Rideau-Jock is the least reliable ward, at 60%. 4 wards sit below 70%.

衡量的内容

The share of buses that reached a stop on time. On time here means from one minute early to five minutes late at timing points, the OC Transpo window. A by-hour table may also show the share within five minutes of the times riders see. That is a different rule, named where it appears and explained there. Cancelled trips and trips that never came count as misses.

• 已测量We saw it happen.
• 预计Modelled, shown with a range.
• ExplainedHow it is worked out, in words.

数据来源

• ExplainedOC Transpo and STO live bus positions
• Explained已发布的时刻表，注明日期
• ExplainedTrip outcomes: ran, cancelled, did not come

我们如何计算

1. We find when each bus actually reached each timing point, from where it was on the map.
2. We compare that with the timetable and mark the visit on time, early or late.
3. Trips that were cancelled or never came count as misses. Visits we saw too thinly to judge are left out, not guessed.
4. The on-time share is the judged visits that were on time, divided by all judged visits plus the misses.

Worked example

我们有多大把握

This is measured, not modelled. It gets less certain when we saw few visits, and the page says how many were judged.

Limits, and what would change it

• It is a share of visits, not of riders: a full peak bus and an empty one count the same.
• Where buses were too far apart in our position data, we say so rather than guess.
• Early counts as a miss because a rider who arrives on time can find the bus already gone. The rider rule on a by-hour table treats early and late alike.