No 31 trips cancelled now · 3 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 79.4% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (54,686 arrivals over 22 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO route 31: Parc De La Montagne

Toward Cégep GRoy1 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

CENTRE RIDEAU1 min sched.
ALBERT/METCALFE3 min sched.
ALBERT/BANK4 min sched.
KENT / SPARKS5 min sched.
WELLINGTON/LYON6 min sched.
LAVAL/LAURIER11 min sched.
du PORTAGE/de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE12 min sched.
de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER13 min sched.
LAURIER/de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE14 min sched.
MUSÉE DE L'HISTOIRE15 min sched.
LAURIER/des ALLUMETTIÈRES16 min sched.
LAURIER/VERDUN17 min sched.
204, LAURIER17 min sched.
SACRÉ-COEUR/KENT19 min sched.
SACRÉ-COEUR/des AÇORES20 min sched.
SACRÉ-COEUR/MANCE21 min sched.
SACRÉ-COEUR/SAINT-HENRI0 min sched.
SAINT-RÉDEMPTEUR/ADÉLARD-BEAUCHAMP1 min sched.
MONTCLAIR/DUCHARME5 min sched.
MONTCLAIR/SAINT-JOSEPH5 min sched.
MONTCLAIR/FORTIER6 min sched.
MONTCLAIR/LABELLE7 min sched.
MONTCLAIR/MOUSSETTE8 min sched.
MONTCLAIR/LIONEL-ÉMOND8 min sched.
LIONEL-ÉMOND/CARON8 min sched.
LIONEL-ÉMOND/GAMELIN9 min sched.
SAINT-RAYMOND/ISABELLE10 min sched.
ISABELLE/FRÉCHETTE11 min sched.
ISABELLE/de la GUADELOUPE12 min sched.
ISABELLE/SAINT-ONGE13 min sched.
RIEL/ISABELLE14 min sched.
RIEL/BÉDARD14 min sched.
RIEL/CHOUINARD15 min sched.
RIEL/CHOUINARD16 min sched.
RIEL/du MONT-BLEU16 min sched.
RIEL/de l'ESCALIER17 min sched.
RIEL/de SAINT-BRIEUC19 min sched.
RIEL/MARCOUX19 min sched.
RIEL/TALBOT20 min sched.
RIEL/du RAVIN-BLEU21 min sched.
de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/RIEL22 min sched.
de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/TALBOT23 min sched.
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY/arrivée24 min sched.

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Trips with any notice: 2.

Trips needing investigation

3 of 439 trips with a usable feed window (0.7%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

436 with position · 3 to investigate · 70 excluded · 509 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 2:36 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 12 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

70 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 436 / 509 (85.7%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 1:38 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

79.4%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 54,686
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

12 a.m.96% · 384 predictions · 10 days
1 a.m.92% · 394 predictions · 10 days
5 a.m.98% · 278 predictions · 7 days
6 a.m.84% · 781 predictions · 10 days
7 a.m.89% · 1,316 predictions · 9 days
8 a.m.74% · 1,920 predictions · 10 days
9 a.m.79% · 2,096 predictions · 11 days
10 a.m.96% · 1,779 predictions · 11 days
11 a.m.91% · 1,728 predictions · 12 days
12 p.m.87% · 1,974 predictions · 12 days
1 p.m.87% · 2,180 predictions · 12 days
2 p.m.81% · 1,979 predictions · 13 days
3 p.m.74% · 1,890 predictions · 12 days
4 p.m.54% · 1,767 predictions · 13 days
5 p.m.61% · 2,211 predictions · 12 days
6 p.m.79% · 1,879 predictions · 11 days
7 p.m.79% · 907 predictions · 11 days
8 p.m.86% · 753 predictions · 10 days
9 p.m.93% · 801 predictions · 10 days
10 p.m.85% · 786 predictions · 10 days
11 p.m.84% · 807 predictions · 10 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

21 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

2% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 525 of 30,465 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

1% of pairs (272) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	4,528	1% (56)	0% (21)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	15,452	1% (168)	1% (96)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	7,192	2% (179)	1% (100)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	3,293	4% (122)	2% (55)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: CENTRE RIDEAU to de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER, 11 km/h actual against 14.1 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
CENTRE RIDEAU	de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER	2.8 km	14.1 km/h	11 km/h	528	22%
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY	RIEL/ISABELLE	3.2 km	22.3 km/h	11.9 km/h	539	61%
du PORTAGE/AUBRY	CENTRE RIDEAU	2.8 km	13.1 km/h	13.6 km/h	535	0%
de l'HÔTEL-de-VILLE/LAURIER	SAINT-RÉDEMPTEUR/ADÉLARD-BEAUCHAMP	2.2 km	15.4 km/h	14.3 km/h	579	7%
RIEL/ISABELLE	LIONEL-ÉMOND/SAINT-RAYMOND	1.1 km	13.3 km/h	15.9 km/h	592	2%
MONTCLAIR/ST-JOSEPH	SACRÉ-COEUR/LAURIER	2 km	14.6 km/h	16.4 km/h	597	1%
SACRÉ-COEUR/LAURIER	du PORTAGE/AUBRY	1.3 km	21.2 km/h	17 km/h	609	20%
LIONEL-ÉMOND/GAMELIN	RIEL/ISABELLE	1.4 km	16.9 km/h	17.4 km/h	607	1%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

City road work near this route

Road work and event road closures the City of Ottawa has published, measured as near this route’s path. Near is not proof that the bus is detoured: check the operator’s own alerts for that.

The City’s road work list could not be read right now.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

Source: City of Ottawa traffic events (road work and closures). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. The City says this list is best effort and may be incomplete. City of Ottawa traffic map ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

4 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 8 a.m. (1), 2 p.m. (1), 3 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Fri, Oct 30, scheduled 15:24
Wed, Oct 28, scheduled 14:40
Mon, Oct 19, scheduled 08:21
Wed, Oct 7, scheduled 17:25

A cause is shown only when STO’s own alert for that trip gives one.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 3 of 439 trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	Weekdays	Saturdays	Sundays
Before 6 am	Usually seats0% of 72 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats11.3% of 559 trips	Usually seats0% of 34 trips	Usually seats0% of 32 trips
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats0.9% of 1,296 trips	Usually seats1.1% of 91 trips	Usually seats0% of 85 trips
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats10.1% of 741 trips	Usually seats9.1% of 55 trips	Usually seats4.1% of 49 trips
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats1.2% of 492 trips	Usually seats0% of 65 trips	Usually seats0% of 64 trips
After 10 pm	Usually seats1% of 204 trips	Usually seats1.9% of 54 trips	Usually seats0% of 46 trips

Based on 56 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.8 min later than the timetable in 2 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 3.3 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

16:00 has 54% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 85% the rest of the day.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 21 hours with samples

00:00: 96.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 384 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
01:00: 91.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 394 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 97.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 278 predictions, typically 0.1 min late
06:00: 83.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 781 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
07:00: 88.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,316 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
08:00: 73.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,920 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
09:00: 78.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,096 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
10:00: 96.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,779 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
11:00: 90.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,728 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
12:00: 87.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,974 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
13:00: 86.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,180 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
14:00: 80.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,979 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
15:00: 73.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,890 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
16:00: 54.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,767 predictions, typically 4.3 min late
17:00: 61.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,211 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
18:00: 78.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,879 predictions, typically 2.3 min late
19:00: 78.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 907 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
20:00: 85.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 753 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
21:00: 93.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 801 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
22:00: 84.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 786 predictions, typically 2 min late
23:00: 84.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 807 predictions, typically 2.4 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	16:00 to 18:00	3.8 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	16:00	54%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 16:00 to 18:00: Measured arrivals 3,978; Hours affected 2; Spread 12.6 min; Median delay 3.8 min; Suggested running time change 3.8 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 16:00: Hour 16:00; On time 54.3%; Measured arrivals 1,767; Shortfall 30.2 pts; Route median on time 84.5%

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 31 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.

79 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 54,686 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 54,686 eligible provider predictions over 22 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 1:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

4 p.m.–5 p.m.: 46 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,767 predictions over 13 days).
5 p.m.–6 p.m.: 39 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,211 predictions over 12 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY
46 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (664 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop
SACRÉ-COEUR/des AÇORES
37 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (713 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop
WELLINGTON/LYON
35 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (685 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop
SACRÉ-COEUR/MANCE
35 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (713 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 12Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 3 of 439 checked trips need a closer look3 of 439 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 70 of 509 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 11.1 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)79 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 2, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: October 26, 2026

Scheduled trips: 0
Distinct scheduled stops: 0
Distinct published paths: 0
Published service span: —–—

Feed fingerprint: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

New schedule

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 87
Distinct scheduled stops: 84
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:21 a.m.–1:41 a.m. next day

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Feed fingerprint: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 30,018 arrivals over 13 days; after has 4,408 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 79.4%
Eligible predictions checked: 54,686
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 11.1 min late

Patterns by hour (21)

Patterns by hour (21)
Hour	On time	Median	95th percentile	Evidence
00:00	96.1%	0.9 min late	4.8 min late	384 · 10 days
01:00	91.9%	0.5 min late	5.4 min late	394 · 10 days
05:00	97.8%	0.1 min late	4.1 min late	278 · 7 days
06:00	83.7%	2.6 min late	6.7 min late	781 · 10 days
07:00	88.8%	1.4 min late	6.7 min late	1,316 · 9 days
08:00	73.6%	2.5 min late	10.1 min late	1,920 · 10 days
09:00	78.6%	2.2 min late	12.6 min late	2,096 · 11 days
10:00	96.1%	0.5 min late	3.8 min late	1,779 · 11 days
11:00	90.9%	0.7 min late	5.7 min late	1,728 · 12 days
12:00	87.2%	1.7 min late	8.1 min late	1,974 · 12 days
13:00	86.5%	1.5 min late	7.9 min late	2,180 · 12 days
14:00	80.9%	2.1 min late	9.7 min late	1,979 · 13 days
15:00	73.9%	1.8 min late	13.8 min late	1,890 · 12 days
16:00	54.3%	4.3 min late	17.3 min late	1,767 · 13 days
17:00	61.1%	3.3 min late	15.5 min late	2,211 · 12 days
18:00	78.9%	2.3 min late	12 min late	1,879 · 11 days
19:00	78.8%	2.7 min late	8.2 min late	907 · 11 days
20:00	85.5%	1.9 min late	7 min late	753 · 10 days
21:00	93.3%	1.7 min late	5.4 min late	801 · 10 days
22:00	84.5%	2 min late	6.1 min late	786 · 10 days
23:00	84.3%	2.4 min late	6.6 min late	807 · 10 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

436 / 509 scheduled trips published at least one position across 7 service days (85.7%).

19:004 / 9 trips without a position55.6%
01:003 / 7 trips without a position57.1%
07:0014 / 37 trips without a position62.2%
06:007 / 19 trips without a position63.2%
00:002 / 7 trips without a position71.4%
20:004 / 14 trips without a position71.4%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 87 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 67 with a matched position · 3 with no matching position (to investigate) · 17 with an unknown outcome.

05:21– 06:04
Trip sto:63294632Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
05:57– 06:40
Trip sto:63295881Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:00– 06:39
Trip sto:63294633Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:30– 07:14
Trip sto:63295156Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:42– 07:23
Trip sto:63295882Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:00– 07:47
Trip sto:63294634Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:03– 07:46
Trip sto:63295157Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:16– 08:03
Trip sto:63295895Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:24– 08:07
Trip sto:63294635Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:33– 08:20
Trip sto:63290310Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:39– 08:22
Trip sto:63296386Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:48– 08:35
Trip sto:63296150Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown

· Open all evidence for this day