8 min later than the timetable in 8 hours of the day.

Wide prediction spread 10:00, 12:00, 16:00 to 18:00: the 95th percentile is 24.7 min later than the median.

10:00 has 16% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 56% the rest of the day.

Scenario: 4 to 7 min more running time on 44 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 13 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 65% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 451 predictions, typically 3 min late
07:00: 44.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 839 predictions, typically 6.8 min late
08:00: 31.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 339 predictions, typically 16.6 min late
09:00: 37.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 312 predictions, typically 6.1 min late
10:00: 16.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 267 predictions, typically 12.2 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
11:00: 27.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 340 predictions, typically 7.8 min late
12:00: 53.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 560 predictions, typically 4.6 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
13:00: 79.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 204 predictions, typically 0.1 min early
14:00: 84.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 313 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
15:00: 86.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 325 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
16:00: 66.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 277 predictions, typically 2.9 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
17:00: 55.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 301 predictions, typically 4.1 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
18:00: 85.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 355 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data
prediction spread of 20 min or more between the 95th percentile and median

Findings
What	時間	已測量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	06:00 to 13:00 · 17:00	6.8 min late · 4.1 min late	More running time
ProblemWide prediction spread	10:00 · 12:00 · 16:00 to 18:00	24.7 min swing … 24 min swing	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	10:00	16%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 06:00 to 13:00: Measured arrivals 3,108; Hours affected 7; Spread 10.2 min; Median delay 6.8 min; Suggested running time change 6.8 min
Wide prediction spread · 10:00: Measured arrivals 267; Hours affected 1; Spread 24.7 min; Median delay 12.2 min; Suggested running time change 12.2 min
Wide prediction spread · 12:00: Measured arrivals 560; Hours affected 1; Spread 20.3 min; Median delay 4.6 min; Suggested running time change 4.6 min
Wide prediction spread · 16:00 to 18:00: Measured arrivals 578; Hours affected 2; Spread 24 min; Median delay 3.5 min; Suggested running time change 3.5 min
Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 301; Hours affected 1; Spread 26 min; Median delay 4.1 min; Suggested running time change 4.1 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 10:00: 小時 10:00; 準點 16.1%; Measured arrivals 267; Shortfall 39.7 pts; Route median on time 55.8%

開啟歷史紀錄、可靠度與路線分析

路線檢查

How route 56 has been running

這是我們所知內容的簡短摘要。如果無法回答某個問題，我們會說明。

重點結論

在此有日期的樣本中，營運單位的預測常與時刻表相差很大。

52 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 9,715 predictions checked

預測樣本數: 樣本較大

Based on 9,715 eligible provider predictions over 18 measured days, from 2026年10月9日 to 2026年11月6日.

Updated 2026年11月7日下午8:32

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

這些是預測與班表之間反覆出現的差異，並非獨立測得的服務失誤。它們使用與上方結果相同的合格預測，但按站點而非時段分組，因此兩份清單不一定逐行相符。

10時–11時: 84 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (267 predictions over 7 days).
11時–12時: 72 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (340 predictions over 9 days).
8時–9時: 68 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (339 predictions over 8 days).
9時–10時: 62 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (312 predictions over 8 days).

目前沒有與此路線相符的官方通知。

各站的預測差異

VANIER/de LUCERNE
90 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (124 predictions over 18 days).
開啟此站牌
VANIER/CRESCENT
89 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (125 predictions over 18 days).
開啟此站牌
VANIER/des VÉTÉRANS
87 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (127 predictions over 18 days).
開啟此站牌
VANIER/LYNN
87 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (127 predictions over 18 days).
開啟此站牌

這些是各路線業者提供的預測,並與時刻表比較。它們顯示某個地點和時段反覆出現的預測差異,不是實測的到站時間,也不能說明原因。

查看每個班次和日期

打開一個時段,即可查看每個服務日、預定班次、資料空檔、已觀察到的公開車輛編號,以及此摘要背後的確切數字。

乘客想知道的事

現在有任何班次被取消嗎?: 沒有即時取消班次的答案STO’s live trip-update feed did not answer this check. That is a feed gap. It does not mean zero cancellations, and it is not proof of a cancellation. Open the evidence to see the schedule, retained explicit cancellation notices, and every labelled data gap.
檢查資料缺口後，可能的未到班次？: 1 of 61 checked trips need a closer look1 of 61 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 19 of 80 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
服務提供者的預測與時刻表有何不同?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 21.9 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)52 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
營運商的預測意味著要等多久？: 目前沒有任何路線層級的結果達到證據門檻。這不代表沒有出現服務空檔。

時刻表變更檢查

已發布的時刻表：變更前與變更後

此頁面比較目前保留的官方時刻表與先前保留的版本。時刻表變更只說明原本的計劃,不能證明某個班次已經行駛。

Current published schedule began 2026年11月4日

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

我們會檢查新時刻表開始後的第一個星期一，以及一週前的星期一。所有數字都來自下列保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所選日期中，至少有一個日期有新增或取消的特定日期服務。請將此視為假日或特別服務的情況，而不是平日一般的服務增加。

變更前

已核對的服務日期: 2026年11月2日

時刻表班次: 0
不同的預定停靠站數量: 0
已公布的不同路線: 0
已公布的服務時段: —–—

資料串流指紋: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e

新時刻表

已核對的服務日期: 2026年11月9日

時刻表班次: 16
不同的預定停靠站數量: 96
已公布的不同路線: 2
已公布的服務時段: 06:24–18:54

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

資料串流指紋: a883188eff74cbe7 · c3e59947-1046-48b6-b759-bfbf7460da81

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

我們會比較變更前後各 14 天已確認的到站紀錄。只有在變更前後兩段時間都至少有 7 個服務日和 200 次到站紀錄時，我們才會公布比較結果。

Still collecting: before has 5,036 arrivals over 10 days; after has 1,306 arrivals over 3 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

校驗碼可讓任何人核對，是哪一份留存的時刻表產生這些數量。數量有變動，並不能說明原因、取消、營運單位的決定或對乘客的影響。

如何評估這條路線: 每站停靠的一般路線

我們把每個預定到達班次的最後一筆合資格業者預測，與官方時刻表比較。這些不是獨立量測的到達時間。結果至少需要 200 筆合資格預測。這裡採用乘客角度的目標：誤差在 5 分鐘內。

這些數據無法證明的事

公開資料來源沒有提供可靠的乘客人數，也沒有提供漏載乘客的事件。缺少車輛位置，本身並不能證明班次取消、未出車、中途折返或其原因。

查看定義、門檻和數據順序

官方即時資料：明確的取消班次、跳過的站點及目前有效的通知。
配對觀測資料:與官方時刻表相連的車輛位置和已確定的預測。
官方時刻表:原本的計畫,與實際觀察到的情況分開顯示。
乘客和營運單位的回報:這些是關於路線、時間和地點的線索,值得調查,但本身不是數字證明。

暫定結果，已公布的數據

預測與時刻表相比如何?

每個小時都會把某班預定到站的最後一次合格業者預測與時刻表比較。「5 分鐘內」是指預測與時刻表的差距，不是實際量到的到站時間，也不能證明巴士有行駛。

佐證期間: 2026年10月9日 to 2026年11月6日

與時刻表相差 5 分鐘內: 51.7%
已查核的合格預測: 9,715
有資料的平日: 18
第95百分位預測延誤: 21.9 min late

Patterns by hour (13)

Patterns by hour (13)
小時	準點	中位數	第 95 百分位	證據
06:00	65.0%	3 min late	12.4 min late	451 · 7 days
07:00	44.8%	6.8 min late	22 min late	839 · 7 days
08:00	31.9%	16.6 min late	23.8 min late	339 · 8 days
09:00	37.8%	6.1 min late	14.3 min late	312 · 8 days
10:00	16.1%	12.2 min late	36.9 min late	267 · 7 days
11:00	27.9%	7.8 min late	18 min late	340 · 9 days
12:00	53.4%	4.6 min late	24.9 min late	560 · 7 days
13:00	79.4%	0.1 min early	11.7 min late	204 · 7 days
14:00	84.3%	1.3 min late	16.4 min late	313 · 8 days
15:00	86.5%	0.6 min late	17.5 min late	325 · 8 days
16:00	66.8%	2.9 min late	24.9 min late	277 · 8 days
17:00	55.8%	4.1 min late	30 min late	301 · 9 days
18:00	85.9%	1.1 min late	13.5 min late	355 · 8 days

9 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

有排定班次的巴士，但沒有即時觀察記錄

60 / 80 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (75.0%).

06:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
07:004 / 10 trips without a position60.0%
10:002 / 5 trips without a position60.0%
12:003 / 10 trips without a position70.0%
08:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
13:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%

這不是已確認的未發車。 找不到車輛位置，可能是班次取消或漏班，也可能是班次編號未指派，或是營運單位的資料來源出現缺口。Otranspo 公布這項缺口，因為這對乘客很重要，同時也會如實處理，不作過度推論。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 來源與限制.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 6, 2026 November 5, 2026 November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026

November 6, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 14 with a matched position · 1 with no matching position (to investigate) · 1 with an unknown outcome.

06:24– 07:07
Trip sto:63296203Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:26 a.m. EST / 7:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:47– 07:39
Trip sto:63295587Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:50 a.m. EST / 7:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:53– 07:45
Trip sto:63296395Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:56 a.m. EST / 7:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:26– 08:10
Trip sto:63296204Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:21 a.m. EST / 7:41 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:56– 08:40
Trip sto:63295295Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:37 a.m. EST / 8:38 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:56– 09:40
Trip sto:63290358Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
10:05– 10:45
Trip sto:63295375Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:37 a.m. EST / 10:37 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:03– 11:45
Trip sto:63295750Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:19 a.m. EST / 11:53 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:03– 12:45
Trip sto:63295472Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:03 p.m. EST / 12:45 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:10– 12:51
Trip sto:63294905Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:11 p.m. EST / 12:51 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
13:10– 13:52
Trip sto:63290360No matching position; investigate, not a confirmed cancellation
14:10– 14:53
Trip sto:63290332Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 1:54 p.m. EST / 2:53 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

STO 路線 56: Gal.Aylmer/Des Trembles/Cégep

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

巴士扎堆到站

這條路線最慢的路段

此路線的取消班次

最新取消的班次

此路線通常何時較擁擠

What this route needs

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

查看每個班次和日期

乘客想知道的事

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

變更前

新時刻表

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

預測與時刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

巴士扎堆到站

這條路線最慢的路段

此路線的取消班次

最新取消的班次

此路線通常何時較擁擠

What this route needs

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

查看每個班次和日期

乘客想知道的事

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

變更前

新時刻表

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

預測與時刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day