Detour Route 47 South: Route 47 diverted from Fraser to Norval-Jones.+2 more notice

No 47 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in 11月Cancellations →

Previous measure: 85.2% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (11,856 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

路線 47: Hawthorne ⇄ St-Laurent

每 29 至 30 分鐘一班

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月28日 – 2026年11月3日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 2 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 2.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 84 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

84 with position · 0 to investigate · 0 excluded · 84 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月4日下午1:47.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 6 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 84 / 84 (100%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月4日下午12:20

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

85.2%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 11,856
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: 2026年10月6日 – 2026年11月3日

The hours we have evidence for

0時94% · 174 predictions · 14 days
1時93% · 372 predictions · 14 days
5時100% · 240 predictions · 10 days
6時65% · 711 predictions · 10 days
7時68% · 960 predictions · 10 days
8時72% · 741 predictions · 10 days
11時100% · 114 predictions · 14 days
12時97% · 461 predictions · 14 days
15時95% · 755 predictions · 10 days
16時92% · 850 predictions · 10 days
17時98% · 901 predictions · 10 days
18時98% · 310 predictions · 10 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月4日

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

12 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

巴士扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月3日: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月15日.

數值與說明

No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (3,873 pairs checked at stops).

0% of pairs (0) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

巴士扎堆到站
時段	已檢查的配對	擠成一團	間隔過長
早上繁忙時段(上午 6 時至 9 時)	1,228	0% (0)	0% (0)
下午繁忙時段(下午3時至6時)	2,158	0% (0)	0% (0)
晚間（下午 6 時至 10 時）	487	0% (0)	0% (0)

此數據如何計算 →How we got this number每條路線的車輛擠在一起和慢速路段 →

這條路線最慢的路段

Slowest: ST-LAURENT A to WALKLEY / LANCASTER, 21.5 km/h actual against 23.4 km/h planned.

這條路線最慢的路段
起點	目的地	距離	計劃速度	實際速度	已量測的行程	緩慢班次
ST-LAURENT A	WALKLEY / LANCASTER	4.9 km	23.4 km/h	21.5 km/h	138	1%
RUSSELL / HYDRO	WALKLEY / LANCASTER	5.9 km	25.4 km/h	26.9 km/h	139	0%

慢速行程是指所需時間至少為計畫時間的 1.5 倍。

此數據如何計算 →

此路線的取消班次

這些詞的意思 →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from 10月7日週三 to 11月3日週二.

Not counted: 4 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

取消班次最多的時段: 上午8時 (1)

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.5 min later than the timetable in 3 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.3 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 2.9 min along the route.

Provider predictions are about 1.1 min earlier than the timetable, 12:00.

06:00 has 65% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 94% the rest of the day.

Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.

Scenario: 4 min more running time on 60 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 12 hours with samples

00:00: 93.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 174 predictions, typically 1 min late
01:00: 92.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 372 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 240 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
06:00: 64.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 711 predictions, typically 4.3 min late
07:00: 68.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 960 predictions, typically 3 min late
08:00: 71.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 741 predictions, typically 3.5 min late
09:00: not enough data
10:00: not enough data
11:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 114 predictions, typically 0.3 min early
12:00: 96.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 461 predictions, typically 1.1 min early
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 94.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 755 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
16:00: 91.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 850 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
17:00: 98% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 901 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
18:00: 97.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 310 predictions, typically 1 min late
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	時間	已測量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	06:00 to 09:00	3.5 min late	More running time
ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable	12:00	1.1 min early	Less running time, or holding points
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	06:00	65%	Operations, not the timetable
StrengthObserved-position lower bound	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 06:00 to 09:00: Measured arrivals 2,412; Hours affected 3; Spread 6.5 min; Median delay 3.5 min; Suggested running time change 3.5 min
Predictions earlier than timetable · 12:00: Measured arrivals 461; Hours affected 1; Spread 2 min; Median delay -1.1 min; Suggested running time change -1.1 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 06:00: 小時 06:00; 準點 64.6%; Measured arrivals 711; Shortfall 29.6 pts; Route median on time 94.2%
Observed-position lower bound · All measured hours: 目標 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 100%; 服務日 7; Trips with a matching position 84; 時刻表班次 84

開啟歷史紀錄、可靠度與路線分析

路線檢查

How route 47 has been running

這是我們所知內容的簡短摘要。如果無法回答某個問題，我們會說明。

重點結論

業者的預測通常與時刻表相近，但請查看下方有問題的時段。

85 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 11,856 predictions checked

預測樣本數: 樣本較大

Based on 11,856 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日.

Updated 2026年11月4日下午12:32

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

這些是預測與班表之間反覆出現的差異，並非獨立測得的服務失誤。它們使用與上方結果相同的合格預測，但按站點而非時段分組，因此兩份清單不一定逐行相符。

6時–7時: 35 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (711 predictions over 10 days).
7時–8時: 32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (960 predictions over 10 days).

目前沒有與此路線相符的官方通知。

各站的預測差異

RUSSELL / AD. 3900
49 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (169 predictions over 30 days).
開啟此站牌
RUSSELL / AD. 3818
49 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (169 predictions over 30 days).
開啟此站牌
BELGREEN / AD. 4123
47 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (169 predictions over 30 days).
開啟此站牌
BELGREEN / RUSSELL
47 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (169 predictions over 30 days).
開啟此站牌

這些是各路線業者提供的預測,並與時刻表比較。它們顯示某個地點和時段反覆出現的預測差異,不是實測的到站時間,也不能說明原因。

查看每個班次和日期

打開一個時段,即可查看每個服務日、預定班次、資料空檔、已觀察到的公開車輛編號,以及此摘要背後的確切數字。

乘客想知道的事

現在有任何班次被取消嗎?: 0 of 6檢查未來 4 小時內從路線端點出發的行程。這不是歷史取消率。
檢查資料缺口後，可能的未到班次？: 0 of 84 checked trips need a closer look0 of 84 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 84 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
服務提供者的預測與時刻表有何不同?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 7.9 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)85 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
營運商的預測意味著要等多久？: 目前沒有任何路線層級的結果達到證據門檻。這不代表沒有出現服務空檔。

時刻表變更檢查

已發布的時刻表：變更前與變更後

此頁面比較目前保留的官方時刻表與先前保留的版本。時刻表變更只說明原本的計劃,不能證明某個班次已經行駛。

Current published schedule began 2026年10月30日

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

我們會檢查新時刻表開始後的第一個星期一，以及一週前的星期一。所有數字都來自下列保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所選日期中，至少有一個日期有新增或取消的特定日期服務。請將此視為假日或特別服務的情況，而不是平日一般的服務增加。

變更前

已核對的服務日期: 2026年10月26日

時刻表班次: 16
不同的預定停靠站數量: 82
已公布的不同路線: 2
已公布的服務時段: 05:45–01:13 next day

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

資料串流指紋: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

新時刻表

已核對的服務日期: 2026年11月2日

時刻表班次: 16
不同的預定停靠站數量: 82
已公布的不同路線: 2
已公布的服務時段: 05:45–01:13 next day

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

資料串流指紋: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

我們會比較變更前後各 14 天已確認的到站紀錄。只有在變更前後兩段時間都至少有 7 個服務日和 200 次到站紀錄時，我們才會公布比較結果。

Still collecting: before has 6,569 arrivals over 14 days; after has 2,081 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

校驗碼可讓任何人核對，是哪一份留存的時刻表產生這些數量。數量有變動，並不能說明原因、取消、營運單位的決定或對乘客的影響。

如何評估這條路線: 每站停靠的一般路線

我們把每個預定到達班次的最後一筆合資格業者預測，與官方時刻表比較。這些不是獨立量測的到達時間。結果至少需要 200 筆合資格預測。這裡採用乘客角度的目標：誤差在 5 分鐘內。

這些數據無法證明的事

公開資料來源沒有提供可靠的乘客人數，也沒有提供漏載乘客的事件。缺少車輛位置，本身並不能證明班次取消、未出車、中途折返或其原因。

查看定義、門檻和數據順序

官方即時資料：明確的取消班次、跳過的站點及目前有效的通知。
配對觀測資料:與官方時刻表相連的車輛位置和已確定的預測。
官方時刻表:原本的計畫,與實際觀察到的情況分開顯示。
乘客和營運單位的回報:這些是關於路線、時間和地點的線索,值得調查,但本身不是數字證明。

暫定結果，已公布的數據

預測與時刻表相比如何?

每個小時都會把某班預定到站的最後一次合格業者預測與時刻表比較。「5 分鐘內」是指預測與時刻表的差距，不是實際量到的到站時間，也不能證明巴士有行駛。

佐證期間: 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日

與時刻表相差 5 分鐘內: 85.2%
已查核的合格預測: 11,856
有資料的平日: 19
第95百分位預測延誤: 7.9 min late

Patterns by hour (12)

Patterns by hour (12)
小時	準點	中位數	第 95 百分位	證據
00:00	93.7%	1 min late	7.2 min late	174 · 14 days
01:00	92.5%	0.4 min late	6.1 min late	372 · 14 days
05:00	100.0%	1.3 min late	3.3 min late	240 · 10 days
06:00	64.6%	4.3 min late	10.8 min late	711 · 10 days
07:00	68.1%	3 min late	8.6 min late	960 · 10 days
08:00	71.7%	3.5 min late	13.7 min late	741 · 10 days
11:00	100.0%	0.3 min early	2.8 min late	114 · 14 days
12:00	96.5%	1.1 min early	0.9 min late	461 · 14 days
15:00	94.6%	0.3 min late	6.5 min late	755 · 10 days
16:00	91.8%	0.5 min late	5.3 min late	850 · 10 days
17:00	98.0%	0.3 min late	2.9 min late	901 · 10 days
18:00	97.7%	1 min late	3.4 min late	310 · 10 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

有排定班次的巴士，但沒有即時觀察記錄

84 / 84 scheduled trips published at least one position across 7 service days (100.0%).

00:000 / 7 trips without a position100.0%
05:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
06:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
11:000 / 7 trips without a position100.0%

這不是已確認的未發車。 找不到車輛位置，可能是班次取消或漏班，也可能是班次編號未指派，或是營運單位的資料來源出現缺口。Otranspo 公布這項缺口，因為這對乘客很重要，同時也會如實處理，不作過度推論。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 來源與限制.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 16 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:45– 06:07
Trip 21611030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:34 a.m. EST / 6:07 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:15– 06:38
Trip 28315030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:05 a.m. EST / 6:49 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:45– 07:10
Trip 28796030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:01 a.m. EST / 7:16 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:15– 07:40
Trip 3282030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:03 a.m. EST / 7:46 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:35– 07:59
Trip 33426030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:36 a.m. EST / 8:01 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:06– 08:30
Trip 10498030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:07 a.m. EST / 8:30 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:37– 09:00
Trip 27779030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:39 a.m. EST / 9:05 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:55– 12:22
Trip 2028030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:22 a.m. EST / 12:20 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:05– 15:32
Trip 7383030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 2:54 p.m. EST / 3:46 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:36– 16:06
Trip 27059030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:29 p.m. EST / 4:18 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:05– 16:35
Trip 5748030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:55 p.m. EST / 4:32 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:35– 17:03
Trip 19829030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:24 p.m. EST / 5:12 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

路線 47: Hawthorne ⇄ St-Laurent

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

巴士扎堆到站

這條路線最慢的路段

此路線的取消班次

最新取消的班次

What this route needs

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

查看每個班次和日期

乘客想知道的事

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

變更前

新時刻表

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

預測與時刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day

Did the scheduled service run?

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips needing investigation

What does the evidence show?

The hours we have evidence for

What about time of day?

巴士扎堆到站

這條路線最慢的路段

此路線的取消班次

最新取消的班次

What this route needs

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

查看每個班次和日期

乘客想知道的事

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

變更前

新時刻表

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

預測與時刻表相比如何?

Trips scheduled that day