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SERVICE EVIDENCE

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Selected calculations can change; dated publications stay frozen.

Ow service window

Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 31, 2026Oct 1–31, 2026

Kìzis · OC Transpo miinawaa STO

Selected-date calculation · Calculated Nov 3, 2026, 9:38 a.m.

Maadaginan
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Aanjitoon

Selected-date calculation · Calculated Nov 3, 2026, 9:38 a.m.

Maadaginan
Build a cited briefing

Citywide answer

Within five minutes

Selected-date calculation

77.6%Share of eligible settled provider predictions; physical arrivals are not independently measured.

8,215,961 Eligible predictions

Miikanan gaa-dibaabiishkoojigaadegin
149
Measured days in this window
22 / 31Days

Predictions for the selected period

Within five minutes
6,377,211
Outside five minutes
1,838,750

Outside includes early and late predictions. This does not count missed trips or independently measured physical arrivals.

Inspect routes by outside-five-minute record count ↗

Routes to inspect

Where route results differ

Every route meeting this report’s sample rule

Explore routes and times ↗

Every route meeting this report’s sample rule, including routes between the highest and lowest groups. Routes with too little data and other service purposes are listed separately.

Cancellation archive evidence

1,498 · Explicit cancellation notices

How to read this count

Records are deduplicated by operator, service date, trip ID and relationship; one trip can have multiple records (for example, separate CANCELED and DELETED records), and later reinstatements are not represented. Archive coverage is unverified, so this is not a complete period total or a count of unique trips that did not run.

Delivery and vehicle-position evidence

Other evidence for this period

These sources have separate coverage and cannot explain or complete the result above.

Explicit cancellation notices
1,498Scheduled trips marked cancelled without a qualifying later matching vehicle observation in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Archive coverage is unverified; no records is not zero cancellations.
Frequent service spacing
49 miikanan gaa-dibaabiishkoojigaadeginPredicted excess waiting time from matched high-frequency arrival cohorts; this is not actual passenger waiting time.
Positions without published trip assignment
1,068Archived public vehicle positions where no trip was assigned. This does not prove a vehicle was out of service. Distance is a minimum straight-line path between eligible samples.

Comparison withheld · Timetable provenance is missing

2026-09-01–2026-09-30

Comparison evidence and coverage

Matched prediction comparison

This compares eligible final provider predictions against their scheduled times. It does not verify physical arrivals, prove a cause, or establish equivalent service.

Kìjigadan àbadjitòmagadon gete route calendars kaye exceptions. Kìjigadan kà-bimiwidjigesinog kawin agindàsosinòn. Kìshpin wanisinog lineage, kawin wàbandaming.

Gaa-ishkwaa-ayaag giizis · 2026-09-01–2026-09-30

Common route and weekday weights · prediction-comparison-v2

Noongom

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

Baseline

Eligible raw rate: —

Matched comparison rate: —

— / — eligible predictions / predictions within the scheduled threshold

Sample counts are withheld; missing values are not zero. Timetable provenance is missing

A matched difference is withheld: Timetable provenance is missing

Per-route coverage · —; Matched route days · not used by this method; Omitted route days · —; Common weights · —

Empty evidence lists have not been assessed for this refused comparison. Timetable provenance is missing

    Timetable feed versions: 05854a47-c0dc-4f34-b076-4827f6d196f0, 1ea7c84b-eae6-4787-8aaa-01523b4e6619, 2ce66ec0-4b13-470f-ad5e-045e7bbe5fab, 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad, 44936c9b-7dbb-44c9-8e2c-6051bb87b4da, 54ca76e7-e78f-4623-a135-ab2c87e99d32, 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945, 9aab3e5d-2362-4d44-ab42-b8628a59d804, adf8b6f0-5fb9-4eca-bcb9-68f5235502fc, b6dda873-b797-49b3-a4a6-542fad672eef, ca455c71-c30a-4e4d-8b72-2709212731cd, cdda76b5-d299-4755-bb81-ca8cd4d16647, db43ff4c-ff08-4e90-845b-a8642cd1bcef, dd66f011-17ec-4399-858c-01706b8c5a64, debdbb8c-5a7b-407a-9f7b-52db7d3c7b85, e0f8038a-45e7-4a47-99c2-308c0f049f72, e582db1b-46c9-4756-8b25-9782f02ba21b, ece8fa79-2586-440c-9315-8c39b470256f, edd82b80-107c-4eac-9121-2bff2579fdf8 / —

    Method & coverage ↗
    Sources, coverage and comparisons

    Track service days

    How the selected calculation changed each day

    OC Transpo miinawaa STO · Within five minutes · 30/31 dates with a daily value; 1 date without a value; 9 dates marked as partial capture

    Lowest measured69.7%

    Oct 3, 2026 · 240,074 Eligible predictions

    Highest measured83.3%

    Oct 26, 2026 · 312,810 Eligible predictions

    1. 1Oct 1, 2026: 75.9%; 359,327 Eligible predictions
    2. Oct 2, 2026: 80.8% · Some operator data excluded; 88,624 Eligible predictions
    3. Lowest measured. Oct 3, 2026: 69.7%; 240,074 Eligible predictions
    4. Oct 4, 2026: 76.8%; 203,328 Eligible predictions
    5. Oct 5, 2026: 83.4% · Some operator data excluded; 276,376 Eligible predictions
    6. Oct 6, 2026: 77.4%; 360,314 Eligible predictions
    7. Oct 7, 2026: 76.6%; 360,186 Eligible predictions
    8. 8Oct 8, 2026: Partial capture, not counted; — Eligible predictions
    9. Oct 9, 2026: 76.3% · Some operator data excluded; 274,738 Eligible predictions
    10. Oct 10, 2026: 70.9% · Some operator data excluded; 191,984 Eligible predictions
    11. Oct 11, 2026: 77.7% · Some operator data excluded; 160,951 Eligible predictions
    12. Oct 12, 2026: 87.4% · Some operator data excluded; 162,117 Eligible predictions
    13. Oct 13, 2026: 78.4% · Some operator data excluded; 275,411 Eligible predictions
    14. Oct 14, 2026: 75.9%; 359,884 Eligible predictions
    15. 15Oct 15, 2026: 79.5% · Some operator data excluded; 87,582 Eligible predictions
    16. Oct 16, 2026: 81%; 357,948 Eligible predictions
    17. Oct 17, 2026: 70.9%; 229,165 Eligible predictions
    18. Oct 18, 2026: 77.2%; 201,369 Eligible predictions
    19. Oct 19, 2026: 80%; 351,995 Eligible predictions
    20. Oct 20, 2026: 76.5%; 350,320 Eligible predictions
    21. Oct 21, 2026: 76.2%; 319,525 Eligible predictions
    22. 22Oct 22, 2026: 75.3%; 320,138 Eligible predictions
    23. Oct 23, 2026: 79.3%; 352,029 Eligible predictions
    24. Oct 24, 2026: 70.4%; 229,997 Eligible predictions
    25. Oct 25, 2026: 74.5%; 160,318 Eligible predictions
    26. Highest measured. Oct 26, 2026: 83.3%; 312,810 Eligible predictions
    27. Oct 27, 2026: 80.1%; 350,664 Eligible predictions
    28. Oct 28, 2026: 80.8%; 341,481 Eligible predictions
    29. 29Oct 29, 2026: 79.6%; 351,555 Eligible predictions
    30. Oct 30, 2026: 80.3%; 354,049 Eligible predictions
    31. 31Oct 31, 2026: 72.9%; 231,702 Eligible predictions

    Share of eligible settled provider predictions; physical arrivals are not independently measured.

    Partial capture: an operator had too few captured records or a recorded timetable mismatch on these dates, so its affected records are excluded. Eligible records from another operator may still contribute to the network result. Check the coverage count separately to see how many days were measured. Oct 2, 2026 (OC Transpo): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 5, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 8, 2026 (OC Transpo): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 8, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 9, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 10, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 11, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 12, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 13, 2026 (STO): recorded timetable mismatch, Oct 15, 2026 (OC Transpo): recorded timetable mismatch

    Exact daily values
    Exact daily values
    Anokiiwin giizhigadWithin five minutesEligible predictions
    Oct 1, 2026 ↗75.9%359,327
    Oct 2, 2026 ↗80.8% · Some operator data excluded88,624
    Oct 3, 2026 ↗69.7%240,074
    Oct 4, 2026 ↗76.8%203,328
    Oct 5, 2026 ↗83.4% · Some operator data excluded276,376
    Oct 6, 2026 ↗77.4%360,314
    Oct 7, 2026 ↗76.6%360,186
    Oct 8, 2026 ↗Partial capture, not counted—
    Oct 9, 2026 ↗76.3% · Some operator data excluded274,738
    Oct 10, 2026 ↗70.9% · Some operator data excluded191,984
    Oct 11, 2026 ↗77.7% · Some operator data excluded160,951
    Oct 12, 2026 ↗87.4% · Some operator data excluded162,117
    Oct 13, 2026 ↗78.4% · Some operator data excluded275,411
    Oct 14, 2026 ↗75.9%359,884
    Oct 15, 2026 ↗79.5% · Some operator data excluded87,582
    Oct 16, 2026 ↗81%357,948
    Oct 17, 2026 ↗70.9%229,165
    Oct 18, 2026 ↗77.2%201,369
    Oct 19, 2026 ↗80%351,995
    Oct 20, 2026 ↗76.5%350,320
    Oct 21, 2026 ↗76.2%319,525
    Oct 22, 2026 ↗75.3%320,138
    Oct 23, 2026 ↗79.3%352,029
    Oct 24, 2026 ↗70.4%229,997
    Oct 25, 2026 ↗74.5%160,318
    Oct 26, 2026 ↗83.3%312,810
    Oct 27, 2026 ↗80.1%350,664
    Oct 28, 2026 ↗80.8%341,481
    Oct 29, 2026 ↗79.6%351,555
    Oct 30, 2026 ↗80.3%354,049
    Oct 31, 2026 ↗72.9%231,702
    Sources and interpretation · Days with route records
    Eligible predictions
    8,215,961
    Miikanan gaa-dibaabiishkoojigaadegin
    149
    Days with route records
    22 / 31 days

    31 measured

    Inspect matched comparison evidence

    Manual read of this report’s date and operator, independent of the route-hour chart. Counts are settled provider predictions, not independently observed physical arrivals.

    Oshki dibàbandjigan

    October 2026: oshki-inaakonigewinan

    Odaabaanan ogii-gashkitoonaawaa 1 onji 1 ge-dibaabandamang, October 2026. 7 kà-gì-ikidowad kàwin kashkitòsinàn ji-agindamang noongom.

    Observed gwayak apii Kawin mashi. Countdown accuracy, mewinzha headline, Kawin mashi.

    Wàbandan kakina nishwàswi ikidowinan

    Ezhi-dibàbandamàng ow

    Masinahiganan kà-gì-sàgaàg kàwin àndjisesinòn. Oshki agindasowinan pìdji-ayàwan, kikinawàdjitòwan.

    Daily prediction chart

    Oct 1 – Oct 31, 2026 · both operators

    77.6% of odàbàn tagoshinowin were within five minutes. Samdi were the weak spot.

    Partial data · 22 of 31 daysNo comparison yet
    Headline rate
    77.6%
    Records counted
    8,215,961
    6,377,211 within · 1,838,750 outside
    Best day
    87.4%
    Monday, October 12
    Worst day
    69.7%
    Saturday, October 3

    Day by day

    • Weekday
    • Sàmdi
    • Sunday or holiday
    • Partial day
    • No data
    • Period average
    Lowest Oct 3 (69.7%). Highest Oct 12 (87.4%). No data on Oct 8.

    What stands out

    • The 3 lowest days were all Samdi.

    Where routes land

    • Under 20%0
    • 20 to 40%1
    • 40 to 60%6
    • 60 biinish 80%57
    • 80 to 100%75
    See the 7 routes below 60%

    139 routes had enough data to rank.

    The 7 routes below 60%

    Every prediction counted

    Within: 6,377,211 (77.6%) Outside: 1,838,750 (22.4%)

    Outside five minutes covers early and late. Missed trips are counted separately, in Cancellations.

    Ask about this report

    The AI reading uses only this report’s own numbers, cites the figures it used, and says when the data cannot answer.

    Open the AI reading of this report
    Ezhi-dibàbandamàng ow

    We check the arrival predictions OC Transpo and STO publish, once each trip has finished, and count how many landed within five minutes, early or late.

    This tells you how far to trust the countdown on your screen. It is not an independent check of where the bus really was.

    Read the full method