No 226 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Route 226: Chapel Hill ⇄ Blair

Every 15 to 18 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 1 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 1.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 120 trips with a usable feed window (0.8%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

119 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 120 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 1:44 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 1 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 119 / 120 (99.2%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 12:49 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

This service purpose needs a different method. A general percentage could give a misleading picture.

Predictions in the source: 12,668
Weekdays with evidence: 18
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

The general hourly comparison is not suitable for this service purpose. Source records remain available.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 25 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

2% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 153 of 9,641 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

2% of pairs (203) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	4,811	2% (98)	1% (58)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	105	1% (1)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	3,701	1% (45)	0% (1)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	1,024	1% (9)	14% (144)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: CHAPEL HILL A to RENAUD / GLENLIVET, 14.2 km/h actual against 18.8 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
CHAPEL HILL A	RENAUD / GLENLIVET	1.1 km	18.8 km/h	14.2 km/h	107	37%
INNES / RONDEL	RENAUD / COMPASS	4.9 km	19.5 km/h	20.1 km/h	111	0%
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	INNES / RONDEL	3.4 km	25.7 km/h	20.4 km/h	111	10%
BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	ST JOSEPH / BEARBROOK	1.7 km	15.2 km/h	23.6 km/h	198	5%
RENAUD / GLENLIVET	EASTPARK / INNES	5.1 km	38.6 km/h	26.3 km/h	110	59%
EASTPARK / INNES	BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	3.4 km	49.5 km/h	27.1 km/h	194	72%
BLAIR A	BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH	3.7 km	44.3 km/h	28 km/h	176	49%
BEARBROOK / ST JOSEPH	BEARBROOK / WESTPARK	1.6 km	12 km/h	35.8 km/h	173	1%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 120 trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 5.1 min later than the timetable in 5 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 3.6 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 4.7 min along the route.

Wide prediction spread 18:00: the 95th percentile is 32.1 min later than the median.

07:00 has 35% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 60% the rest of the day.

Only 99% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 5 min more running time on 130 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 9 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 54.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 350 predictions, typically 4.6 min late
06:00: 60.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,230 predictions, typically 3.9 min late
07:00: 34.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,231 predictions, typically 6.8 min late
08:00: 49.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,174 predictions, typically 5.1 min late
09:00: 41.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 77 predictions, typically 5.7 min late
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 89.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 737 predictions, typically 0.1 min early
16:00: 84.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,191 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
17:00: 87.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,078 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
18:00: 62.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 704 predictions, typically 0.5 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data
prediction spread of 20 min or more between the 95th percentile and median

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	05:00 to 10:00	5.1 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	07:00	35%	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemWide prediction spread	18:00	32.1 min swing	Operations, not the timetable
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	99%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 05:00 to 10:00: Measured arrivals 4,062; Hours affected 5; Spread 7.9 min; Median delay 5.1 min; Suggested running time change 5.1 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 07:00: Hour 07:00; On time 34.9%; Measured arrivals 1,231; Shortfall 25.3 pts; Route median on time 60.2%
Wide prediction spread · 18:00: Measured arrivals 704; Hours affected 1; Spread 32.1 min; Median delay 0.5 min; Suggested running time change 0.5 min
Coverage gap · All measured hours: Target 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.2%; Service days 5; Trips with a matching position 119; Scheduled trips 120

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 226 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

We need to know where this express route picks people up before we can rate it.

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 12,668 eligible provider predictions over 18 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 5, 2026, 1:32 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

Problem times are not ranked because this service needs a purpose-specific test.

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

We do not yet have enough route-by-stop history to name a recurring problem stop. Rider reports are used as leads, not proof.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 1Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 1 of 120 checked trips need a closer look1 of 120 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 120 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: Not enough evidence yet
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: October 26, 2026

Scheduled trips: 24
Distinct scheduled stops: 71
Distinct published paths: 4
Published service span: 5:39 a.m.–6:41 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Feed fingerprint: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

New schedule

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 24
Distinct scheduled stops: 71
Distinct published paths: 4
Published service span: 5:39 a.m.–6:41 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Feed fingerprint: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Ordinary on-time scoring does not fit this route’s service purpose. The schedule counts remain visible, but the result waits for the purpose-specific evidence described below.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Express / commuter route

Inbound performance must be checked at pickup points. Early outbound running after pickups are finished is not treated like early service on a regular route.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

Data behind this result

An ordinary on-time grade is not appropriate for this service without checking its purpose. The route check above explains the pickup, community-service or event evidence needed. You can still inspect the recorded trips and data gaps below.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Eligible predictions checked: 12,668
Weekdays with data: 18

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

119 / 120 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (99.2%).

05:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
06:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
15:000 / 20 trips without a position100.0%
16:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 24 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 24 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:39– 06:03
Trip 35530040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:09 a.m. EST / 6:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:04– 06:18
Trip 24084040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:43 a.m. EST / 6:19 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:09– 06:33
Trip 5053040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:10 a.m. EST / 6:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:34– 06:48
Trip 30552040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:59 a.m. EST / 6:50 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:39– 07:03
Trip 26191040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:18 a.m. EST / 7:08 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:04– 07:18
Trip 29959040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:51 a.m. EST / 7:19 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:09– 07:33
Trip 20353040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:48 a.m. EST / 7:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:33– 07:48
Trip 5134040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:51 a.m. EST / 8:02 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:36– 08:03
Trip 34416040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:18 a.m. EST / 8:22 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:05– 08:20
Trip 31587040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:23 a.m. EST / 8:40 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:09– 08:36
Trip 18530040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:44 a.m. EST / 8:49 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:39– 09:12
Trip 7189040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:38 a.m. EST / 9:20 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day