Ward 23 · Ottawa · Councillor: Allan Hubley
Kanata South
Kanata South: 83.5% of predictions within five minutes.
- Within five minutes
- 83.5%
- Stops in the ward
- 274
- Routes serving it
- 18
- Cancelled trips
- Not available yet
- Not counted per ward yet
Where it is slowest
- 80% and up 8
- 60 to 80% 2
- Under 60% 0
- Too little data 8
Routes serving the ward, by their share of predictions within five minutes. Each route result covers the whole route.
Routes in this ward
| Route | Within 5 min | Cancelled | Crowding |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 71.6% | Not published | Not published |
| 163 | 77.8% | Not published | Not published |
| 161 | 81.3% | Not published | Not published |
| 168 | 82.7% | Not published | Not published |
| 162 | 83.5% | Not published | Not published |
| 165 | 84.0% | Not published | Not published |
| 68 | 84.6% | Not published | Not published |
| 61 | 86.3% | Not published | Not published |
Cancellations and crowding are not published per route yet. 8 routes with too little data or a different service purpose are left out.
All routes and their sourcesOne-page brief
A printable summary of this ward for council and community meetings, with the same numbers, the method in plain words and dated sources.
What can be verified in Kanata South?
Arrival predictions, the imported timetable and train notices. Each is shown with its own source.
Provider prediction agreement
83.5%
of eligible predictions within five minutes of schedule
- How this compares
- Rank 3 of 22 · median 78.4%
Service, per the imported timetable
- Scheduled trips at ward stops
- Not available yet
- Routes
- 18
- Train lines
- 0
Current service inside this boundary
The live buses inside this boundary are on the Map tab.
Prediction measure, timetable inventory and methods
Service delivery · evidence state
Cancellations at stops in this ward
Not publishableNo zero or missed trip is inferred when exact stop calls cannot be published.
Predictions at stops inside the ward
83.5% within five minutes of the timetable across 330,590 eligible final provider predictions and 20 weekdays. These are not verified physical arrivals.
Predictions do not prove physical arrival.
Routes to inspect
Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026If available, these are route-wide vehicle-position matches for routes serving the ward. They do not locate a missed trip inside this ward or prove a cancellation. Each comparison uses scheduled trips for that same route and window.
- 3011 of 2 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
- 110341 of 346 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
- 163407 of 409 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
Scheduled calls, sources and limits
18 routes · 274 stops. Timetable inventory, not trips delivered.
Cancellations at stops in this ward
Local count cannot be published
Exact stop-call evidence could not be read for Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026. No zero is assumed.
Dates, source versions and limits
Method: retained-pre-service-exact-trip-stop-call-v1. Cancellation-feed completeness and position coverage are unverified.
The retained timetables were fetched, imported and first activated before the service day. The archive does not prove they remained the active timetables throughout that period. Comparisons between places remain unavailable.
Verdict
What would fix transit here
Worked out from the routes that serve this ward. Each item names the route, when it happens, and what would change it.
6 of 10 show repeated provider predictions later than the timetable, consistent with a possible scheduled running-time shortfall. A scheduler should test that scenario against operations; labour, fleet, recovery and transfer impacts are not established here.
Worst here: route 110, predictions later than timetable 15:00 to 18:00, 3.8 min late.
Best here: route 67, predictions consistently close to timetable, 96%.
10 of 10 routes here had something measurable to report.
- 00:00: 93.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 5,654 predictions, typically 0.1 min late
- 01:00: 92.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,573 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
- 02:00: 84.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,565 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
- 03:00: 94.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 561 predictions, typically 0.7 min early
- 04:00: 93.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,350 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
- 05:00: 84.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 10,137 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
- 06:00: 91% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 19,367 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
- 07:00: 84.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 23,563 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
- 08:00: 77.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,823 predictions, typically 2 min late
- 09:00: 82.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 23,106 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
- 10:00: 85.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,988 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
- 11:00: 83.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,709 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
- 12:00: 84.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,983 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
- 13:00: 84.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 23,003 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
- 14:00: 81.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,624 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
- 15:00: 77.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,624 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
- 16:00: 72.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 23,549 predictions, typically 2.4 min late
- 17:00: 71% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,572 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
- 18:00: 74.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,909 predictions, typically 2 min late
- 19:00: 85.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 22,463 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
- 20:00: 86.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 19,944 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
- 21:00: 89.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 15,494 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
- 22:00: 90.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 11,770 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
- 23:00: 91.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 8,037 predictions, typically 0.2 min late
- 90% or more of predictions within five minutes
- 80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
- under 80% of predictions within five minutes
- not enough data
| What | When | Measured | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable1101681611631651626 routes | 15:00 to 18:00 … 15:00 | 3.8 min late … 3.5 min late | More running time |
| StrengthPredictions consistently close to timetable671 routes | 05:00 to 22:00 | 96% | Keep what works |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match168163601621655 routes | 17:00 … 16:00 | 56% … 64% | Operations, not the timetable |
| ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable1101 routes | 21:00 | 1.6 min early | Less running time, or holding points |
| StrengthObserved-position lower bound686116816116367601651629 routes | All measured hours | 100% | Keep what works |
| CaveatCoverage gap1101 routes | All measured hours | 99% | More observation, not a service change |
How KANATA SOUTH is doing
These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.
Measured over 193 route-hours. 2 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.
Scheduling
Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.
- Who can fix it
- A service planner
- What it costs
- Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.
Predictions close to the timetable
92.7%
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.
Route-hours with repeated late predictions
13of 193
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.
Route-hours with early predictions
1of 193
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.
Typical predicted delay
3.5min
The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.
Operations
Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.
- Who can fix it
- Operations, and often the road itself
- What it costs
- Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.
Prediction gap below twenty minutes
100%
Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.
Route-hours with wide prediction gaps
0of 193
Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.
Typical prediction gap
Not enough evidence this month to publish this indicator.
The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.
Service, per the imported timetable
Scheduled transit, provider prediction agreement with the timetable, and public services in this ward.
Provider prediction agreement
83.5% of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable. 276,116 of 330,590 settled trip-stop predictions at stops inside this ward matched that range across 20 weekdays with feed evidence, from Oct 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. These are provider predictions, not independently observed arrivals.
2 partial-capture days not counted.
- Predictions within five minutes
- 276,116
- Eligible trip-stop predictions
- 330,590
- Observed days
- 20 weekdays
How this compares
Ranked 3 of 22 measured wards. 5.1 points above the city median of 78.4%.
Highest: ward 22 at 85.1%. Lowest: ward 21 at 60.3%.
Only wards whose evidence meets the publication threshold are ranked. Same window and same method for each.
Which routes need closer review
10 of the 18 routes serving this ward have enough provider-prediction evidence to compare. Lowest timetable agreement first.
- 110Open route 71.6%Predictions within five minutes
113,377 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 163Open route 77.8%Predictions within five minutes
57,175 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 161Open route 81.3%Predictions within five minutes
74,311 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 168Open route 82.7%Predictions within five minutes
110,481 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 162Open route 83.5%Predictions within five minutes
22,123 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 165Open route 84.0%Predictions within five minutes
17,846 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 68Open route 84.6%Predictions within five minutes
159,114 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 61Open route 86.3%Predictions within five minutes
131,703 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 60Open route 87.5%Predictions within five minutes
32,160 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 67Open route 93.0%Predictions within five minutes
33,418 eligible predictions across the whole route
8 more routes here are not ranked: school, express, shopper or event service, whose schedule result does not compare the same way.
Vehicle visibility to investigate
Vehicle visibility to investigate
The current summary uses seven days. For every route, you can also open yesterday, the last 7 days, or the last 30 days and inspect the day, scheduled trip, excluded feed gaps, and every observed public vehicle ID. An absence does not prove a vehicle fault or operator decision.
| Route | Scheduled trips | With a position | Without a matched position | Coverage | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 301 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | |
| 110 | 346 | 341 | 5 | 98.6% | |
| 163 | 409 | 407 | 2 | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 756 | 753 | 3 | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 476 | 474 | 2 | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 911 | 908 | 3 | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 398 | 397 | 1 | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 433 | 433 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 60 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 165 | 300 | 300 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 162 | 291 | 291 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 256 | 95 | 95 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 667 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 668 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 688 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 646 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 561 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 303 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100.0% |
Routes serving the ward
18 scheduled routesMap & current service
Current service inside this boundary
Scheduled lines, stops, and observed buses share one map. Select a route or vehicle for details.
Evidence & sources
Imported municipal polygon · 19 boundary vertices · City of Ottawa ward boundaries · imported Aug 4, 2026
Public amenity record for this ward
Public washrooms and drinking water
Choose a category to check which location details are available.Public washrooms (City data) 8
The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.
Drinking water (City data) 5
The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.
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Evidence included with the draft
- Canonical Otranspo evidence link
- https://otranspo.ca/en/city/wards/23
- Sources and time
- Sources and time: open the linked report for its source records and published or imported timestamps.
- Limitations
- Limitations: Otranspo is independent and may show unknown, suppressed, delayed, or corrected values. Confirm urgent or current service matters with the official agency.
Rate or report an issue
Rider evidence
Community reports
Signals below are moderated community aggregates, not official operator notices or reliability scores.
You can report without signing in. Anonymous reports count a little less when we calculate public patterns. You can add an account after submitting.
Report a specific problem
- Graffiti
- Cleanliness
- Lighting
- Snow or ice
- Washroom unavailable
- Water unavailable
- Accessibility barrier
- Other issue
Emergency: call 9-1-1. Check official OC Transpo or STO notices before travelling.
Civic evidence brief
The identity, boundary, contacts, service scope and evidence dates behind this ward report, kept together so the page can be cited without losing its qualifications.
- Municipality
- City of Ottawa, Ontario
- Geographic unit
- Official City of Ottawa municipal ward 23: KANATA SOUTH
- Boundary and vintage
- City ward layer · effective not published · imported August 4, 2026
- Official civic contacts
- Allan Hubley · Councillor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
- Mark Sutcliffe · Mayor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
- Relevant scheduled service
- 18 public route records with a stop inside this boundary · operators: OC Transpo
- Transit evidence vintage
- Timetable import: not published · reliability window: Oct 3, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026
A ward boundary, route inventory, destination list, population count or employment count supplies civic context. None of those values alone measures passenger demand, household trip effects, transfers or daily attendance.
Ottawa wards are municipal wards. They are not Gatineau electoral districts, and results from the two boundary systems are not interchangeable.
Evidence behind this pageOpen the definition, method, sources, dates, coverage, and known limits.
What is being shown
A ward-level inventory of scheduled transit, public washrooms, drinking-water locations, and eligible final OC Transpo provider predictions at stops inside the ward.
How it was produced
Current imported records are assigned by point-in-polygon to the sourced ward boundary. Reliability uses one eligible final provider prediction per trip, stop, and service date in the latest 28 completed service days. Within five minutes is measured against the timetable, not a physical arrival. Publication requires 20 weekdays with prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions.
Evidence dates
- Imported
- Computed or assembled
- Sample
- 330,590 eligible settled provider predictions across 20 weekdays with prediction evidence support the reliability result.
- Method or data version
- ward-counts-v1 + ward-stop-settled-arrivals-purpose-aware-v3
- Source checksum
- ward-reliability:689beec2499cc982316c6b98f593c3b370971dfed20aaf08e6f5f417ded17a18
Sources
Limits to keep in mind
- Counts describe the published inventory inside the boundary, not service quality or access from every address.
- Reliability covers final OC Transpo provider predictions at geographically assigned stops; physical arrivals are not independently measured. Rail and trips without eligible prediction evidence are not represented.
- An unavailable count remains unavailable. It is not changed to zero.
How we measure this
For each trip, stop and service date at stops inside the ward, we keep the last eligible OC Transpo prediction and compare it with the timetable. It counts as within five minutes when the two are no more than five minutes apart. This is not a physical arrival.
The window is the latest 28 completed service days. A result is published only with 20 weekdays of prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions. Route results cover each whole route, not only the part inside the ward.
Read the full methodContains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – City of Ottawa.