78,4% of previsões de chegada de ônibus were within five minutes. Aos sábados were the weak spot.

Horários

Previsões atrasadas repetidas podem indicar um horário que vale a pena revisar. Verifique os registros reais de chegada e de despacho antes de decidir se o tempo de percurso precisa mudar.

Quem pode resolver

Um planejador de serviço

Quanto custa

Custo indisponível até que os efeitos sobre frota, mão de obra, recuperação e transferências sejam testados.

Operações

Uma grande variação nas previsões de chegada exige uma revisão operacional. Trânsito, despacho, embarque e elaboração do horário podem contribuir. Só com essas previsões, não é possível identificar a causa nem a solução.

Quem pode resolver

Operações e, muitas vezes, a própria via

Quanto custa

Custo indisponível até que a causa operacional e a solução sejam definidas.

Test more scheduled running time

Test additional scheduled running time for these hours. This pattern supports the scenario, but fleet, labour, recovery, transfer and cost effects require operator validation.

• 1210:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  57.797 eligible predictions · 13 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 712:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  54.088 eligible predictions · 12 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 611:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  52.897 eligible predictions · 12 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1807:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  35.142 eligible predictions · 17 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 15 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 2011:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  24.434 eligible predictions · 13 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1415:00 to 00:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  24.650 eligible predictions · 9 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1409:00 to 14:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  21.261 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1112:00 to 16:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  18.551 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1913:00 to 22:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  14.669 eligible predictions · 9 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 6307:00 to 14:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  16.007 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 7011:00 to 16:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 5 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  14.666 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 5 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 6315:00 to 22:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  15.629 eligible predictions · 7 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 11 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5710:00 to 18:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  16.804 eligible predictions · 8 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5112:00 to 18:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  13.246 eligible predictions · 6 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 10 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5719:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  7.708 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 14 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 2005:00 to 10:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  8.288 eligible predictions · 5 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1120:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  8.343 eligible predictions · 3 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 16 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1117:00 to 19:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  7.193 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5707:00 to 09:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  5.620 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 8 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 7021:00 to 23:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  4.401 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 17 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5107:00 to 09:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  4.225 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 700:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  2.398 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 18 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1909:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  2.048 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 9 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 5123:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 4 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  576 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 5 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 4 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

• 1800:00

  The median final prediction here is more than 3 minutes later than the timetable. Test whether scheduled running time explains this; actual arrivals and the cause are not established.

  516 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 6 min later than the median · Unvalidated scenario to verify: about 3 min more scheduled running time, derived from the prediction median

Something other than the timetable

The prediction spread does not support a running-time change by itself. Test traffic, boarding load, crossings, terminal dispatch, vehicle assignment and operator availability against operational records; those cause data are not available here.

• 2014:00 to 18:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 27 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  7.218 eligible predictions · 4 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 27 min later than the median

• 1416:00 to 18:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 22 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  6.902 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 6 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 22 min later than the median

• 615:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  5.016 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

• 7014:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 20 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  2.617 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 20 min later than the median

• 5718:00 to 20:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 25 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  3.813 eligible predictions · 2 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 25 min later than the median

• 1116:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  3.572 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

• 1817:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 22 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  1.828 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 3 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 22 min later than the median

• 7013:00

  At 13:00, 50 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 72 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

  2.526 eligible predictions · 50% against 72% the rest of the day

• 1821:00

  At 21:00, 32 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 56 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

  2.209 eligible predictions · 32% against 56% the rest of the day

• 1915:00

  At 15:00, 40 of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable, against 65 the rest of the day. This identifies a prediction pattern, not a confirmed service failure.

  1.734 eligible predictions · 40% against 65% the rest of the day

Something other than the timetable, at night

The late-hour pattern does not establish a cause. Test terminal holds, prior-trip lateness, vehicle assignment, operator availability and any overnight traffic event against operational records; those records are not available here.

• 622:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 21 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  2.865 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 4 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 21 min later than the median

• 2023:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  1.356 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 5 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

• 5122:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 24 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  1.601 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 1 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 24 min later than the median

• 2000:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 23 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  409 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · typically 1 min late · 95th-percentile prediction 23 min later than the median

• 601:00

  The 95th-percentile prediction here is about 45 minutes later than the median prediction. Actual arrival spread is not measured.

  724 eligible predictions · 1 hours of the day · 95th-percentile prediction 45 min later than the median