Estimated: gaps and run times come from live predictions against the timetable, not from seeing each train.

O que isso mede

How the O-Train is running: how many trips were predicted or cancelled, how far apart trains are, and how long the run takes.

• MedidoWe saw it happen.
• EstimadoModelled, shown with a range.
• ExplainedHow it is worked out, in words.

De onde vem

• EstimadoLive O-Train predictions
• ExplainedHorários publicados, com data
• ExplainedAnnounced slow orders

Como calculamos

1. We count the trips the live feed predicts and the ones it marks cancelled.
2. We compare the gap between predicted trains with the gap the timetable promises.
3. We compare the predicted run time with the timetable’s run time.
4. Announced slow orders are listed as the operator published them. We do not infer them.

Worked example

Qual é o nosso grau de certeza

Counts of predicted and cancelled trips are what the feed says. Gaps and run times are estimates, because a prediction is not a sighting.

Limits, and what would change it

• A prediction can change before the train arrives.
• A train missing from the feed can make a gap look longer than it was.
• It says what is predicted now, not how the day will end.