No 40 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 69.6% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (8,637 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO route 40: Jardins Lavigne

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 47 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

47 with position · 0 to investigate · 13 excluded · 60 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 2:52 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 2 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

13 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 47 / 60 (78.3%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 1:47 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

69.6%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 8,637
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

5 a.m.96% · 55 predictions · 8 days
6 a.m.97% · 701 predictions · 8 days
7 a.m.79% · 608 predictions · 7 days
8 a.m.95% · 761 predictions · 8 days
9 a.m.93% · 56 predictions · 7 days
3 p.m.70% · 534 predictions · 9 days
4 p.m.49% · 639 predictions · 10 days
5 p.m.55% · 957 predictions · 9 days
6 p.m.86% · 279 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

9 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 20 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (3,774 pairs checked at stops).

0% of pairs (0) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	1,402	0% (0)	0% (0)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	74	0% (0)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	1,896	0% (0)	0% (0)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	402	0% (0)	0% (0)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: STATION LYON to du PORTAGE/AUBRY, 6.9 km/h actual against 9.4 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
STATION LYON	du PORTAGE/AUBRY	1.9 km	9.4 km/h	6.9 km/h	55	18%
du PORTAGE/AUBRY	LAURIER/EDDY	470 m	9 km/h	9.5 km/h	70	7%
TERRASSES de la CHAUDIÈRE	de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER	750 m	12.3 km/h	9.6 km/h	54	19%
de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER	BANK/WELLINGTON	1.7 km	8.6 km/h	11.9 km/h	44	0%
FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	des ALLUMETTIÈRES/WILFRID-LAVIGNE	3.9 km	19.2 km/h	14.7 km/h	45	33%
LAURIER/EDDY	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	1.5 km	15.5 km/h	15.1 km/h	68	1%
du VALLON/du CAVEAU	WILFRID-LAVIGNE/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	1.5 km	15.8 km/h	16.5 km/h	68	3%
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/CHÂTEAUBRIAND	ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINT-DOMINIQUE	1.2 km	18 km/h	17.4 km/h	69	13%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

City road work near this route

Road work and event road closures the City of Ottawa has published, measured as near this route’s path. Near is not proof that the bus is detoured: check the operator’s own alerts for that.

The City’s road work list could not be read right now.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

Source: City of Ottawa traffic events (road work and closures). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. The City says this list is best effort and may be incomplete. City of Ottawa traffic map ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	Weekdays	Saturdays	Sundays
Before 6 am	Usually seats0% of 32 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats38.4% of 172 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats4.3% of 47 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats35.7% of 182 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats2.1% of 48 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
After 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings

Based on 55 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.3 to 4.3 min later than the timetable in 3 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 4 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 6.7 min along the route.

Provider predictions are about 1.2 min earlier than the timetable, 09:00.

16:00 has 49% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 86% the rest of the day.

Scenario: 3 to 4 min more running time on 24 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 9 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 96.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 55 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
06:00: 97.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 701 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
07:00: 79.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 608 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
08:00: 94.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 761 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
09:00: 92.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 56 predictions, typically 1.2 min early
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 70.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 534 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
16:00: 48.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 639 predictions, typically 4.7 min late
17:00: 54.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 957 predictions, typically 3.9 min late
18:00: 85.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 279 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	07:00 · 16:00 to 18:00	3.3 min late · 4.3 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	16:00	49%	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable	09:00	1.2 min early	Less running time, or holding points

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 16:00 to 18:00: Measured arrivals 1,596; Hours affected 2; Spread 13.8 min; Median delay 4.3 min; Suggested running time change 4.3 min
Predictions later than timetable · 07:00: Measured arrivals 608; Hours affected 1; Spread 4.2 min; Median delay 3.3 min; Suggested running time change 3.3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 16:00: Hour 16:00; On time 48.5%; Measured arrivals 639; Shortfall 37.2 pts; Route median on time 85.7%
Predictions earlier than timetable · 09:00: Measured arrivals 56; Hours affected 1; Spread 4.3 min; Median delay -1.2 min; Suggested running time change -1.2 min

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 40 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.

70 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 8,637 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 8,637 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 5, 2026, 2:32 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

4 p.m.–5 p.m.: 52 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (639 predictions over 10 days).
5 p.m.–6 p.m.: 45 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (957 predictions over 9 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

chemin d'AYLMER/ROYALE
56 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (88 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
de la COLLINE/des EXPLORATEURS
55 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (89 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
du VALLON/des DRAVEURS
55 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (89 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
ALEXANDRE-TACHÉ/SAINTE-THÉRÈSE
54 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (87 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 2Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 0 of 47 checked trips need a closer look0 of 47 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 13 of 60 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 16.7 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)70 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 3, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 12
Distinct scheduled stops: 115
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:55 a.m.–6:26 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

New schedule

Service date checked: November 9, 2026

Scheduled trips: 12
Distinct scheduled stops: 115
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:55 a.m.–6:26 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 4,446 arrivals over 10 days; after has 686 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 69.6%
Eligible predictions checked: 8,637
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 16.7 min late

Patterns by hour (9)

Patterns by hour (9)
Hour	On time	Median	95th percentile	Evidence
05:00	96.4%	0.6 min late	2.5 min late	55 · 8 days
06:00	97.1%	1.5 min late	4.6 min late	701 · 8 days
07:00	79.3%	3.3 min late	7.5 min late	608 · 7 days
08:00	94.5%	1.5 min late	5.3 min late	761 · 8 days
09:00	92.9%	1.2 min early	3 min late	56 · 7 days
15:00	70.2%	1.8 min late	9.7 min late	534 · 9 days
16:00	48.5%	4.7 min late	16.4 min late	639 · 10 days
17:00	54.6%	3.9 min late	19.9 min late	957 · 9 days
18:00	85.7%	1.8 min late	7.9 min late	279 · 8 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

47 / 60 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (78.3%).

06:004 / 10 trips without a position60.0%
07:003 / 10 trips without a position70.0%
15:003 / 10 trips without a position70.0%
05:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
08:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
17:001 / 10 trips without a position90.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 12 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 11 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 1 with an unknown outcome.

05:55– 06:49
Trip sto:63295190Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:56 a.m. EST / 6:41 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:24– 07:19
Trip sto:63295051Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:23 a.m. EST / 7:14 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:55– 07:56
Trip sto:63295931Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:52 a.m. EST / 8:05 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:25– 08:31
Trip sto:63294783Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:17 a.m. EST / 8:33 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:55– 08:56
Trip sto:63294782Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:47 a.m. EST / 8:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:25– 09:23
Trip sto:63295622Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:26 a.m. EST / 9:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:00– 16:01
Trip sto:63295926Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
15:30– 16:31
Trip sto:63295191Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:17 p.m. EST / 4:44 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:00– 17:05
Trip sto:63295490Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:17 p.m. EST / 5:19 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:30– 17:33
Trip sto:63295200Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:31 p.m. EST / 5:44 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
17:00– 18:00
Trip sto:63295192Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:06 p.m. EST / 6:12 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
17:33– 18:26
Trip sto:63296170Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:34 p.m. EST / 6:32 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.