Map
FRPrevious measure: 93% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (33,418 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.
Every 30 to 31 min
Scheduled service and available evidence
Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026
0
Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 4 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 4.
1
1 of 398 trips with a usable feed window (0.3%) had no matching position.
These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.
397 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 398 scheduled trips
Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 4:14 p.m..
0 of 12 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.
0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.
Published position coverage: 397 / 398 (99.7%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.
Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.
Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 2:49 p.m.
Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.
Predictions against the timetable
93%
of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.
Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.
These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.
Calculated: Nov 4, 2026
2 partial-capture days not counted.
17 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.
Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.
Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 26 days counted.
2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.
0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 98 of 21,214 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.
0% of pairs (64) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.
| Time of day | Pairs checked | Bunched | Long gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.) | 2,094 | 1% (29) | 3% (62) |
| Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.) | 11,329 | 0% (2) | 0% (1) |
| Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.) | 4,299 | 1% (51) | 0% (1) |
| Evening (6 to 10 p.m.) | 3,492 | 0% (16) | 0% (0) |
Slowest: TERRY FOX 3C to TERRY FOX / MAPLE GROVE, 17.3 km/h actual against 17.3 km/h planned.
| From | To | Distance | Planned speed | Actual speed | Trips measured | Slow trips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TERRY FOX 3C | TERRY FOX / MAPLE GROVE | 2.3 km | 17.3 km/h | 17.3 km/h | 565 | 5% |
| EAGLESON C | TERRY FOX / MAPLE GROVE | 3.4 km | 21.5 km/h | 20.6 km/h | 101 | 1% |
| TUNNEY'S PASTURE B | LINCOLN FIELDS 1A | 5.7 km | 22.9 km/h | 22.5 km/h | 97 | 2% |
| COPE / DEFENCE | COPE / ROUNCEY | 510 m | 16.4 km/h | 23.1 km/h | 538 | 3% |
| LINCOLN FIELDS 1A | BAYSHORE B | 3.1 km | 19 km/h | 23.2 km/h | 100 | 2% |
| 417 RAMP / MOODIE (MOODIE A) | LINCOLN FIELDS 2A | 6.1 km | 25 km/h | 24.3 km/h | 100 | 1% |
| TERRY FOX / MAPLE GROVE | EAGLESON A | 3.2 km | 22.3 km/h | 25.9 km/h | 100 | 0% |
| TERRY FOX / MAPLE GROVE | COPE / PASEANA | 4.2 km | 24.5 km/h | 26.2 km/h | 28 | 0% |
A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.
Road work and event road closures the City of Ottawa has published, measured as near this route’s path. Near is not proof that the bus is detoured: check the operator’s own alerts for that.
Road work
417 W/B off ramp at Bayshore
Apr 29, 2026, 6:00 a.m. to Dec 31, 2026, 5:00 p.m.
417 W/B off ramp at Bayshore left-turn lane to Richmond closed off-peak due to construction, from April 29th to December 31. Cyclists and pedestrians not affected.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 17 m from the route
City record updated Aug 28, 2026, 1:32 p.m..
Road work
Richmond E/B at Bayshore
Sep 20, 2026, 6:00 a.m. to Nov 16, 2026, 11:00 p.m.
Richmond eastbound left-turn lanes closed at Bayshore due to construction. Staring Monday, 21 September until Monday, 16 November.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 5 m from the route
City record updated Sep 20, 2026, 5:56 a.m..
Road work
417 E/B between March and Moodie
Oct 27, 2026, 10:00 a.m. to Nov 6, 2026, 2:00 p.m.
417 eastbound HOV lane closed between March and Moodie due to construction, from October 27th to November 6th between 10:00am and 2:00pm.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Nov 3, 2026, 7:08 a.m..
Road work
CARLING E/B between Kichi Zibi Mikan on Ramp and EDGEWORTH
Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 a.m. to Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 p.m.
CARLING eastbound reduced to 1 lane between Kichi Zibi Mikan on Ramp and EDGEWORTH due to construction, from November 2nd to 13th between 9:30am and 3:00pm.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Oct 30, 2026, 11:40 a.m..
Road work
Kichi Zibi Mikan between ISLAND PARK and WOODROFFE
Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 a.m. to Nov 20, 2026, 3:00 p.m.
Kichi Zibi Mikan reduced to 1 lane in each direction between ISLAND PARK and WOODROFFE due to construction, from November 2nd to 20th between 9:30am and 3:00pm.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Oct 30, 2026, 9:28 a.m..
Road work
CORKSTOWN between MOODIE and MARCH
Oct 31, 2026, 9:30 a.m. to Nov 5, 2026, 7:00 p.m.
CORKSTOWN closed between MOODIE and MARCH due to construction, from November 3rd to 5th between 9:30am and 7:00pm.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Oct 31, 2026, 9:28 a.m..
Road work
Moodie S/B at 417 overpass
Nov 2, 2026, 6:00 a.m. to Nov 9, 2026, 2:30 p.m.
Moodie southbound reduced to 1 lane at 417 overpass due to construction, from November 4th to 9th between 6:00 and 2:30pm.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Nov 2, 2026, 1:12 p.m..
Road work
COPE between TERRY FOX and TEMPLEFORD
Nov 3, 2026, 7:00 a.m. to Nov 16, 2026, 5:00 p.m.
COPE closed between TERRY FOX and TEMPLEFORD due to construction, from November 6th to 16th. Follow the signed detour.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Nov 3, 2026, 6:56 a.m..
Road work
Hazeldean E/B between Kincardine and Edgewater
Dates not published
Hazeldean eastbound reduced to 1 lane between Kincardine and Edgewater due to construction.
The City marks this as affecting transit.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Sep 4, 2026, 8:40 a.m..
A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.
Source: City of Ottawa traffic events (road work and closures). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. The City says this list is best effort and may be incomplete. City of Ottawa traffic map ↗
2 partial-capture days not counted.
No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.
Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 398 trips we could check.
Verdict
96% of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable in a typical sampled hour; the lowest sampled hour is 83%.
Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.
| What | When | Measured | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| StrengthPredictions consistently close to timetable | 05:00 to 22:00 | 96% | Keep what works |
| StrengthObserved-position lower bound | All measured hours | 100% | Keep what works |
Route check
A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.
Bottom line
Provider predictions were usually close to schedule in this dated sample.
93 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 33,418 predictions checkedPrediction sample size: Larger sample
Based on 33,418 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.
Updated Nov 4, 2026, 3:32 p.m.
These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.
No repeated prediction-difference period has cleared the evidence threshold yet.
2 current notices affect this route
Prediction differences by stop
54 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (126 predictions over 21 days).
Open this stop48 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (126 predictions over 21 days).
Open this stopThese are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.
Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.
Schedule change check
This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.
Current published schedule began October 30, 2026
We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.
At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.
Service date checked: October 26, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed
Feed fingerprint: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad
Service date checked: November 2, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed
Feed fingerprint: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945
We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.
Still collecting: before has 17,681 arrivals over 14 days; after has 6,080 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.
Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.
We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.
The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.
Provisional results, published evidence
Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.
Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026
| Hour | On time | Median | 95th percentile | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | 90.0% | 0.4 min early | 12.2 min late | 80 · 10 days |
| 06:00 | 93.8% | 0.8 min late | 5.9 min late | 720 · 12 days |
| 07:00 | 87.3% | 1 min late | 6.8 min late | 1,388 · 14 days |
| 08:00 | 95.5% | 0.6 min late | 4.9 min late | 1,232 · 14 days |
| 09:00 | 89.0% | 0.7 min late | 5.9 min late | 1,195 · 14 days |
| 10:00 | 93.7% | 0.7 min late | 5.5 min late | 1,165 · 14 days |
| 11:00 | 96.6% | 1 min late | 4.7 min late | 1,175 · 14 days |
| 12:00 | 97.2% | 0.4 min late | 4.1 min late | 1,147 · 14 days |
| 13:00 | 98.6% | 0.3 min late | 2.9 min late | 1,176 · 14 days |
| 14:00 | 96.2% | 0.8 min late | 4.5 min late | 1,376 · 14 days |
| 15:00 | 95.8% | 0.4 min late | 4.9 min late | 1,166 · 14 days |
| 16:00 | 84.5% | 0.9 min late | 10.2 min late | 1,316 · 14 days |
| 17:00 | 83.2% | 1.3 min late | 9.6 min late | 1,199 · 14 days |
| 18:00 | 98.0% | 0 min late | 3.9 min late | 1,206 · 14 days |
| 19:00 | 94.0% | 0.1 min late | 5.2 min late | 1,010 · 14 days |
| 20:00 | 98.7% | 1.1 min late | 3.5 min late | 767 · 12 days |
| 21:00 | 99.1% | 0 min early | 3.1 min late | 464 · 12 days |
No repeated pattern below 70% is yet established across at least three service days.
397 / 398 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (99.7%).
This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.
Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.
Dated service
The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.
November 3, 2026 · 62 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified
In short: 62 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.