No 69 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 91.6% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (18,013 arrivals over 22 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO route 69: St-Louis

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 214 trips with a usable feed window (0.5%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

213 with position · 1 to investigate · 56 excluded · 270 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 2:00 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 1 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

56 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 213 / 270 (78.9%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 1:08 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

91.6%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 18,013
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

5 a.m.97% · 147 predictions · 7 days
6 a.m.90% · 329 predictions · 8 days
7 a.m.77% · 224 predictions · 7 days
8 a.m.81% · 726 predictions · 11 days
9 a.m.92% · 491 predictions · 12 days
10 a.m.92% · 518 predictions · 11 days
11 a.m.98% · 534 predictions · 12 days
12 p.m.98% · 543 predictions · 12 days
1 p.m.95% · 469 predictions · 11 days
2 p.m.95% · 467 predictions · 13 days
3 p.m.96% · 728 predictions · 12 days
4 p.m.79% · 615 predictions · 12 days
5 p.m.90% · 803 predictions · 12 days
6 p.m.91% · 873 predictions · 11 days
7 p.m.73% · 457 predictions · 10 days
8 p.m.98% · 491 predictions · 10 days
9 p.m.94% · 464 predictions · 10 days
10 p.m.99% · 513 predictions · 10 days
11 p.m.98% · 219 predictions · 9 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

19 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 20 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (2,719 pairs checked at stops).

0% of pairs (1) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	1,043	0% (0)	0% (1)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	105	0% (0)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	1,025	0% (0)	0% (0)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	546	0% (0)	0% (0)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: des GRANDS-JARDINS/de la POINTE-TAILLON to des ÉRABLES/SAINT-ALEXANDRE, 16.3 km/h actual against 22.4 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
des GRANDS-JARDINS/de la POINTE-TAILLON	des ÉRABLES/SAINT-ALEXANDRE	1.9 km	22.4 km/h	16.3 km/h	269	25%
Av. GATINEAU/SAINT-LOUIS	de PROVENCE/d'AUVERGNE	610 m	18.2 km/h	19.5 km/h	288	4%
des FLANDRES/de PIEDMONT	de PROVENCE/d'AUVERGNE	830 m	16.6 km/h	20.2 km/h	290	2%
de PROVENCE/d'AUVERGNE	des FLANDRES/de PIEDMONT	780 m	21.4 km/h	20.7 km/h	274	6%
de PROVENCE/d'AUVERGNE	SAINT-LOUIS/Av. GATINEAU	970 m	19.4 km/h	21.5 km/h	292	0%
des ÉRABLES/SAINT-ALEXANDRE	des GRANDS-JARDINS/de la POINTE-TAILLON (fin)	2.1 km	25.9 km/h	24.4 km/h	281	9%
des ÉRABLES/SAINT-ALEXANDRE	Av. GATINEAU/SAINT-LOUIS	3.8 km	25.9 km/h	25.1 km/h	274	1%
SAINT-LOUIS/Av. GATINEAU	des ÉRABLES/SAINT-ALEXANDRE	3.5 km	26.3 km/h	25.6 km/h	293	1%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 214 trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	Weekdays	Saturdays	Sundays
Before 6 am	Usually seats0% of 30 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats0% of 221 trips	Usually seats0% of 14 trips	Usually seats0% of 14 trips
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats0% of 390 trips	Usually seats0% of 87 trips	Usually seats0% of 91 trips
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats0.3% of 296 trips	Usually seats0% of 47 trips	Usually seats0% of 48 trips
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats0% of 265 trips	Usually seats0% of 63 trips	Usually seats0% of 56 trips
After 10 pm	Usually seats0% of 42 trips	Usually seats0% of 15 trips	Usually seats0% of 17 trips

Based on 55 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.6 min later than the timetable in 1 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 3.3 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

19:00 has 73% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 94% the rest of the day.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 19 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 96.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 147 predictions, typically 2.3 min late
06:00: 90% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 329 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
07:00: 76.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 224 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
08:00: 80.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 726 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
09:00: 92.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 491 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
10:00: 92.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 518 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
11:00: 98.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 534 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
12:00: 98.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 543 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
13:00: 94.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 469 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
14:00: 94.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 467 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
15:00: 95.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 728 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
16:00: 79.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 615 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
17:00: 89.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 803 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
18:00: 91.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 873 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
19:00: 73.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 457 predictions, typically 3.6 min late
20:00: 97.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 491 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
21:00: 93.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 464 predictions, typically 0.2 min late
22:00: 98.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 513 predictions, typically 0.1 min early
23:00: 97.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 219 predictions, typically 0.2 min early

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	19:00	3.6 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	19:00	73%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 19:00: Measured arrivals 457; Hours affected 1; Spread 4.1 min; Median delay 3.6 min; Suggested running time change 3.6 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 19:00: Hour 19:00; On time 73.1%; Measured arrivals 457; Shortfall 20.7 pts; Route median on time 93.8%

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 69 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were usually close to schedule in this dated sample.

92 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 18,013 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 18,013 eligible provider predictions over 22 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 5, 2026, 1:32 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

No repeated prediction-difference period has cleared the evidence threshold yet.

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

Quai local de la GAPPE #5
61 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (357 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 1Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 1 of 214 checked trips need a closer look1 of 214 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 56 of 270 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 6.0 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)92 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 3, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 42
Distinct scheduled stops: 54
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:37 a.m.–11:31 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

New schedule

Service date checked: November 9, 2026

Scheduled trips: 42
Distinct scheduled stops: 54
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:37 a.m.–11:31 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 9,448 arrivals over 13 days; after has 1,135 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 91.6%
Eligible predictions checked: 18,013
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 6 min late

Patterns by hour (19)

Patterns by hour (19)
Hour	On time	Median	95th percentile	Evidence
05:00	96.6%	2.3 min late	4.7 min late	147 · 7 days
06:00	90.0%	2.2 min late	8.6 min late	329 · 8 days
07:00	76.8%	1.5 min late	9.3 min late	224 · 7 days
08:00	80.9%	1.2 min late	9.6 min late	726 · 11 days
09:00	92.1%	0.6 min late	6.4 min late	491 · 12 days
10:00	92.1%	1.2 min late	8.3 min late	518 · 11 days
11:00	98.1%	0.8 min late	3.7 min late	534 · 12 days
12:00	98.3%	0.5 min late	2.7 min late	543 · 12 days
13:00	94.9%	1.1 min late	4.7 min late	469 · 11 days
14:00	94.6%	1.1 min late	4.2 min late	467 · 13 days
15:00	95.7%	1.6 min late	4.7 min late	728 · 12 days
16:00	79.3%	2.5 min late	12.4 min late	615 · 12 days
17:00	89.5%	1.5 min late	6.3 min late	803 · 12 days
18:00	91.1%	1.8 min late	5.5 min late	873 · 11 days
19:00	73.1%	3.6 min late	7.7 min late	457 · 10 days
20:00	97.6%	0.6 min late	3.9 min late	491 · 10 days
21:00	93.8%	0.2 min late	2.9 min late	464 · 10 days
22:00	98.8%	0.1 min early	2.1 min late	513 · 10 days
23:00	97.7%	0.2 min early	2.5 min late	219 · 9 days

No repeated pattern below 70% is yet established across at least three service days.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

213 / 270 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (78.9%).

19:006 / 14 trips without a position57.1%
07:004 / 10 trips without a position60.0%
23:002 / 5 trips without a position60.0%
22:005 / 14 trips without a position64.3%
06:003 / 10 trips without a position70.0%
20:004 / 14 trips without a position71.4%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 42 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 32 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 10 with an unknown outcome.

05:37– 05:56
Trip sto:63296900Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:46 a.m. EST / 5:58 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:07– 06:26
Trip sto:63296901Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:04 a.m. EST / 6:26 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:37– 06:56
Trip sto:63296902Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:39 a.m. EST / 7:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:05– 07:27
Trip sto:63296903Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:01 a.m. EST / 7:30 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:41– 08:03
Trip sto:63296904Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:33 a.m. EST / 8:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:03– 08:22
Trip sto:63296905Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:54 a.m. EST / 8:22 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:27– 08:48
Trip sto:63296922Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:22 a.m. EST / 8:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:31– 08:50
Trip sto:63296906Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:26 a.m. EST / 8:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:49– 09:08
Trip sto:63296907Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:00 a.m. EST / 9:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:30– 09:51
Trip sto:63296923Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:30 a.m. EST / 9:40 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:52– 10:11
Trip sto:63296908Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
10:29– 10:50
Trip sto:63296924Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown

· Open all evidence for this day