Ward 9 · Ottawa · Councillor: Sean Devine

Knoxdale-Merivale

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Knoxdale-Merivale: 80.4% of predictions within five minutes.

Partial data · 2 days partly captured

Within five minutes: 80.4%
Stops in the ward: 345
Routes serving it: 34
Cancelled trips: Not available yet; Not counted per ward yet

Where it is slowest

80% and up 11
60 to 80% 6
Under 60% 0
Too little data 17

Routes serving the ward, by their share of predictions within five minutes. Each route result covers the whole route.

Routes in this ward

Routes in this ward, least reliable first
Route	Within 5 min	Cancelled	Crowding
53	65.8%	Not published	Not published
81	70.6%	Not published	Not published
70	71.6%	Not published	Not published
80	74.2%	Not published	Not published
111	75.5%	Not published	Not published
73	75.8%	Not published	Not published
117	81.5%	Not published	Not published
86	82.0%	Not published	Not published

Cancellations and crowding are not published per route yet. 17 routes with too little data or a different service purpose are left out.

All routes and their sources

One-page brief

A printable summary of this ward for council and community meetings, with the same numbers, the method in plain words and dated sources.

Open the brief Compare with another ward

What can be verified in Knoxdale-Merivale?

Arrival predictions, the imported timetable and train notices. Each is shown with its own source.

Provider prediction agreement

80.4%

of eligible predictions within five minutes of schedule

How this compares: Rank 7 of 22 · median 78.4%

Service, per the imported timetable

Scheduled trips at ward stops: Not available yet
Routes: 34
Train lines: 0

Current service inside this boundary

Open the live map

The live buses inside this boundary are on the Map tab.

Prediction measure, timetable inventory and methods

Service delivery · evidence state

Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Cancellations at stops in this ward

Not publishable

No zero or missed trip is inferred when exact stop calls cannot be published.

Predictions at stops inside the ward

80.4% within five minutes of the timetable across 371,617 eligible final provider predictions and 20 weekdays. These are not verified physical arrivals.

Predictions do not prove physical arrival.

Routes to inspect

Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

If available, these are route-wide vehicle-position matches for routes serving the ward. They do not locate a missed trip inside this ward or prove a cancellation. Each comparison uses scheduled trips for that same route and window.

117
43 of 45 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle position
Inspect days
53
619 of 635 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle position
Inspect days
86
607 of 619 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle position
Inspect days

Scheduled calls, sources and limits

34 routes · 345 stops. Timetable inventory, not trips delivered.

Cancellations at stops in this ward

Local count cannot be published

Exact stop-call evidence could not be read for Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026. No zero is assumed.

Dates, source versions and limits

Method: retained-pre-service-exact-trip-stop-call-v1. Cancellation-feed completeness and position coverage are unverified.

The retained timetables were fetched, imported and first activated before the service day. The archive does not prove they remained the active timetables throughout that period. Comparisons between places remain unavailable.

Verdict

What would fix transit here

Worked out from the routes that serve this ward. Each item names the route, when it happens, and what would change it.

11 of 17 show repeated provider predictions later than the timetable, consistent with a possible scheduled running-time shortfall. A scheduler should test that scenario against operations; labour, fleet, recovery and transfer impacts are not established here.

Worst here: route 53, predictions later than timetable 14:00 to 19:00, 4.9 min late.

Best here: route 173, predictions consistently close to timetable, 96%.

17 of 17 routes here had something measurable to report.

Arrivals within five minutes, by hour of day, across the 17 routes graded here, last 14 days

00:00: 91.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 10,819 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
01:00: 88.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 3,532 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
02:00: 81.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,626 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
03:00: 90% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,726 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
04:00: 93% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 4,928 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
05:00: 91.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 16,453 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
06:00: 89.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 37,467 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
07:00: 83.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 50,409 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
08:00: 75.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 50,200 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
09:00: 81.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 47,198 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
10:00: 83.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 44,188 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
11:00: 82% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 44,559 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
12:00: 81.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 44,707 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
13:00: 80.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 44,236 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
14:00: 79.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 46,352 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
15:00: 70.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 48,960 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
16:00: 67.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 55,232 predictions, typically 2.9 min late
17:00: 67.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 54,677 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
18:00: 70.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 49,840 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
19:00: 79.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 41,301 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
20:00: 82.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 38,208 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
21:00: 82.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 36,135 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
22:00: 83.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 28,756 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
23:00: 88.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 19,943 predictions, typically 1 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable53 70 81 80 74 73 111 82 86 117 18711 routes	14:00 to 19:00 … 14:00	4.9 min late … 8.6 min late	More running time
StrengthPredictions consistently close to timetable1731 routes	04:00 to 00:00	96%	Keep what works
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match53 70 74 86 111 82 73 112 117 18710 routes	15:00 … 08:00	45% … 36%	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemWide prediction spread80 1172 routes	04:00 · 15:00	33 min swing · 47.8 min swing	Overnight operations
StrengthObserved-position lower bound75 173 189 73 116 1876 routes	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works
CaveatCoverage gap53 86 70 74 88 111 80 81 112 82 11711 routes	All measured hours	98% … 96%	More observation, not a service change

How KNOXDALE-MERIVALE is doing

These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.

Measured over 322 route-hours. 4 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.

Scheduling

Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.

Who can fix it: A service planner
What it costs: Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.

Predictions close to the timetable

87.6%

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.

Route-hours with repeated late predictions

40of 322

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.

Route-hours with early predictions

0of 322

Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.

Typical predicted delay

3.6min

The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.

Operations

Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.

Who can fix it: Operations, and often the road itself
What it costs: Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.

Prediction gap below twenty minutes

99.4%

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.

Route-hours with wide prediction gaps

2of 322

Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.

Typical prediction gap

40.4min

The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.

Service, per the imported timetable

Scheduled transit, provider prediction agreement with the timetable, and public services in this ward.

34
Routes: 345
Stops: 5
Washrooms: 3
Water locations

Provider-prediction measure80.4%provider prediction within five minutes of the timetable

Provider prediction agreement

80.4% of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable. 298,660 of 371,617 settled trip-stop predictions at stops inside this ward matched that range across 20 weekdays with feed evidence, from Oct 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. These are provider predictions, not independently observed arrivals.

2 partial-capture days not counted.

Predictions within five minutes: 298,660
Eligible trip-stop predictions: 371,617
Observed days: 20 weekdays

How this compares

Ranked 7 of 22 measured wards. 2 points above the city median of 78.4%.

Highest: ward 22 at 85.1%. Lowest: ward 21 at 60.3%.

Only wards whose evidence meets the publication threshold are ranked. Same window and same method for each.

Which routes need closer review

17 of the 34 routes serving this ward have enough provider-prediction evidence to compare. Lowest timetable agreement first.

53Open route
65.8%Predictions within five minutes
132,043 eligible predictions across the whole route
81Open route
70.6%Predictions within five minutes
146,779 eligible predictions across the whole route
70Open route
71.6%Predictions within five minutes
150,278 eligible predictions across the whole route
80Open route
74.2%Predictions within five minutes
181,776 eligible predictions across the whole route
111Open route
75.5%Predictions within five minutes
114,122 eligible predictions across the whole route
73Open route
75.8%Predictions within five minutes
39,126 eligible predictions across the whole route
117Open route
81.5%Predictions within five minutes
6,536 eligible predictions across the whole route
86Open route
82.0%Predictions within five minutes
78,854 eligible predictions across the whole route
74Open route
83.1%Predictions within five minutes
83,010 eligible predictions across the whole route
88Open route
83.2%Predictions within five minutes
164,119 eligible predictions across the whole route

17 more routes here are not ranked: school, express, shopper or event service, whose schedule result does not compare the same way.

Vehicle visibility to investigate

The current summary uses seven days. For every route, you can also open yesterday, the last 7 days, or the last 30 days and inspect the day, scheduled trip, excluded feed gaps, and every observed public vehicle ID. An absence does not prove a vehicle fault or operator decision.

Vehicle visibility to investigate
Route	Scheduled trips	With a position	Without a matched position	Coverage	History
117	45	43	2	95.6%	Day 7 30
53	635	619	16	97.5%	Day 7 30
86	619	607	12	98.1%	Day 7 30
70	623	614	9	98.6%	Day 7 30
74	712	703	9	98.7%	Day 7 30
88	1,043	1,034	9	99.1%	Day 7 30
81	468	464	4	99.1%	Day 7 30
111	868	861	7	99.2%	Day 7 30
82	486	483	3	99.4%	Day 7 30
112	482	479	3	99.4%	Day 7 30
80	772	768	4	99.5%	Day 7 30
189	429	427	2	99.5%	Day 7 30
75	1,283	1,278	5	99.6%	Day 7 30
73	335	334	1	99.7%	Day 7 30
116	287	286	1	99.7%	Day 7 30
173	477	476	1	99.8%	Day 7 30
275	70	70	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
277	70	70	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
187	50	50	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
279	35	35	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
680	35	35	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
688	25	25	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
646	20	20	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
690	20	20	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
689	20	20	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
676	20	20	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
691	15	15	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
687	10	10	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
617	10	10	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
670	10	10	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
610	10	10	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
582	8	8	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
686	5	5	0	100.0%	Day 7 30
305	2	2	0	100.0%	Day 7 30

Routes serving the ward

34 scheduled routes

Bus routes · 34

Train lines · 0

No train line has a stop in this ward in the imported schedule.

Map & current service

Current service inside this boundary

Scheduled lines, stops, and observed buses share one map. Select a route or vehicle for details.

Evidence & sources

Imported municipal polygon · 36 boundary vertices · City of Ottawa ward boundaries · imported Aug 4, 2026

Route

━ 34 bus routes● 345 stops

Loading live feed

Public amenity record for this ward

Public washrooms and drinking water

Choose a category to check which location details are available.

Public washrooms (City data) 5

The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.

Drinking water (City data) 3

The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.

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Evidence included with the draft

Canonical Otranspo evidence link: https://otranspo.ca/en/city/wards/9
Sources and time: Sources and time: open the linked report for its source records and published or imported timestamps.
Limitations: Limitations: Otranspo is independent and may show unknown, suppressed, delayed, or corrected values. Confirm urgent or current service matters with the official agency.

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Rider evidence

Community reports

Signals below are moderated community aggregates, not official operator notices or reliability scores.

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Report a specific problem

Emergency: call 9-1-1. Check official OC Transpo or STO notices before travelling.

Civic evidence brief

The identity, boundary, contacts, service scope and evidence dates behind this ward report, kept together so the page can be cited without losing its qualifications.

Municipality: City of Ottawa, Ontario
Geographic unit: Official City of Ottawa municipal ward 9: KNOXDALE-MERIVALE
Boundary and vintage: City ward layer · effective not published · imported August 4, 2026
Official civic contacts: Sean Devine · Councillor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
Mark Sutcliffe · Mayor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
Relevant scheduled service: 34 public route records with a stop inside this boundary · operators: OC Transpo
Transit evidence vintage: Timetable import: not published · reliability window: Oct 3, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

A ward boundary, route inventory, destination list, population count or employment count supplies civic context. None of those values alone measures passenger demand, household trip effects, transfers or daily attendance.

Ottawa wards are municipal wards. They are not Gatineau electoral districts, and results from the two boundary systems are not interchangeable.

Evidence behind this pageOpen the definition, method, sources, dates, coverage, and known limits.

What is being shown

A ward-level inventory of scheduled transit, public washrooms, drinking-water locations, and eligible final OC Transpo provider predictions at stops inside the ward.

How it was produced

Current imported records are assigned by point-in-polygon to the sourced ward boundary. Reliability uses one eligible final provider prediction per trip, stop, and service date in the latest 28 completed service days. Within five minutes is measured against the timetable, not a physical arrival. Publication requires 20 weekdays with prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions.

Imported: August 4, 2026 at 10:43 a.m.
Computed or assembled: November 4, 2026 at 1:17 p.m.
Sample: 371,617 eligible settled provider predictions across 20 weekdays with prediction evidence support the reliability result.
Method or data version: ward-counts-v1 + ward-stop-settled-arrivals-purpose-aware-v3
Source checksum: ward-reliability:a6687ba4b1e0ea58539b0f701393308c2e04235e26a56f10ff3662073dcf060b

Sources

Limits to keep in mind

Counts describe the published inventory inside the boundary, not service quality or access from every address.
Reliability covers final OC Transpo provider predictions at geographically assigned stops; physical arrivals are not independently measured. Rail and trips without eligible prediction evidence are not represented.
An unavailable count remains unavailable. It is not changed to zero.

Suggest a factual correction

How we measure this

For each trip, stop and service date at stops inside the ward, we keep the last eligible OC Transpo prediction and compare it with the timetable. It counts as within five minutes when the two are no more than five minutes apart. This is not a physical arrival.

The window is the latest 28 completed service days. A result is published only with 20 weekdays of prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions. Route results cover each whole route, not only the part inside the ward.

Read the full method

Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – City of Ottawa.