No 158 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in 11月Cancellations →

路線 158: Bayshore ⇄ Haanel

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Evidence period: 2026年10月29日 – 2026年11月4日

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 1 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 1.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 20 trips with a usable feed window (5%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

19 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 20 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: 2026年11月5日下午5:22.

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 19 / 20 (95%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: 2026年11月5日下午3:10

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

The threshold is 200 eligible predictions. The available sample does not support publishing this result.

Predictions in the source: 181
Weekdays with evidence: 18
Evidence window: 2026年10月7日 – 2026年11月4日

The hours we have evidence for

7時61% · 33 predictions · 11 days
8時91% · 34 predictions · 11 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: 2026年11月5日

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

2 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

巴士扎堆到站

Last 28 days, 2026年10月8日 to 2026年11月4日: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: 2026年10月8日, 2026年10月15日.

Too few buses were measured to judge bunching: 0 pairs checked, 30 needed.

此數據如何計算 →How we got this number每條路線的車輛擠在一起和慢速路段 →

這條路線最慢的路段

Not enough trips yet to measure speed between timepoints (20 trips needed for each segment).

此數據如何計算 →

此路線附近的市政道路工程

渥太華市已公布的道路施工和活動封路，以靠近此路線行駛路徑來計算。靠近不代表巴士已改道。請查看營運單位自己的服務通知。

道路施工
Moodie S/B at 417 overpass
2026年11月2日上午6:00 to 2026年11月9日下午2:30
Moodie southbound reduced to 1 lane at 417 overpass due to construction, from November 4th to 9th between 6:00 and 2:30pm.
市政府標示此項會影響公共交通。
about 0 m from the route
City record updated 2026年11月2日下午1:12.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

來源：渥太華市交通事件（道路施工和封閉）。內含根據開放政府授權（Open Government Licence，City of Ottawa）提供的資訊。市政府表示，此清單已盡力提供，但可能不完整。渥太華市交通地圖 ↗

此路線的取消班次

這些詞的意思 →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

過去四週內,這條路線沒有計入的取消班次。我們無法核實的通知會列在下方。

未到(沒看到巴士,也沒有通知),過去 7 天:在我們能查核的班次中,沒有任何一班。

開啟附日期的預測分析

結論

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.8 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

Only 95% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 4 min more running time on 10 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 2 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: not enough data
07:00: 60.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 33 predictions, typically 3.8 min late
08:00: 91.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 34 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
09:00: not enough data
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: not enough data
16:00: not enough data
17:00: not enough data
18:00: not enough data
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	時間	已測量	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	07:00	3.8 min late	More running time
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	95%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 07:00: Measured arrivals 33; Hours affected 1; Spread 5.6 min; Median delay 3.8 min; Suggested running time change 3.8 min
Coverage gap · All measured hours: 目標 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 95%; 服務日 5; Trips with a matching position 19; 時刻表班次 20

開啟歷史紀錄、可靠度與路線分析

路線檢查

How route 158 has been running

這是我們所知內容的簡短摘要。如果無法回答某個問題，我們會說明。

重點結論

符合資格的預測還不夠多，暫時無法公布路線比較。

78 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 181 predictions checked

預測樣本數: 仍在累積資料

Based on 181 eligible provider predictions over 18 measured days, from 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月4日.

Updated 2026年11月5日下午4:32

預測在哪些地點和時間多次出現差異？

這些是預測與班表之間反覆出現的差異，並非獨立測得的服務失誤。它們使用與上方結果相同的合格預測，但按站點而非時段分組，因此兩份清單不一定逐行相符。

17時–18時: 46 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (22 predictions over 11 days).
7時–8時: 39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (33 predictions over 11 days).

目前沒有與此路線相符的官方通知。

各站的預測差異

我們目前還沒有足夠的各路線各站點歷史資料,無法指出經常出問題的站點。乘客回報只作為線索,不作為證明。

查看每個班次和日期

打開一個時段,即可查看每個服務日、預定班次、資料空檔、已觀察到的公開車輛編號,以及此摘要背後的確切數字。

乘客想知道的事

現在有任何班次被取消嗎?: 未來 4 小時內沒有任何班次出發檢查未來 4 小時內從路線端點出發的行程。這不是歷史取消率。
檢查資料缺口後，可能的未到班次？: 1 of 20 checked trips need a closer look1 of 20 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 20 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
服務提供者的預測與時刻表有何不同?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 8.2 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)78 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
營運商的預測意味著要等多久？: 目前沒有任何路線層級的結果達到證據門檻。這不代表沒有出現服務空檔。

時刻表變更檢查

已發布的時刻表：變更前與變更後

此頁面比較目前保留的官方時刻表與先前保留的版本。時刻表變更只說明原本的計劃,不能證明某個班次已經行駛。

Current published schedule began 2026年10月30日

從每份已發布時刻表中選出的服務日

我們會檢查新時刻表開始後的第一個星期一，以及一週前的星期一。所有數字都來自下列保留的官方 GTFS 版本。

所選日期中，至少有一個日期有新增或取消的特定日期服務。請將此視為假日或特別服務的情況，而不是平日一般的服務增加。

變更前

已核對的服務日期: 2026年10月26日

時刻表班次: 4
不同的預定停靠站數量: 6
已公布的不同路線: 2
已公布的服務時段: 07:41–17:14

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

資料串流指紋: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

新時刻表

已核對的服務日期: 2026年11月2日

時刻表班次: 4
不同的預定停靠站數量: 6
已公布的不同路線: 2
已公布的服務時段: 07:41–17:14

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

資料串流指紋: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

變更後，服務有改善嗎？

我們會比較變更前後各 14 天已確認的到站紀錄。只有在變更前後兩段時間都至少有 7 個服務日和 200 次到站紀錄時，我們才會公布比較結果。

Still collecting: before has 100 arrivals over 10 days; after has 41 arrivals over 4 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

校驗碼可讓任何人核對，是哪一份留存的時刻表產生這些數量。數量有變動，並不能說明原因、取消、營運單位的決定或對乘客的影響。

如何評估這條路線: 每站停靠的一般路線

我們把每個預定到達班次的最後一筆合資格業者預測，與官方時刻表比較。這些不是獨立量測的到達時間。結果至少需要 200 筆合資格預測。這裡採用乘客角度的目標：誤差在 5 分鐘內。

這些數據無法證明的事

公開資料來源沒有提供可靠的乘客人數，也沒有提供漏載乘客的事件。缺少車輛位置，本身並不能證明班次取消、未出車、中途折返或其原因。

查看定義、門檻和數據順序

官方即時資料：明確的取消班次、跳過的站點及目前有效的通知。
配對觀測資料:與官方時刻表相連的車輛位置和已確定的預測。
官方時刻表:原本的計畫,與實際觀察到的情況分開顯示。
乘客和營運單位的回報:這些是關於路線、時間和地點的線索,值得調查,但本身不是數字證明。

暫定結果，已公布的數據

預測與時刻表相比如何?

每個小時都會把某班預定到站的最後一次合格業者預測與時刻表比較。「5 分鐘內」是指預測與時刻表的差距，不是實際量到的到站時間，也不能證明巴士有行駛。

佐證期間: 2026年10月7日 to 2026年11月4日

與時刻表相差 5 分鐘內: 77.9%
已查核的合格預測: 181
有資料的平日: 18
第95百分位預測延誤: 8.2 min late

Patterns by hour (4)

Patterns by hour (4)
小時	準點	中位數	第 95 百分位	證據
07:00	60.6%	3.8 min late	9.4 min late	33 · 11 days
08:00	91.2%	1.1 min late	6.2 min late	34 · 11 days
16:00	72.7%	1.8 min late	9.2 min late	22 · 11 days
17:00	54.5%	4.2 min late	11.2 min late	22 · 11 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

有排定班次的巴士，但沒有即時觀察記錄

19 / 20 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (95.0%).

08:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
07:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
16:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
17:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%

這不是已確認的未發車。 找不到車輛位置，可能是班次取消或漏班，也可能是班次編號未指派，或是營運單位的資料來源出現缺口。Otranspo 公布這項缺口，因為這對乘客很重要，同時也會如實處理，不作過度推論。

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. 來源與限制.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 4 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 4 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

07:41– 07:50
Trip 17830040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:35 a.m. EST / 7:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:26– 08:35
Trip 30540040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:25 a.m. EST / 8:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:05– 16:14
Trip 29424040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:28 p.m. EST / 4:17 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
17:05– 17:14
Trip 7984040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:04 p.m. EST / 5:17 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.