No 49 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 77.5% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (16,440 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

Mìkana 49: Elmvale ⇄ Hurdman

Endaso 30 biinish 120 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 5 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 6.

Trips needing investigation

2 of 214 trips with a usable feed window (0.9%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

212 with position · 2 to investigate · 0 excluded · 214 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 4:45 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 8 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 212 / 214 (99.1%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 3:48 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

77.5%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 16,440
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: Oct 5, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0696% · 420 predictions · 10 days
0781% · 420 predictions · 10 days
0870% · 1,006 predictions · 12 days
0979% · 409 predictions · 14 days
1096% · 567 predictions · 14 days
1294% · 574 predictions · 14 days
1489% · 720 predictions · 14 days
1578% · 887 predictions · 14 days
1669% · 964 predictions · 14 days
1773% · 1,015 predictions · 14 days
1858% · 785 predictions · 12 days
1988% · 393 predictions · 10 days
2087% · 31 predictions · 10 days
2285% · 200 predictions · 10 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

14 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 25 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (4,609 pairs checked at stops).

0% of pairs (0) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Giizhigad diba'iganan	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	2,026	0% (0)	0% (0)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	315	0% (0)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	2,076	0% (0)	0% (0)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	192	0% (0)	0% (0)

Aaniin ezhi-dibaabandamang →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: ELMVALE A to PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY, 25.3 km/h actual against 30.8 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
Wendjibàyan	Ijayan	Aaniin epiichi-waasaag	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
ELMVALE A	PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY	2.2 km	30.8 km/h	25.3 km/h	376	30%
HURDMAN D	PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY	4.4 km	35.6 km/h	26.6 km/h	340	30%

Bejiw madjàwin: 1.5 apì nawach kinwesh.

Aaniin ezhi-dibaabandamang →

Oodena miikana-anokiiwin besho o'ow miikana

Mikana anokiiwinan miinawaa mikanan gaa-gibaakwa'igaadegin, Ottawa oodena gaa-wiindamaaged. Besho ayaamagadoon owe mikana. Besho, gaawiin dash izhi-gikendaagwasinoon gichi-odaabaan bakaan izhaad. Ganawaabandan gichi-odaabaan wiindamaagewinan.

Odena mikana-anokiwin ozhibiigan kawin gashkitòsinon kidji-agindjigàdeg noongom.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

Wenji-ayaamagak: Ottawa oodena miikanaang wiindamaagewinan (miikanaang anokiiwin miinawaa gibaakwa'igaadeg miikanan). Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. Ottawa oodena ikido: gaawiin gakina ayaasinoon owe mazina'igan. Odaawaa oodena miikanaa-mazina'igan ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

4 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 9 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 5 p.m. (2), 4 p.m. (1), 6 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Mon, Nov 2, scheduled 18:31
Fri, Oct 23, scheduled 16:28
Thu, Oct 22, scheduled 17:02
Fri, Oct 9, scheduled 17:02

OC Transpo gives no reason for single trips, so none is shown.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 214 trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Ishkwaa-inendamowin

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.3 to 4.4 min later than the timetable in 4 hours of the day.

18:00 has 58% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 83% the rest of the day.

Only 99% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 3 to 4 min more running time on 144 trips. The schedule-block model estimates 4 additional buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 16 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 96% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 420 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
07:00: 81% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 420 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
08:00: 70.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,006 predictions, typically 3.7 min late
09:00: 78.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 409 predictions, typically 2.9 min late
10:00: 95.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 567 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
11:00: not enough data
12:00: 94.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 574 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
13:00: not enough data
14:00: 89.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 720 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
15:00: 77.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 887 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
16:00: 68.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 964 predictions, typically 3.6 min late
17:00: 73.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,015 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
18:00: 57.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 785 predictions, typically 4.4 min late
19:00: 88% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 393 predictions, typically 2.3 min late
20:00: 87.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 31 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
21:00: not enough data
22:00: 84.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 200 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Aaniin apii	Tibàdjigade	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	08:00 · 16:00 · 18:00 · 22:00	3.7 min late … 3.3 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	18:00	58%	Operations, not the timetable
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	99%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 08:00: Measured arrivals 1,006; Hours affected 1; Spread 9.5 min; Median delay 3.7 min; Suggested running time change 3.7 min
Predictions later than timetable · 16:00: Measured arrivals 964; Hours affected 1; Spread 9.6 min; Median delay 3.6 min; Suggested running time change 3.6 min
Predictions later than timetable · 18:00: Measured arrivals 785; Hours affected 1; Spread 6.1 min; Median delay 4.4 min; Suggested running time change 4.4 min
Predictions later than timetable · 22:00: Measured arrivals 200; Hours affected 1; Spread 2.2 min; Median delay 3.3 min; Suggested running time change 3.3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 18:00: Dibaa'igan 18:00; Weweni apii 57.6%; Measured arrivals 785; Shortfall 25.2 pts; Route median on time 82.8%
Coverage gap · All measured hours: Ijitchigewin 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.1%; Anokii-giizhigadoon 5; Trips with a matching position 212; Maajaawinan ozhibii'igaadegin 214

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 49 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Ishkwàdj ikidowin

Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.

78 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 16,440 predictions checked

Aaniin minik gikendaasowinan: Larger sample

Based on 16,440 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 2:41 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

18–19: 42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (785 predictions over 12 days).
16–17: 32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (964 predictions over 14 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

PLEASANT PARK / NORWAY
49 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (402 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
PLEASANT PARK / LYNDA
47 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (402 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
PLEASANT PARK / AD. 504
45 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (402 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
PLEASANT PARK / AD. 452
44 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (402 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Pàkinan pejig dibaigan ji-wàbandaman endaso-gìzhigad, odàbànag, àpì kàwin gegò gì-ayàsinog, odàbàn ishinikàzowinan, gaye kakina àjindàsowinan.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 8Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 2 of 214 checked trips need a closer look2 of 214 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 214 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
Àniin gà-ikidong, gaye àniin dibaigan mazina'igan ikido?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 11.3 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)78 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Ganawaabandan aanjichigewin

Apii-mazina'igan: jibwaa miinawaa ishkwaa

Ow ozhibiigan ijinàgwad noongom, kaye ijinàgwad kayàsh. Ow ozhibiigan ikido kà-inendjigàdeg. Kawin ondji-kikendàgwasinon kidji-ki-majàd odàbàn.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Giizhigad gaa-onaabanjigaadeg endaso-mazina'iganing

Ningii-ganawaabandaamin nitam Ishkwaa-anami'e-giizhigad ishkwaa oshki-mazina'igan gii-maajitaamagak, miinawaa Ishkwaa-anami'e-giizhigad bezhig anami'e-giizhigad jibwaa. Gakina agindaasowinan onjimagadoon GTFS mazina'iganan gaa-ganawendamang, ezhinikaadegin dabazhish.

Bezhig gemaa nawaj giizhigad gaa-onaabanjigeyan, bakaan izhi-bimiwizhiwewag odaabaanag. Ganabaj anami'e-giizhigad gemaa wiikonge-giizhigad. Gaawiin iwe apane izhiwebasinoon.

Jibwà

Giizhigad gaa-andawaabanjigaadeg: October 26, 2026

Maajaawinan ozhibii'igaadegin: 35
Nibawin kà-ozhibiigàdegin: 43
Miikanan gaa-ozhibii'igaadegin: 2
Àpi odàbànag pimosewaad, ozhibii'igaade: 06:10–22:33

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Ozhibii'igan ezhinaagwak: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

Oshki mazina'igan

Giizhigad gaa-andawaabanjigaadeg: November 2, 2026

Maajaawinan ozhibii'igaadegin: 35
Nibawin kà-ozhibiigàdegin: 43
Miikanan gaa-ozhibii'igaadegin: 2
Àpi odàbànag pimosewaad, ozhibii'igaade: 06:10–22:33

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Ozhibii'igan ezhinaagwak: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Nawaj na gii-mino-izhiwebad gaa-ishkwaa-aanjichigaadeg?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 8,709 arrivals over 14 days; after has 2,948 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

Waabandan aaniin ezhi-inaabadak gaye aaniin ezhi-agindaasong

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 5, 2026 to November 2, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 77.5%
Eligible predictions checked: 16,440
Weekdays with data: 19
95th-percentile predicted delay: 11.3 min late

Patterns by hour (16)

Patterns by hour (16)
Dibaa'igan	Weweni apii	Median	95th percentile	Gikendaasowinan
06:00	96.0%	1.2 min late	4.5 min late	420 · 10 days
07:00	81.0%	2.8 min late	7.2 min late	420 · 10 days
08:00	70.4%	3.7 min late	13.2 min late	1,006 · 12 days
09:00	78.5%	2.9 min late	12.6 min late	409 · 14 days
10:00	95.9%	1.5 min late	4.6 min late	567 · 14 days
11:00	100.0%	0.2 min early	1.1 min late	164 · 4 days
12:00	94.3%	1.9 min late	5.4 min late	574 · 14 days
13:00	86.6%	0.9 min late	12.6 min late	164 · 4 days
14:00	89.3%	1.8 min late	5.8 min late	720 · 14 days
15:00	77.5%	2.5 min late	9.4 min late	887 · 14 days
16:00	68.5%	3.6 min late	13.2 min late	964 · 14 days
17:00	73.1%	2.6 min late	10.5 min late	1,015 · 14 days
18:00	57.6%	4.4 min late	10.5 min late	785 · 12 days
19:00	88.0%	2.3 min late	6.6 min late	393 · 10 days
20:00	87.1%	2.2 min late	5.5 min late	31 · 10 days
22:00	84.5%	3.3 min late	5.5 min late	200 · 10 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Bus scheduled, gaawiin dash gii-waabandanziimin realtime

212 / 214 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (99.1%).

18:001 / 17 trips without a position94.1%
17:001 / 24 trips without a position95.8%
06:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 26 trips without a position100.0%
09:000 / 9 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 35 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 35 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

06:10– 06:24
Trip 36085030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:58 a.m. EST / 6:24 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:40– 06:54
Trip 5544030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:31 a.m. EST / 6:58 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:10– 07:24
Trip 20693030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:11 a.m. EST / 7:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:40– 07:56
Trip 9409030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:56 a.m. EST / 8:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:00– 08:16
Trip 14137030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:02 a.m. EST / 8:22 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:02– 08:16
Trip 32423030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:15 a.m. EST / 8:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:21– 08:37
Trip 31859030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:21 a.m. EST / 8:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:30– 08:44
Trip 1544030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:38 a.m. EST / 9:17 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:51– 09:06
Trip 31757030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:06 a.m. EST / 9:09 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:02– 09:16
Trip 9562030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:13 a.m. EST / 9:27 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:02– 10:16
Trip 27657030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:03 a.m. EST / 10:16 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:24– 10:38
Trip 5292030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:24 a.m. EST / 10:41 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

Draft

This translation is a draft.

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Read this page in English

This page is a machine draft in Algonquin (Anishinaabemowin), the language of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en algonquin (anishinaabemowin), la langue de la Nation algonquine anishinabe. Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).