- ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓂᖅ
- ᖃᓄᖅ ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᖑᓂᖏᑦ
- How late the worst 5 in 100 settled predictions were
Sort selected final predicted delays from least to greatest. This is the delay where about 5 predictions in 100 were equally late or later in the published route window.
- Definition
- Sort selected final predicted delays from least to greatest. This is the delay where about 5 predictions in 100 were equally late or later in the published route window.
- Formula
- PERCENTILE_DISC(0.95) ordered by settled delay seconds.
- Units
- seconds, displayed in minutes
- Population
- The same selected final provider predictions used by the on-time percentage.
- Measurement window
- Rolling 30-day route-health window.
- ᐃᓚᐅᔪᑦ
- Matched published predictions only; the discrete percentile selects a final predicted delay value.
- Publication eligibility
- Regular comparable bus routes with publishable final provider-prediction evidence; merged route variants with incompatible distributions withhold this percentile.
- ᐊᑐᕐᕕᖓ
- Each route’s settled final provider predictions in the rolling 30-day route-health window.
- What this number can support
- An upper-tail final-prediction schedule difference: about five selected predictions in one hundred were this late or later. This is not an independently measured arrival.
- Sources and identifiers
- Method · Settled provider-prediction reliability method
last-prediction-within-ten-minutes-v1 - Current API · Current network reliability public API
reliability-evidence
- Method · Settled provider-prediction reliability method
Implementation status
- Source candidate
- Implemented in this source candidate.
- Public production
- The corrected metric version is implemented in source; public production deployment and verification remain unrecorded.
Read the status before citing this number.
The final provider-prediction calculation is implemented in this source candidate. Public production verification for this corrected version is still not recorded.
Exclusions
Predictions more than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival are excluded, and delays outside ±90 minutes are removed as timetable-wrap outliers.
OC Transpo rail is excluded because the operator does not publish realtime rail observations in the feed used by this method.
Uncertainty and interpretation
The result describes matched published predictions, not every operated trip. Feed gaps and trip-matching limits can reduce coverage.
Current network evidence is recomputed and is not stored here as an immutable historical snapshot.
Current evidence
Change history
No registered material change is recorded for this metric version.