No 226 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in 11月Cancellations →

路線 226: Chapel Hill ⇄ Blair

每 15 至 18 分鐘一班

往 Chapel Hill2 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

BLAIR A
ST JOSEPH / R.R. 17440 min
BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH41 min
BEARBROOK / LAFARGE ASPHALT44 min
BEARBROOK / HORNET'S NEST PARK8 min sched.
BEARBROOK / HORNET'S NEST PARK8 min sched.
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK1 min sched.
WESTPARK / VALEWOOD1 min sched.
WESTPARK / PARKRIDGE2 min sched.
WESTPARK / PARKRIDGE0 min
WESTPARK / PARKWOOD0 min
WESTPARK / HIGHPARK1 min
WESTPARK / BEARBROOK1 min
BEARBROOK / CENTREPARK2 min
BEARBROOK / CENTREPARK2 min
BEARBROOK / AD 1003 min
INNES / GLEN PARK4 min
INNES / ORIENT PARK5 min
EASTPARK / WEDGEWOOD6 min
EASTPARK / BEECHMONT7 min
EASTPARK / OAKHURST8 min
EASTPARK / RED MAPLE8 min
INNES / RONDEL9 min sched.
INNES / CLÉROUX19 min sched.
INNES / CLÉROUX20 min sched.
INNES / BLACKBURN HAMLET20 min sched.
NAVAN / AD. 28781 min
CHAPEL HILL A6 min
FERN CASEY / AXIS9 min
COMPASS / SHINLEAF10 min
COMPASS / ENCLAVE11 min
RENAUD / COMPASS11 min
RENAUD / DE LA MÉLODIE12 min
RENAUD / PENENCY12 min
NAVAN / PAGÉ13 min
NAVAN / TOPSOIL13 min
CHAPEL HILL B7 min sched.

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: 2026年10月28日 – 2026年11月3日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 3 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 3.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 120 trips with a usable feed window (0.8%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

119 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 120 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月4日下午6:03.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 1 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 119 / 120 (99.2%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月4日下午4:39

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

This service purpose needs a different method. A general percentage could give a misleading picture.

Predictions in the source: 12,668
Weekdays with evidence: 18
Evidence window: 2026年10月6日 – 2026年11月3日

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月4日

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

The general hourly comparison is not suitable for this service purpose. Source records remain available.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

巴士扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月3日: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月15日.

數值與說明

2% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 166 of 10,261 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

2% of pairs (249) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

巴士扎堆到站
時段	已檢查的配對	擠成一團	間隔過長
早上繁忙時段(上午 6 時至 9 時)	5,126	2% (111)	2% (77)
中午(上午 9 時至下午 3 時)	112	1% (1)	0% (0)
下午繁忙時段(下午3時至6時)	3,942	1% (45)	0% (1)
晚間（下午 6 時至 10 時）	1,081	1% (9)	16% (171)

此數據如何計算 →How we got this number每條路線的車輛擠在一起和慢速路段 →

這條路線最慢的路段

Slowest: CHAPEL HILL A to RENAUD / GLENLIVET, 14.1 km/h actual against 18.8 km/h planned.

這條路線最慢的路段
起點	目的地	距離	計劃速度	實際速度	已量測的行程	緩慢班次
CHAPEL HILL A	RENAUD / GLENLIVET	1.1 km	18.8 km/h	14.1 km/h	114	38%
INNES / RONDEL	RENAUD / COMPASS	4.9 km	19.5 km/h	20.1 km/h	117	0%
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	INNES / RONDEL	3.4 km	25.7 km/h	20.3 km/h	118	11%
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	ST JOSEPH / BEARBROOK	1.7 km	15.2 km/h	23.1 km/h	210	5%
RENAUD / GLENLIVET	EASTPARK / INNES	5.1 km	38.6 km/h	26.1 km/h	117	60%
EASTPARK / INNES	BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	3.4 km	49.5 km/h	26.6 km/h	207	73%
BLAIR A	BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH	3.7 km	44.3 km/h	27.8 km/h	187	49%
BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH	BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	1.6 km	12 km/h	35.5 km/h	184	1%

慢速行程是指所需時間至少為計畫時間的 1.5 倍。

此數據如何計算 →

此路線的取消班次

這些詞的意思 →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

過去四週內,這條路線沒有計入的取消班次。我們無法核實的通知會列在下方。

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 120 trips we could check.

開啟附日期的預測分析

結論

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 4.5 min later than the timetable in 5 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 3.6 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 4.7 min along the route.

07:00 has 37% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 61% the rest of the day.

Only 99% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 5 min more running time on 130 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 9 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 57.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 315 predictions, typically 4.3 min late
06:00: 60.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,114 predictions, typically 3.8 min late
07:00: 36.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,115 predictions, typically 6.6 min late
08:00: 53.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,065 predictions, typically 4.5 min late
09:00: 45.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 70 predictions, typically 5.3 min late
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 90.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 670 predictions, typically 0.1 min early
16:00: 83.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,080 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
17:00: 89.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 980 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
18:00: 65.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 640 predictions, typically 0.1 min early
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	時間	已測量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	05:00 to 10:00	4.5 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	07:00	37%	Operations, not the timetable
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	99%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 05:00 to 10:00: Measured arrivals 3,679; Hours affected 5; Spread 8.1 min; Median delay 4.5 min; Suggested running time change 4.5 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 07:00: 小時 07:00; 準點 36.6%; Measured arrivals 1,115; Shortfall 24.2 pts; Route median on time 60.8%
Coverage gap · All measured hours: 目標 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.2%; 服務日 5; Trips with a matching position 119; 時刻表班次 120

開啟歷史紀錄、可靠度與路線分析

路線檢查

How route 226 has been running

這是我們所知內容的簡短摘要。如果無法回答某個問題，我們會說明。

重點結論

我們需要先知道這條快線在哪裡上車，才能評分。

預測樣本數: 樣本較大

Based on 12,668 eligible provider predictions over 18 measured days, from 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日.

Updated 2026年11月4日下午4:32

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

這些是預測與班表之間反覆出現的差異，並非獨立測得的服務失誤。它們使用與上方結果相同的合格預測，但按站點而非時段分組，因此兩份清單不一定逐行相符。

由於此服務需要針對特定目的進行測試,因此不會為問題時段排名。

目前沒有與此路線相符的官方通知。

各站的預測差異

我們目前還沒有足夠的各路線各站點歷史資料,無法指出經常出問題的站點。乘客回報只作為線索,不作為證明。

查看每個班次和日期

打開一個時段,即可查看每個服務日、預定班次、資料空檔、已觀察到的公開車輛編號,以及此摘要背後的確切數字。

乘客想知道的事

現在有任何班次被取消嗎?: 0 of 1檢查未來 4 小時內從路線端點出發的行程。這不是歷史取消率。
檢查資料缺口後，可能的未到班次？: 1 of 120 checked trips need a closer look1 of 120 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 120 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
服務提供者的預測與時刻表有何不同?: 證據尚不足
營運商的預測意味著要等多久？: 目前沒有任何路線層級的結果達到證據門檻。這不代表沒有出現服務空檔。

時刻表變更檢查

已發布的時刻表：變更前與變更後

此頁面比較目前保留的官方時刻表與先前保留的版本。時刻表變更只說明原本的計劃,不能證明某個班次已經行駛。

Current published schedule began 2026年10月30日

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

我們會檢查新時刻表開始後的第一個星期一，以及一週前的星期一。所有數字都來自下列保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所選日期中，至少有一個日期有新增或取消的特定日期服務。請將此視為假日或特別服務的情況，而不是平日一般的服務增加。

變更前

已核對的服務日期: 2026年10月26日

時刻表班次: 24
不同的預定停靠站數量: 71
已公布的不同路線: 4
已公布的服務時段: 05:39–18:41

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

資料串流指紋: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

新時刻表

已核對的服務日期: 2026年11月2日

時刻表班次: 24
不同的預定停靠站數量: 71
已公布的不同路線: 4
已公布的服務時段: 05:39–18:41

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

資料串流指紋: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

我們會比較變更前後各 14 天已確認的到站紀錄。只有在變更前後兩段時間都至少有 7 個服務日和 200 次到站紀錄時，我們才會公布比較結果。

一般的準點評分不適用於此路線的服務目的。班表數量仍然會顯示，但結果要等下文所述、符合此服務目的的數據證據。

校驗碼可讓任何人核對，是哪一份留存的時刻表產生這些數量。數量有變動，並不能說明原因、取消、營運單位的決定或對乘客的影響。

如何評估這條路線: 快速／通勤路線

進站方向的表現必須在上車點檢查。上車作業完成後，出站方向提早行駛，不會與一般路線的提早服務同樣看待。

這些數據無法證明的事

公開資料來源沒有提供可靠的乘客人數，也沒有提供漏載乘客的事件。缺少車輛位置，本身並不能證明班次取消、未出車、中途折返或其原因。

查看定義、門檻和數據順序

官方即時資料：明確的取消班次、跳過的站點及目前有效的通知。
配對觀測資料:與官方時刻表相連的車輛位置和已確定的預測。
官方時刻表:原本的計畫,與實際觀察到的情況分開顯示。
乘客和營運單位的回報:這些是關於路線、時間和地點的線索,值得調查,但本身不是數字證明。

暫定結果，已公布的數據

此結果背後的數據

未先確認此服務的用途,就不適合給予一般的準點評級。上方的路線檢查說明了所需的接送、社區服務或活動方面的證據。您仍可在下方查看已記錄的行程和資料缺口。

佐證期間: 2026年10月6日 to 2026年11月3日

已查核的合格預測: 12,668
有資料的平日: 18

有排定班次的巴士，但沒有即時觀察記錄

119 / 120 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (99.2%).

05:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
06:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
15:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
16:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%

這不是已確認的未發車。 找不到車輛位置，可能是班次取消或漏班，也可能是班次編號未指派，或是營運單位的資料來源出現缺口。Otranspo 公布這項缺口，因為這對乘客很重要，同時也會如實處理，不作過度推論。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 來源與限制.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 24 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 24 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:39– 06:03
Trip 35530030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:07 a.m. EST / 6:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:04– 06:18
Trip 24084030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:45 a.m. EST / 6:18 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:09– 06:33
Trip 5053030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:46 a.m. EST / 6:35 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:34– 06:48
Trip 30552030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:19 a.m. EST / 6:50 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:39– 07:03
Trip 26191030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:17 a.m. EST / 7:14 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:04– 07:18
Trip 29959030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:51 a.m. EST / 7:18 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:09– 07:33
Trip 20353030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:47 a.m. EST / 7:44 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:33– 07:48
Trip 5134030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:54 a.m. EST / 8:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:36– 08:03
Trip 34416030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:22 a.m. EST / 8:12 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:05– 08:20
Trip 31587030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:01 a.m. EST / 8:34 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:09– 08:36
Trip 18530030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:47 a.m. EST / 8:49 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:39– 09:12
Trip 7189030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:39 a.m. EST / 9:16 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day