Ward 1 · Ottawa · Councillor: Matthew Luloff
Orléans East-Cumberland
Orléans East-Cumberland: 84.5% of predictions within five minutes.
- Within five minutes
- 84.5%
- Stops in the ward
- 358
- Routes serving it
- 17
- Cancelled trips
- Not available yet
- Not counted per ward yet
Where it is slowest
- 80% and up 6
- 60 to 80% 2
- Under 60% 1
- Too little data 8
Routes serving the ward, by their share of predictions within five minutes. Each route result covers the whole route.
Routes in this ward
| Route | Within 5 min | Cancelled | Crowding |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 57.8% | Not published | Not published |
| 31 | 70.3% | Not published | Not published |
| 25 | 77.0% | Not published | Not published |
| 39 | 80.2% | Not published | Not published |
| 33 | 82.1% | Not published | Not published |
| 36 | 86.6% | Not published | Not published |
| 35 | 87.4% | Not published | Not published |
| 138 | 87.7% | Not published | Not published |
Cancellations and crowding are not published per route yet. 8 routes with too little data or a different service purpose are left out.
All routes and their sourcesOne-page brief
A printable summary of this ward for council and community meetings, with the same numbers, the method in plain words and dated sources.
What can be verified in Orléans East-Cumberland?
Arrival predictions, the imported timetable and train notices. Each is shown with its own source.
Provider prediction agreement
84.5%
of eligible predictions within five minutes of schedule
- How this compares
- Rank 2 of 22 · median 78.4%
Service, per the imported timetable
- Scheduled trips at ward stops
- Not available yet
- Routes
- 17
- Train lines
- 0
Current service inside this boundary
The live buses inside this boundary are on the Map tab.
Prediction measure, timetable inventory and methods
Service delivery · evidence state
Cancellations at stops in this ward
Not publishableNo zero or missed trip is inferred when exact stop calls cannot be published.
Predictions at stops inside the ward
84.5% within five minutes of the timetable across 269,624 eligible final provider predictions and 20 weekdays. These are not verified physical arrivals.
Predictions do not prove physical arrival.
Routes to inspect
Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026If available, these are route-wide vehicle-position matches for routes serving the ward. They do not locate a missed trip inside this ward or prove a cancellation. Each comparison uses scheduled trips for that same route and window.
- 3020 of 2 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
- 23739 of 40 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
- 391,106 of 1,128 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
Scheduled calls, sources and limits
17 routes · 358 stops. Timetable inventory, not trips delivered.
Cancellations at stops in this ward
Local count unavailable
The exact stop-call lookup did not finish within this page’s time budget. No zero, cancellation, or missed call is inferred.
Verdict
What would fix transit here
Worked out from the routes that serve this ward. Each item names the route, when it happens, and what would change it.
6 of 9 show repeated provider predictions later than the timetable, consistent with a possible scheduled running-time shortfall. A scheduler should test that scenario against operations; labour, fleet, recovery and transfer impacts are not established here.
Worst here: route 31, predictions later than timetable 16:00 to 23:00, 3.3 min late.
Best here: route 38, predictions consistently close to timetable, 92%.
9 of 9 routes here had something measurable to report.
- 00:00: 95.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,613 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
- 01:00: 87.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,073 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
- 02:00: 81.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,766 predictions, typically 1 min late
- 03:00: 80.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,748 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
- 04:00: 82% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,629 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
- 05:00: 84.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 4,862 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
- 06:00: 86.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 12,797 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
- 07:00: 75.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 17,875 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
- 08:00: 77.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,857 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
- 09:00: 82.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 17,708 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
- 10:00: 85% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,621 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
- 11:00: 83.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,510 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
- 12:00: 84.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,531 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
- 13:00: 82% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,515 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
- 14:00: 80.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 19,166 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
- 15:00: 78.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 19,859 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
- 16:00: 71.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 19,669 predictions, typically 2.4 min late
- 17:00: 70.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 20,479 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
- 18:00: 73.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,381 predictions, typically 2.3 min late
- 19:00: 77.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 16,274 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
- 20:00: 83.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 15,577 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
- 21:00: 85.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 14,471 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
- 22:00: 83.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 10,577 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
- 23:00: 92.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 6,551 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
- 90% or more of predictions within five minutes
- 80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
- under 80% of predictions within five minutes
- not enough data
| What | When | Measured | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable3125333239366 routes | 16:00 to 23:00 … 05:00 | 3.3 min late … 3.4 min late | More running time |
| StrengthPredictions consistently close to timetable381 routes | 04:00 to 00:00 | 92% | Keep what works |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match25333536325 routes | 16:00 … 19:00 | 58% … 25% | Operations, not the timetable |
| StrengthObserved-position lower bound3538313 routes | All measured hours | 100% | Keep what works |
| CaveatCoverage gap39253633138326 routes | All measured hours | 98% · 99% | More observation, not a service change |
How ORLÉANS EAST-CUMBERLAND is doing
These indicators separate repeated delay from variation in the operator’s arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff; they do not establish the cause or prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.
Measured over 171 route-hours. 2 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.
Scheduling
Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.
- Who can fix it
- A service planner
- What it costs
- Cost unavailable until fleet, labour, recovery and transfer effects are tested.
Predictions close to the timetable
81.9%
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is less than one minute early and less than three minutes late.
Route-hours with repeated late predictions
31of 171
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.
Route-hours with early predictions
0of 171
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not establish that buses departed early.
Typical predicted delay
3.3min
The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours; not a validated amount to add to the timetable.
Operations
Wide variation in arrival predictions calls for an operational review. Traffic, dispatch, boarding and timetable design may contribute; these predictions alone cannot identify the cause or the remedy.
- Who can fix it
- Operations, and often the road itself
- What it costs
- Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.
Prediction gap below twenty minutes
100%
Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is less than twenty minutes later than the median.
Route-hours with wide prediction gaps
0of 171
Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.
Typical prediction gap
Not enough evidence this month to publish this indicator.
The typical gap between the 95th-percentile eligible prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.
Service, per the imported timetable
Scheduled transit, provider prediction agreement with the timetable, and public services in this ward.
Provider prediction agreement
84.5% of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable. 227,816 of 269,624 settled trip-stop predictions at stops inside this ward matched that range across 20 weekdays with feed evidence, from Oct 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. These are provider predictions, not independently observed arrivals.
2 partial-capture days not counted.
- Predictions within five minutes
- 227,816
- Eligible trip-stop predictions
- 269,624
- Observed days
- 20 weekdays
How this compares
Ranked 2 of 22 measured wards. 6.1 points above the city median of 78.4%.
Highest: ward 22 at 85.1%. Lowest: ward 21 at 60.3%.
Only wards whose evidence meets the publication threshold are ranked. Same window and same method for each.
Which routes need closer review
9 of the 17 routes serving this ward have enough provider-prediction evidence to compare. Lowest timetable agreement first.
- 32Open route 57.8%Predictions within five minutes
10,325 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 31Open route 70.3%Predictions within five minutes
84,248 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 25Open route 77.0%Predictions within five minutes
150,538 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 39Open route 80.2%Predictions within five minutes
87,906 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 33Open route 82.1%Predictions within five minutes
72,386 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 36Open route 86.6%Predictions within five minutes
58,190 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 35Open route 87.4%Predictions within five minutes
61,617 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 138Open route 87.7%Predictions within five minutes
24,760 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 38Open route 90.9%Predictions within five minutes
53,804 eligible predictions across the whole route
8 more routes here are not ranked: school, express, shopper or event service, whose schedule result does not compare the same way.
Vehicle visibility to investigate
Vehicle visibility to investigate
The current summary uses seven days. For every route, you can also open yesterday, the last 7 days, or the last 30 days and inspect the day, scheduled trip, excluded feed gaps, and every observed public vehicle ID. An absence does not prove a vehicle fault or operator decision.
| Route | Scheduled trips | With a position | Without a matched position | Coverage | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 302 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |
| 237 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 97.5% | |
| 39 | 1,128 | 1,106 | 22 | 98.0% | |
| 36 | 455 | 449 | 6 | 98.7% | |
| 138 | 297 | 293 | 4 | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 80 | 79 | 1 | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 470 | 465 | 5 | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 760 | 754 | 6 | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 446 | 444 | 2 | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 471 | 470 | 1 | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 465 | 464 | 1 | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 221 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 539 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 678 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 634 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 612 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% |
Routes serving the ward
17 scheduled routesMap & current service
Current service inside this boundary
Scheduled lines, stops, and observed buses share one map. Select a route or vehicle for details.
Evidence & sources
Imported municipal polygon · 54 boundary vertices · City of Ottawa ward boundaries · imported Aug 4, 2026
Public amenity record for this ward
Public washrooms and drinking water
Choose a category to check which location details are available.Public washrooms (City data) 10
The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.
Drinking water (City data) 4
The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.
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Evidence included with the draft
- Canonical Otranspo evidence link
- https://otranspo.ca/en/city/wards/1
- Sources and time
- Sources and time: open the linked report for its source records and published or imported timestamps.
- Limitations
- Limitations: Otranspo is independent and may show unknown, suppressed, delayed, or corrected values. Confirm urgent or current service matters with the official agency.
Rate or report an issue
Rider evidence
Community reports
Signals below are moderated community aggregates, not official operator notices or reliability scores.
You can report without signing in. Anonymous reports count a little less when we calculate public patterns. You can add an account after submitting.
Report a specific problem
- Graffiti
- Cleanliness
- Lighting
- Snow or ice
- Washroom unavailable
- Water unavailable
- Accessibility barrier
- Other issue
Emergency: call 9-1-1. Check official OC Transpo or STO notices before travelling.
Civic evidence brief
The identity, boundary, contacts, service scope and evidence dates behind this ward report, kept together so the page can be cited without losing its qualifications.
- Municipality
- City of Ottawa, Ontario
- Geographic unit
- Official City of Ottawa municipal ward 1: ORLÉANS EAST-CUMBERLAND
- Boundary and vintage
- City ward layer · effective not published · imported August 4, 2026
- Official civic contacts
- Matthew Luloff · Councillor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
- Mark Sutcliffe · Mayor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
- Relevant scheduled service
- 17 public route records with a stop inside this boundary · operators: OC Transpo
- Transit evidence vintage
- Timetable import: not published · reliability window: Oct 3, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026
A ward boundary, route inventory, destination list, population count or employment count supplies civic context. None of those values alone measures passenger demand, household trip effects, transfers or daily attendance.
Ottawa wards are municipal wards. They are not Gatineau electoral districts, and results from the two boundary systems are not interchangeable.
Evidence behind this pageOpen the definition, method, sources, dates, coverage, and known limits.
What is being shown
A ward-level inventory of scheduled transit, public washrooms, drinking-water locations, and eligible final OC Transpo provider predictions at stops inside the ward.
How it was produced
Current imported records are assigned by point-in-polygon to the sourced ward boundary. Reliability uses one eligible final provider prediction per trip, stop, and service date in the latest 28 completed service days. Within five minutes is measured against the timetable, not a physical arrival. Publication requires 20 weekdays with prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions.
Evidence dates
- Imported
- Computed or assembled
- Sample
- 269,624 eligible settled provider predictions across 20 weekdays with prediction evidence support the reliability result.
- Method or data version
- ward-counts-v1 + ward-stop-settled-arrivals-purpose-aware-v3
- Source checksum
- ward-reliability:17626bcec0998801b04ae7bfd4d220e602e5e5b9e709ac56a2dcb4d67cebb85c
Sources
Limits to keep in mind
- Counts describe the published inventory inside the boundary, not service quality or access from every address.
- Reliability covers final OC Transpo provider predictions at geographically assigned stops; physical arrivals are not independently measured. Rail and trips without eligible prediction evidence are not represented.
- An unavailable count remains unavailable. It is not changed to zero.
How we measure this
For each trip, stop and service date at stops inside the ward, we keep the last eligible OC Transpo prediction and compare it with the timetable. It counts as within five minutes when the two are no more than five minutes apart. This is not a physical arrival.
The window is the latest 28 completed service days. A result is published only with 20 weekdays of prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions. Route results cover each whole route, not only the part inside the ward.
Read the full methodContains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – City of Ottawa.