No 50 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in 十一月Cancellations →

Previous measure: 79.7% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (4,487 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO 线路 50: Cégep G-Roy/Des Cèdres

开往 Cégep GRoy0 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月29日 – 2026年11月4日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 35 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

35 with position · 0 to investigate · 10 excluded · 45 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月5日 18:17.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

10 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 35 / 45 (77.8%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月5日 17:07

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

79.7%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 4,487
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: 2026年10月7日 – 2026年11月4日

The hours we have evidence for

6时86% · 305 predictions · 8 days
7时74% · 689 predictions · 7 days
8时39% · 265 predictions · 8 days
9时93% · 356 predictions · 9 days
16时83% · 271 predictions · 8 days
17时93% · 284 predictions · 9 days
18时98% · 305 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月5日

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

7 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

公交车扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月8日 to 2026年11月4日: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月12日.

数值与解读

5% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 60 of 1,304 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

1% of pairs (13) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

公交车扎堆到站
时段	已检查的配对	扎堆	间隔过长
早高峰(上午 6 点至 9 点)	1,304	5% (60)	1% (13)

测量方式 →How we got this number每条线路的扎堆和缓慢路段 →

这条路线最慢的路段

Slowest: CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY to de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS, 2.4 km/h actual against 10.2 km/h planned.

这条路线最慢的路段
起点	到	距离	计划速度	实际速度	已测量的行程	缓慢行程
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY	de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS	340 m	10.2 km/h	2.4 km/h	33	85%
PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES	FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	810 m	16.2 km/h	5.5 km/h	44	68%
FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES arrêt d'arrivée	830 m	14.5 km/h	15.4 km/h	23	0%
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	3.8 km	18.3 km/h	16.7 km/h	32	3%
PINK/de la SAPINIÈRE	de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/BÉDARD	2 km	18.9 km/h	18 km/h	61	8%
FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	des ALLUMETTIÈRES/WILFRID-LAVIGNE	3.9 km	20 km/h	18.5 km/h	44	0%
de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/BÉDARD	CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY/arrivée	1.6 km	20.7 km/h	20.6 km/h	59	10%
PINK/du BLIZZARD	VANIER/du PLATEAU	4.5 km	21.7 km/h	21.3 km/h	34	0%

慢行程是指用时至少为计划时间的 1.5 倍。

测量方式 →

此线路的取消班次

这些词是什么意思 →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

过去四周内，这条线路没有计入的取消班次。我们无法核实的通知会列在下方。

未到（没有看到公交车，也没有通知），最近7天：在我们能核查的班次中没有。

这条线路通常何时繁忙

依据 STO 公交车报告的载客水平，统计最近八周的数据。如果有读数的班次中至少一半达到站位或更拥挤，该时段就标为通常拥挤。

这条线路通常何时繁忙	工作日	星期六	每周日
早上6点前	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足
上午 6 点至 9 点	通常有座位42.2% of 147 trips	读数不足	读数不足
上午9点至下午3点	通常很拥挤51.6% of 31 trips	读数不足	读数不足
下午3点至6点	通常有座位37.7% of 69 trips	读数不足	读数不足
晚上 6 点至 10 点	通常有座位48.6% of 35 trips	读数不足	读数不足
晚上10点以后	读数不足	读数不足	读数不足

Based on 56 computed days.

来源：STO 公开实时车辆数据中的载客状态。STO 根据每辆公交车的载重传感器设定该状态（有座位：满载率低于 60%，有站位：低于 90%，已满：高于 90%）。
每个行程在每个时段只计一次,按其报告的最高载客量计算。
空车报告不计入，因为旧记录无法区分空车和没有传感器的车。
某个时段至少要有 12 趟行程，且分布在至少 4 个不同的日子，才会显示任何内容。节假日按其所属的星期几计算。

打开带日期的预测分析

结论

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 7.6 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

08:00 has 39% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 86% the rest of the day.

Scenario: 8 min more running time on 4 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 7 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 86.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 305 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
07:00: 74% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 689 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
08:00: 38.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 265 predictions, typically 7.6 min late
09:00: 93.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 356 predictions, typically 1 min late
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: not enough data
16:00: 83% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 271 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
17:00: 93% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 284 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
18:00: 98.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 305 predictions, typically 0.2 min early
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	时间	已测量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	08:00	7.6 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	08:00	39%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 08:00: Measured arrivals 265; Hours affected 1; Spread 16.6 min; Median delay 7.6 min; Suggested running time change 7.6 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 08:00: 小时 08:00; 准点 38.9%; Measured arrivals 265; Shortfall 47.3 pts; Route median on time 86.2%

打开历史、可靠性和线路分析

线路检查

How route 50 has been running

这是我们所知情况的简短摘要。如果我们无法回答某个问题，会明确说明。

结论

服务方的预测常与时刻表不同；实际到达时间没有经过独立测量。

80 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 4,487 predictions checked

预测样本量: 样本较大

Based on 4,487 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月4日.

Updated 2026年11月5日 17:32

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

这些是预测时间与时刻表之间反复出现的差异，不是独立测得的服务故障。它们使用与上述结果相同的合格预测，但按站点而不是按时段分组，所以两个列表不一定逐行一致。

8时–9时: 61 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (265 predictions over 8 days).

目前没有与这条线路相符的官方通知。

各站预测差异

PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES
43 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (61 predictions over 16 days).
打开此站点
des ALLUMETTIÈRES/SAMUEL-EDEY
40 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (67 predictions over 16 days).
打开此站点
des ALLUMETTIÈRES/WILFRID-LAVIGNE
39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (67 predictions over 16 days).
打开此站点
VANIER/du PLATEAU
34 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (77 predictions over 17 days).
打开此站点

这些是按路线给出的服务方预测，并与时刻表作了对比。它们显示的是某地某时重复出现的预测差异，不是实测到达时间，也不能说明原因。

查看每个行程和日期

展开一个时间段,可查看每个服务日、预定班次、数据缺口、观测到的公开车辆编号,以及本摘要背后的确切数字。

乘客想知道什么

现在有班次被取消吗？: 未来 4 小时内没有班次发车检查未来4小时内从线路起终点开始的行程。这不是历史取消率。
排除数据缺口后，可能的未出车情况？: 0 of 35 checked trips need a closer look0 of 35 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 10 of 45 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
运营方的预测与时刻表有何不同?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 10.0 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)80 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
运营方的预测意味着需要等多久？: 目前还没有路线级别的结果达到数据依据的门槛。这并不表示没有出现过服务间隔。

时刻表变更检查

已发布时刻表：变更前后

这是将当前保留的官方时刻表与上一个保留版本进行比较。时刻表变更说明的是原定计划，并不能证明某个班次确实运行过。

Current published schedule began 2026年11月3日

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

我们会查看新时刻表开始后的第一个星期一，以及提前一周的星期一。所有数字都来自下方列出的、已保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所选日期中，至少有一个日期采用了新增或取消的按日历日期安排的服务。请将其视为节假日或特别服务的情况，而不是普通工作日的增长。

之前

已核对的服务日期: 2026年11月2日

时刻表班次: 9
不同的预定站点: 88
已发布的不同路径: 3
已公布的服务时段: 6:27–18:51

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

数据源指纹: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

新时刻表

已核对的服务日期: 2026年11月9日

时刻表班次: 9
不同的预定站点: 88
已发布的不同路径: 3
已公布的服务时段: 6:27–18:51

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

数据源指纹: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e

变更后服务有改善吗？

我们会比较变更前后各14天内已确认的到站情况。只有变更前后两边都至少有7个服务日和200次到站记录时，我们才会发布比较结果。

Still collecting: before has 2,357 arrivals over 10 days; after has 404 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

校验和可让任何人核实是哪份留存的时刻表得出这些数量。数量变化并不能说明原因、取消、运营方的决定或对乘客的影响。

如何评价这条线路: 普通站站停靠线路

我们将每个预定到达班次的最后一个合格服务方预测与官方时刻表进行比较。这些不是独立测量的到达时间。一项结果至少需要 200 条合格预测。这里采用面向乘客的目标：误差在 5 分钟内。

这些数据无法证明的事

公开数据源不提供可靠的乘客人数，也不提供乘客被错过的事件。缺少车辆位置本身，并不能证明班次已取消、未出车、提前折返，也不能说明原因。

查看定义、阈值和数据依据的顺序

官方实时数据：明确的取消、跳过的站点和当前有效的通知。
匹配的观测数据:与官方时刻表相关联的车辆位置和已确定的预测。
官方时刻表：计划的内容，与实际观测到的内容分开显示。
乘客和运营方的报告：这些是关于线路、时间和地点的线索，供进一步调查，本身不能作为数字证明。

初步结果,已公布的数据

预测与时刻表相比如何?

每个小时，我们都会把某个预定到站班次最后一次符合条件的运营方预测与时刻表进行比较。“5 分钟内”指的是这个预测差异，不是实际测得的到站时间，也不能证明公交车已经运行。

佐证时间段: 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月4日

与时刻表相差不超过5分钟: 79.7%
已核查的合格预测: 4,487
有数据的工作日: 17
第95百分位预测延误: 10 min late

Patterns by hour (7)

Patterns by hour (7)
小时	准点	中位数	第95百分位	数据证据
06:00	86.2%	2.7 min late	5.6 min late	305 · 8 days
07:00	74.0%	1.8 min late	10.5 min late	689 · 7 days
08:00	38.9%	7.6 min late	24.1 min late	265 · 8 days
09:00	93.3%	1 min late	5.5 min late	356 · 9 days
16:00	83.0%	1.2 min late	11.7 min late	271 · 8 days
17:00	93.0%	0.6 min late	3.6 min late	284 · 9 days
18:00	98.4%	0.2 min early	2.4 min late	305 · 8 days

1 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

有时刻表的巴士，但没有实时观测记录

35 / 45 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (77.8%).

07:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
06:003 / 10 trips without a position70.0%
18:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
08:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
16:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
17:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%

这不是已确认的未发车。 缺少位置可能表示公交车被取消或漏班，也可能表示行程编号未分配，或运营方数据源有缺口。Otranspo 公布这一缺口，因为它对乘客很重要，同时我们会如实说明，不下定论。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 来源和局限.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 9 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 9 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

06:27– 07:10
Trip sto:63296202Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:28 a.m. EST / 7:11 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:47– 07:37
Trip sto:63295386Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:46 a.m. EST / 7:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:15– 07:45
Trip sto:63295737Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:15 a.m. EST / 7:40 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:18– 08:10
Trip sto:63296205Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:04 a.m. EST / 8:05 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:48– 08:40
Trip sto:63294908Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:52 a.m. EST / 8:42 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:57– 09:45
Trip sto:63296277Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:59 a.m. EST / 9:40 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:05– 16:56
Trip sto:63294874Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:17 p.m. EST / 4:51 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
17:05– 17:58
Trip sto:63295425Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:58 p.m. EST / 5:57 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
18:05– 18:51
Trip sto:63294941Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:01 p.m. EST / 6:42 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.