The share of selected final provider predictions no more than five minutes early or late relative to schedule; arrivals are not independently measured.

Definition

The share of selected final provider predictions no more than five minutes early or late relative to schedule; arrivals are not independently measured.

Formula

100 × COUNT(|settled prediction delay seconds| ≤ 300) ÷ COUNT(settled final provider predictions), rounded to one decimal place.

Units

percent of selected final feed predictions

Population

One last eligible provider prediction per scheduled trip, stop and Toronto calendar date; no independently measured arrival.

Measurement window

Route summaries: rolling 30 days. Route-hour evidence: recent 14-day scan.

ᐃᓚᐅᔪᑦ

Matched published predictions only. Numerator and denominator describe selected final feed predictions, not measured arrivals or all scheduled or operated trips.

Publication eligibility

Regular comparable bus routes; a route-hour needs at least 100 observations across at least three service days. Rail and purpose-specific routes are excluded from ordinary rankings.

ᐊᑐᕐᕕᖓ

Route summaries use a rolling 30-day window. Recurring route-hour evidence uses the recent 14-day scan and is published only with at least 100 observations over at least three service days.

What this number can support

Schedule difference in final eligible feed predictions, not independently measured punctuality. It is not OC Transpo’s 99.5% service-delivery target, a cancellation rate, or proof that every scheduled trip ran.

Sources and identifiers

• Method · Settled provider-prediction reliability methodlast-prediction-within-ten-minutes-v1
• Current API · Current network reliability public APIreliability-evidence

Implementation status

Source candidate

Implemented in this source candidate.

Public production

The corrected metric version is implemented in source; public production deployment and verification remain unrecorded.

Current evidence

• network-reliability:current

Change history