Map
FRPrevious measure: 77.8% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (57,175 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.
Every 30 to 32 min
Scheduled service and available evidence
Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026
1
Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 4 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 5.
2
2 of 409 trips with a usable feed window (0.5%) had no matching position.
These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.
407 with position · 2 to investigate · 0 excluded · 409 scheduled trips
Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 5:48 p.m..
0 of 12 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.
0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.
Published position coverage: 407 / 409 (99.5%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.
Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.
Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 4:39 p.m.
Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.
Predictions against the timetable
77.8%
of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.
Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.
These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.
Calculated: Nov 4, 2026
2 partial-capture days not counted.
18 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.
Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.
Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 26 days counted.
2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.
0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 44 of 36,866 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.
0% of pairs (55) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.
| Time of day | Pairs checked | Bunched | Long gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.) | 3,335 | 0% (3) | 0% (1) |
| Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.) | 18,225 | 0% (18) | 0% (23) |
| Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.) | 8,806 | 0% (22) | 0% (31) |
| Evening (6 to 10 p.m.) | 6,500 | 0% (1) | 0% (0) |
Slowest: KITTIWAKE / SUNDEW to STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP, 17.5 km/h actual against 21.6 km/h planned.
| From | To | Distance | Planned speed | Actual speed | Trips measured | Slow trips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KITTIWAKE / SUNDEW | STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP | 1.6 km | 21.6 km/h | 17.5 km/h | 741 | 21% |
| STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP | KITTIWAKE / ABACA | 1.7 km | 29.3 km/h | 19.7 km/h | 718 | 45% |
| TERRY FOX 3C | CASTLEFRANK / MACNEIL | 2.2 km | 22 km/h | 20.9 km/h | 635 | 6% |
| STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP | ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE | 2.8 km | 28 km/h | 24.9 km/h | 734 | 16% |
| CASTLEFRANK / MACNEIL | ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE | 4.6 km | 27.9 km/h | 25 km/h | 718 | 1% |
| ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE | CASTLEFRANK / MACNEIL | 4.7 km | 26.5 km/h | 25.8 km/h | 640 | 1% |
| HAZELDEAN / CARP | KITTIWAKE / SUNDEW | 1.1 km | 39.5 km/h | 27.5 km/h | 686 | 45% |
| ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE | STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP | 2.8 km | 28.9 km/h | 27.7 km/h | 719 | 1% |
A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.
2 partial-capture days not counted.
3 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.
Not counted: 23 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.
Hours with the most cancellations: 7 a.m. (1), 8 a.m. (1), 5 p.m. (1)
OC Transpo gives no reason for single trips, so none is shown.
Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 2 of 409 trips we could check.
Verdict
Median provider predictions are 3.4 to 3.7 min later than the timetable in 2 hours of the day.
Predictions near the start are about 2.7 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.
14:00 has 59% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 80% the rest of the day.
Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.
Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.
| What | When | Measured | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable | 14:00 · 17:00 | 3.7 min late · 3.4 min late | Recovery time at the terminal |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match | 14:00 | 59% | Operations, not the timetable |
| StrengthObserved-position lower bound | All measured hours | 100% | Keep what works |
Route check
A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.
Bottom line
Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.
78 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 57,175 predictions checkedPrediction sample size: Larger sample
Based on 57,175 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.
Updated Nov 4, 2026, 4:32 p.m.
These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.
No current official notice matches this route.
Prediction differences by stop
33 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,708 predictions over 30 days).
Open this stop32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (855 predictions over 30 days).
Open this stop31 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (858 predictions over 30 days).
Open this stop30 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (867 predictions over 30 days).
Open this stopThese are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.
Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.
Schedule change check
This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.
Current published schedule began October 30, 2026
We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.
At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.
Service date checked: October 26, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed
Feed fingerprint: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad
Service date checked: November 2, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed
Feed fingerprint: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945
We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.
Still collecting: before has 30,032 arrivals over 14 days; after has 10,407 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.
Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.
We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.
The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.
Provisional results, published evidence
Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.
Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026
| Hour | On time | Median | 95th percentile | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 90.2% | 1.7 min late | 8.3 min late | 1,399 · 12 days |
| 07:00 | 73.7% | 2.7 min late | 16.3 min late | 1,777 · 14 days |
| 08:00 | 79.0% | 1.8 min late | 14.7 min late | 1,908 · 14 days |
| 09:00 | 81.9% | 2 min late | 17.4 min late | 2,150 · 14 days |
| 10:00 | 81.6% | 2 min late | 16.6 min late | 2,070 · 14 days |
| 11:00 | 80.2% | 2.3 min late | 14.8 min late | 2,015 · 14 days |
| 12:00 | 80.2% | 1.6 min late | 13.6 min late | 2,055 · 14 days |
| 13:00 | 76.2% | 2 min late | 15.4 min late | 2,021 · 14 days |
| 14:00 | 59.4% | 3.7 min late | 15.6 min late | 2,035 · 14 days |
| 15:00 | 70.8% | 2.7 min late | 18.1 min late | 2,006 · 14 days |
| 16:00 | 74.0% | 2.8 min late | 18.9 min late | 2,030 · 14 days |
| 17:00 | 68.4% | 3.4 min late | 18.9 min late | 1,857 · 14 days |
| 18:00 | 81.8% | 1.1 min late | 15.6 min late | 1,798 · 14 days |
| 19:00 | 86.2% | 1.2 min late | 13.7 min late | 1,792 · 14 days |
| 20:00 | 78.5% | 2 min late | 14.5 min late | 1,272 · 12 days |
| 21:00 | 95.9% | 1.2 min late | 3.9 min late | 897 · 12 days |
| 22:00 | 91.9% | 2 min late | 16.5 min late | 791 · 12 days |
| 23:00 | 100.0% | 0.6 min early | 1.3 min late | 40 · 8 days |
2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.
407 / 409 scheduled trips published at least one position across 6 service days (99.5%).
This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.
Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.
Dated service
The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.
November 3, 2026 · 63 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified
In short: 63 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.