No 36 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 85% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (9,596 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO route 36: Cégep Gabrielle-Roy

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 68 trips with a usable feed window (1.5%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

67 with position · 1 to investigate · 2 excluded · 70 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 2:52 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

2 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 67 / 70 (95.7%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 1:40 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

85%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 9,596
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

8 a.m.77% · 250 predictions · 8 days
9 a.m.82% · 851 predictions · 9 days
10 a.m.98% · 709 predictions · 9 days
11 a.m.90% · 810 predictions · 10 days
12 p.m.93% · 820 predictions · 9 days
1 p.m.88% · 725 predictions · 9 days
2 p.m.93% · 660 predictions · 10 days
3 p.m.34% · 420 predictions · 9 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

8 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 20 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Too few buses were measured to judge bunching: 0 pairs checked, 30 needed.

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: CENTRE RIDEAU to KENT / SPARKS, 7.7 km/h actual against 13.9 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
CENTRE RIDEAU	KENT / SPARKS	1.2 km	13.9 km/h	7.7 km/h	76	46%
KENT / SPARKS	du PORTAGE/AUBRY	1.2 km	11.9 km/h	9.8 km/h	80	18%
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY	DANIEL-JOHNSON/LUCIEN-BRAULT	1.7 km	16.9 km/h	10.8 km/h	73	44%
TERRASSES de la CHAUDIÈRE	de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER	750 m	14.2 km/h	11.4 km/h	78	19%
SAINT-JOSEPH/NICOLET	SAINT-JOSEPH/WìGWÀS	490 m	7.3 km/h	12 km/h	80	0%
du PORTAGE/AUBRY	LAURIER/EDDY	470 m	14.1 km/h	13.4 km/h	82	6%
SAINT-JOSEPH/MONTCALM	SAINT-JOSEPH/SAINTE-MARIE	1.2 km	18 km/h	13.9 km/h	81	23%
SAINT-JOSEPH/SAINTE-MARIE	SAINT-JOSEPH/NICOLET	410 m	12.2 km/h	14 km/h	82	4%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

City road work near this route

Road work and event road closures the City of Ottawa has published, measured as near this route’s path. Near is not proof that the bus is detoured: check the operator’s own alerts for that.

Road work
ALBERT between ELGIN and METCALFE
Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 a.m. to Jan 26, 2027, 5:00 p.m.
ALBERT lane reduction between ELGIN and METCALFE due to construction, from October 29th to January 26th.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:44 p.m..
Road work
Slater between Bay and Lyon
Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 a.m. to Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 p.m.
Slater lane reduction between Bay and Lyon due to construction, from November 2nd to 6th.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Oct 30, 2026, 1:28 p.m..
Road work
ALBERT at LYON
Dates not published
Albert and Lyon off-peak lane reductions at the intersection due to construction.
about 2 m from the route
City record updated Sep 9, 2026, 6:32 p.m..

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

Source: City of Ottawa traffic events (road work and closures). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. The City says this list is best effort and may be incomplete. City of Ottawa traffic map ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Thu, Oct 8 to Wed, Nov 4.

Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 1 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Fri, Oct 23, scheduled 13:24

A cause is shown only when STO’s own alert for that trip gives one.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 68 trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	Weekdays	Saturdays	Sundays
Before 6 am	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats0% of 59 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats3.3% of 457 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats31.9% of 69 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
After 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings

Based on 55 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.5 to 6.9 min later than the timetable in 2 hours of the day.

15:00 has 34% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 89% the rest of the day.

Only 96% of scheduled trips were seen; the rest are not counted as missed.

Scenario: 4 min more running time on 8 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 8 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: not enough data
07:00: not enough data
08:00: 77.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 250 predictions, typically 3.5 min late
09:00: 81.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 851 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
10:00: 97.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 709 predictions, typically 1 min late
11:00: 89.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 810 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
12:00: 93.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 820 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
13:00: 87.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 725 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
14:00: 93% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 660 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
15:00: 34.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 420 predictions, typically 6.9 min late
16:00: not enough data
17:00: not enough data
18:00: not enough data
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	08:00 · 15:00	3.5 min late · 6.9 min late	More running time
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	15:00	34%	Operations, not the timetable
CaveatCoverage gap	All measured hours	96%	More observation, not a service change

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 420; Hours affected 1; Spread 6 min; Median delay 6.9 min; Suggested running time change 6.9 min
Predictions later than timetable · 08:00: Measured arrivals 250; Hours affected 1; Spread 3.1 min; Median delay 3.5 min; Suggested running time change 3.5 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 15:00: Hour 15:00; On time 34.3%; Measured arrivals 420; Shortfall 54.3 pts; Route median on time 88.6%
Coverage gap · All measured hours: Target 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 95.7%; Service days 5; Trips with a matching position 67; Scheduled trips 70

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 36 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were usually close to schedule, but check the problem times below.

85 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 9,596 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 9,596 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 5, 2026, 1:32 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

3 p.m.–4 p.m.: 66 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (420 predictions over 9 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

LAURIER/EDDY
40 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (104 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
du PORTAGE/AUBRY
39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (103 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY/arrivée
34 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (99 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
du MONT-BLEU/de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES
30 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (102 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: No trips start in the next 4 hoursChecks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 1 of 68 checked trips need a closer look1 of 68 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 2 of 70 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 8.7 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)85 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 3, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 14
Distinct scheduled stops: 100
Distinct published paths: 3
Published service span: 8:34 a.m.–3:35 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

New schedule

Service date checked: November 9, 2026

Scheduled trips: 14
Distinct scheduled stops: 100
Distinct published paths: 3
Published service span: 8:34 a.m.–3:35 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 64b436d79ab51a76 · 623ad8b0-ad29-4d70-b8e6-e594a396233e

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 5,147 arrivals over 10 days; after has 720 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 85.0%
Eligible predictions checked: 9,596
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 8.7 min late

Patterns by hour (8)

Patterns by hour (8)
Hour	On time	Median	95th percentile	Evidence
08:00	77.2%	3.5 min late	6.6 min late	250 · 8 days
09:00	81.6%	2.8 min late	14.2 min late	851 · 9 days
10:00	97.9%	1 min late	3.5 min late	709 · 9 days
11:00	89.5%	0.7 min late	5.9 min late	810 · 10 days
12:00	93.4%	1.3 min late	5.4 min late	820 · 9 days
13:00	87.7%	1.8 min late	7.9 min late	725 · 9 days
14:00	93.0%	0.5 min late	5.2 min late	660 · 10 days
15:00	34.3%	6.9 min late	12.8 min late	420 · 9 days

1 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

67 / 70 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (95.7%).

13:002 / 10 trips without a position80.0%
09:001 / 10 trips without a position90.0%
08:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
10:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
11:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
12:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 14 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 13 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 1 with an unknown outcome.

08:34– 09:29
Trip sto:63295003Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:23 a.m. EST / 9:00 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:45– 09:32
Trip sto:63294815Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:47 a.m. EST / 9:36 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:25– 10:19
Trip sto:63290312Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:30 a.m. EST / 9:40 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:45– 10:34
Trip sto:63294911Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
10:25– 11:17
Trip sto:63295104Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:06 a.m. EST / 11:06 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:45– 11:35
Trip sto:63294698Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:07 a.m. EST / 11:07 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:25– 12:19
Trip sto:63294747Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:47 a.m. EST / 11:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:45– 12:35
Trip sto:63295041Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:47 a.m. EST / 11:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:24– 13:18
Trip sto:63295797Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:50 p.m. EST / 1:06 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:45– 13:35
Trip sto:63295762Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:50 p.m. EST / 1:06 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
13:24– 14:18
Trip sto:63295743Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 1:46 p.m. EST / 1:47 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
13:45– 14:35
Trip sto:63296140Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 1:46 p.m. EST / 2:46 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day