No 86 trips cancelled now · 9 did not run in 十一月Cancellations →

Previous measure: 82% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (78,854 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

线路 86: Tunney's Pasture ⇄ A - Antares & C - Colonnade

每 15 至 30 分钟一班

开往 Tunney's Pasture1 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月28日 – 2026年11月3日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 8 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 11.

Trips needing investigation

12 of 619 trips with a usable feed window (1.9%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

607 with position · 12 to investigate · 0 excluded · 619 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月4日 13:59.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 12 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 607 / 619 (98.1%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月4日 12:39

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

82%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 78,854
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: 2026年10月6日 – 2026年11月3日

The hours we have evidence for

0时85% · 506 predictions · 14 days
5时97% · 850 predictions · 10 days
6时87% · 2,670 predictions · 14 days
7时89% · 2,858 predictions · 14 days
8时67% · 3,090 predictions · 14 days
9时92% · 2,591 predictions · 14 days
10时91% · 1,896 predictions · 14 days
11时90% · 1,862 predictions · 14 days
12时89% · 1,878 predictions · 14 days
13时85% · 1,921 predictions · 14 days
14时89% · 2,012 predictions · 14 days
15时73% · 2,715 predictions · 14 days
16时70% · 3,084 predictions · 14 days
17时61% · 3,203 predictions · 14 days
18时80% · 2,416 predictions · 14 days
19时91% · 1,888 predictions · 14 days
20时81% · 1,898 predictions · 14 days
21时81% · 1,718 predictions · 14 days
22时86% · 1,564 predictions · 14 days
23时94% · 1,154 predictions · 14 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月4日

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

20 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

公交车扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月3日: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月15日.

数值与解读

2% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 1,490 of 61,175 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

2% of pairs (1,360) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

公交车扎堆到站
时段	已检查的配对	扎堆	间隔过长
清晨（凌晨4点至6点）	119	0% (0)	0% (0)
早高峰(上午 6 点至 9 点)	10,154	6% (574)	4% (392)
中午（上午9点至下午3点）	20,861	1% (105)	0% (41)
下午高峰(下午3点至6点)	13,374	6% (741)	6% (787)
晚间（晚上 6 点至 10 点）	13,699	1% (69)	1% (139)
夜间（晚上10点至凌晨4点）	2,968	0% (1)	0% (1)

测量方式 →How we got this number每条线路的扎堆和缓慢路段 →

这条路线最慢的路段

Slowest: TUNNEY'S PASTURE D to HOLLAND / CARLING, 15.4 km/h actual against 11.9 km/h planned.

这条路线最慢的路段
起点	到	距离	计划速度	实际速度	已测量的行程	缓慢行程
TUNNEY'S PASTURE D	HOLLAND / CARLING	1.8 km	11.9 km/h	15.4 km/h	1,082	3%
ANTARES / WEST HUNT CLUB	PRINCE OF WALES / STEPHANIE	2.7 km	17.2 km/h	16.8 km/h	896	8%
FISHER / BASELINE	HOLLAND / CARLING	2.3 km	23 km/h	18.5 km/h	69	12%
HOLLAND / CARLING	HOLLAND / SCOTT	1.6 km	13.5 km/h	21.5 km/h	1,088	0%
FISHER / BASELINE	HOLLAND / CARLING	2.1 km	22 km/h	22.5 km/h	1,028	4%
HOLLAND / CARLING	FISHER / BASELINE	2.1 km	21 km/h	24.5 km/h	1,102	3%
PRINCE OF WALES / STEPHANIE	FISHER / BASELINE	3.7 km	21.4 km/h	25.7 km/h	901	0%
FISHER / BASELINE	ANTARES / WEST HUNT CLUB	4.9 km	24.6 km/h	27.7 km/h	185	1%

慢行程是指用时至少为计划时间的 1.5 倍。

测量方式 →

此线路附近的市政道路施工

渥太华市已发布的道路施工和活动封路信息，按靠近本线路路径来衡量。靠近不代表巴士一定绕行。请查看运营方自己发布的服务提醒。

目前无法读取市政府的道路施工清单。

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

来源：渥太华市交通事件（道路施工和封闭）。包含根据渥太华市开放政府许可协议授权的信息。渥太华市表示，此列表仅尽力提供，可能不完整。渥太华市交通地图 ↗

此线路的取消班次

这些词是什么意思 →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

11 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from 10月7日周三 to 11月3日周二.

Not counted: 20 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

取消次数最多的时段: 16时 (3), 17时 (3), 18时 (2)

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.5 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

Predicted waits All measured hours are 2.3 min longer than scheduled waits.

17:00 has 61% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 87% the rest of the day.

Only 98% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 20 hours with samples

00:00: 85.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 506 predictions, typically 0.6 min early
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 97.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 850 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
06:00: 87.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,670 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
07:00: 88.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,858 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
08:00: 67.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,090 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
09:00: 91.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,591 predictions, typically 0.1 min late
10:00: 90.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,896 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
11:00: 89.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,862 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
12:00: 88.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,878 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
13:00: 85.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,921 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
14:00: 88.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,012 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
15:00: 72.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,715 predictions, typically 2 min late
16:00: 70% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,084 predictions, typically 2 min late
17:00: 61% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,203 predictions, typically 3 min late
18:00: 79.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,416 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
19:00: 90.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,888 predictions, typically 0 min late
20:00: 80.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,898 predictions, typically 0 min late
21:00: 80.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,718 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
22:00: 85.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,564 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
23:00: 93.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,154 predictions, typically 0.5 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	时间	已测量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	17:00	3 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	17:00	61%	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemPredicted spacing varies	All measured hours	2.3 min extra wait	Manage the headway
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	98%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 3,203; Hours affected 1; Spread 13.5 min; Median delay 3 min; Suggested running time change 3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 17:00: 小时 17:00; 准点 61%; Measured arrivals 3,203; Shortfall 25.6 pts; Route median on time 86.6%
Predicted spacing varies · All measured hours: 站点 7; Extra wait share 27.9%; 已匹配的到达 35; 额外等待 2.3 min; Scheduled wait 8.1 min
Coverage gap · All measured hours: 目标 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 98.1%; 运营日 6; Trips with a matching position 607; 时刻表班次 619

打开历史、可靠性和线路分析

线路检查

How route 86 has been running

这是我们所知情况的简短摘要。如果我们无法回答某个问题，会明确说明。

结论

供应商的预测通常与时刻表接近，但请查看下方的问题时段。

82 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 78,854 predictions checked

预测样本量: 样本较大

Based on 78,854 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日.

Updated 2026年11月4日 12:32

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

这些是预测时间与时刻表之间反复出现的差异，不是独立测得的服务故障。它们使用与上述结果相同的合格预测，但按站点而不是按时段分组，所以两个列表不一定逐行一致。

17时–18时: 39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (3,203 predictions over 14 days).
8时–9时: 33 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (3,090 predictions over 14 days).

目前没有与这条线路相符的官方通知。

各站预测差异

COLONNADE / AD. 203
42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (243 predictions over 21 days).
打开此站点
COLONNADE / AD. 217
42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (243 predictions over 21 days).
打开此站点
COLONNADE / COLONNADE
38 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (243 predictions over 21 days).
打开此站点
COLONNADE / 40 COLONNADE
37 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (242 predictions over 21 days).
打开此站点

这些是按路线给出的服务方预测，并与时刻表作了对比。它们显示的是某地某时重复出现的预测差异，不是实测到达时间，也不能说明原因。

查看每个行程和日期

展开一个时间段,可查看每个服务日、预定班次、数据缺口、观测到的公开车辆编号,以及本摘要背后的确切数字。

乘客想知道什么

现在有班次被取消吗？: 0 of 12检查未来4小时内从线路起终点开始的行程。这不是历史取消率。
排除数据缺口后，可能的未出车情况？: 12 of 619 checked trips need a closer look12 of 619 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 619 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
运营方的预测与时刻表有何不同?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 10.0 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)82 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
运营方的预测意味着需要等多久？: 10.3 min average predicted wait2.3 min beyond the scheduled wait, based on 35 eligible predictions at 7 high-frequency stops over 2 days.

时刻表变更检查

已发布时刻表：变更前后

这是将当前保留的官方时刻表与上一个保留版本进行比较。时刻表变更说明的是原定计划，并不能证明某个班次确实运行过。

Current published schedule began 2026年10月30日

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

我们会查看新时刻表开始后的第一个星期一，以及提前一周的星期一。所有数字都来自下方列出的、已保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所选日期中，至少有一个日期采用了新增或取消的按日历日期安排的服务。请将其视为节假日或特别服务的情况，而不是普通工作日的增长。

之前

已核对的服务日期: 2026年10月26日

时刻表班次: 99
不同的预定站点: 90
已发布的不同路径: 5
已公布的服务时段: 5:01–1:01 next day

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

数据源指纹: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

新时刻表

已核对的服务日期: 2026年11月2日

时刻表班次: 99
不同的预定站点: 90
已发布的不同路径: 5
已公布的服务时段: 5:01–1:01 next day

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

数据源指纹: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

变更后服务有改善吗？

我们会比较变更前后各14天内已确认的到站情况。只有变更前后两边都至少有7个服务日和200次到站记录时，我们才会发布比较结果。

Still collecting: before has 41,558 arrivals over 14 days; after has 14,335 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

校验和可让任何人核实是哪份留存的时刻表得出这些数量。数量变化并不能说明原因、取消、运营方的决定或对乘客的影响。

如何评价这条线路: 普通站站停靠线路

我们将每个预定到达班次的最后一个合格服务方预测与官方时刻表进行比较。这些不是独立测量的到达时间。一项结果至少需要 200 条合格预测。这里采用面向乘客的目标：误差在 5 分钟内。

这些数据无法证明的事

公开数据源不提供可靠的乘客人数，也不提供乘客被错过的事件。缺少车辆位置本身，并不能证明班次已取消、未出车、提前折返，也不能说明原因。

查看定义、阈值和数据依据的顺序

官方实时数据：明确的取消、跳过的站点和当前有效的通知。
匹配的观测数据:与官方时刻表相关联的车辆位置和已确定的预测。
官方时刻表：计划的内容，与实际观测到的内容分开显示。
乘客和运营方的报告：这些是关于线路、时间和地点的线索，供进一步调查，本身不能作为数字证明。

初步结果,已公布的数据

预测与时刻表相比如何?

每个小时，我们都会把某个预定到站班次最后一次符合条件的运营方预测与时刻表进行比较。“5 分钟内”指的是这个预测差异，不是实际测得的到站时间，也不能证明公交车已经运行。

佐证时间段: 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日

与时刻表相差不超过5分钟: 82.0%
已核查的合格预测: 78,854
有数据的工作日: 19
第95百分位预测延误: 10 min late

Patterns by hour (20)

Patterns by hour (20)
小时	准点	中位数	第95百分位	数据证据
00:00	85.2%	0.6 min early	5 min late	506 · 14 days
05:00	97.3%	0.6 min late	3.9 min late	850 · 10 days
06:00	87.4%	0.4 min late	7.4 min late	2,670 · 14 days
07:00	88.6%	0.8 min late	6.8 min late	2,858 · 14 days
08:00	67.4%	2.2 min late	13.4 min late	3,090 · 14 days
09:00	91.5%	0.1 min late	5 min late	2,591 · 14 days
10:00	90.6%	0.4 min late	5.6 min late	1,896 · 14 days
11:00	89.5%	0.5 min late	5.7 min late	1,862 · 14 days
12:00	88.7%	0.5 min late	6 min late	1,878 · 14 days
13:00	85.1%	0.8 min late	6.2 min late	1,921 · 14 days
14:00	88.7%	0.6 min late	7.4 min late	2,012 · 14 days
15:00	72.5%	2 min late	11.9 min late	2,715 · 14 days
16:00	70.0%	2 min late	16.5 min late	3,084 · 14 days
17:00	61.0%	3 min late	16.5 min late	3,203 · 14 days
18:00	79.7%	0.8 min late	11.5 min late	2,416 · 14 days
19:00	90.6%	0 min late	5.4 min late	1,888 · 14 days
20:00	80.6%	0 min late	7.1 min late	1,898 · 14 days
21:00	80.9%	1.1 min late	7.6 min late	1,718 · 14 days
22:00	85.8%	1.2 min late	7.8 min late	1,564 · 14 days
23:00	93.8%	0.5 min late	5.2 min late	1,154 · 14 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

有时刻表的巴士，但没有实时观测记录

607 / 619 scheduled trips published at least one position across 6 service days (98.1%).

20:002 / 28 trips without a position92.9%
17:003 / 48 trips without a position93.8%
06:002 / 38 trips without a position94.7%
21:001 / 26 trips without a position96.2%
18:001 / 28 trips without a position96.4%
19:001 / 28 trips without a position96.4%

这不是已确认的未发车。 缺少位置可能表示公交车被取消或漏班，也可能表示行程编号未分配，或运营方数据源有缺口。Otranspo 公布这一缺口，因为它对乘客很重要，同时我们会如实说明，不下定论。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 来源和局限.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 99 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 98 with a matched position · 1 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:01– 05:30
Trip 27993030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:50 a.m. EST / 5:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:24– 05:46
Trip 27235030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:23 a.m. EST / 5:44 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:51– 06:20
Trip 35711030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:45 a.m. EST / 6:26 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:53– 06:17
Trip 3749030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:56 a.m. EST / 6:11 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:06– 06:40
Trip 5301030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:56 a.m. EST / 6:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:08– 06:32
Trip 10477030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:37 a.m. EST / 6:28 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:23– 06:43
Trip 32854030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:58 a.m. EST / 6:46 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:31– 06:54
Trip 3227030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:31 a.m. EST / 6:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:35– 07:09
Trip 17488030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:29 a.m. EST / 7:03 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:38– 07:02
Trip 36025030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:40 a.m. EST / 7:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:54– 07:14
Trip 14491030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:56 a.m. EST / 7:22 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:01– 07:25
Trip 18236030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:03 a.m. EST / 7:30 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

线路 86: Tunney's Pasture ⇄ A - Antares & C - Colonnade

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

公交车扎堆到站

这条路线最慢的路段

此线路附近的市政道路施工

此线路的取消班次

最近取消的班次

What this route needs

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

查看每个行程和日期

乘客想知道什么

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

之前

新时刻表

变更后服务有改善吗？

预测与时刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

公交车扎堆到站

这条路线最慢的路段

此线路附近的市政道路施工

此线路的取消班次

最近取消的班次

What this route needs

预测在哪些地点和时间反复出现差异?

查看每个行程和日期

乘客想知道什么

每份已发布时刻表中所选的服务日

之前

新时刻表

变更后服务有改善吗？

预测与时刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day