No 221 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Route 221: Blair ⇄ Cumberland

Every 30 to 59 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 40 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

40 with position · 0 to investigate · 0 excluded · 40 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 8:58 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 40 / 40 (100%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 7:39 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

No comparable percentage published

This service purpose needs a different method. A general percentage could give a misleading picture.

Predictions in the source: 4,179
Weekdays with evidence: 18
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

The general hourly comparison is not suitable for this service purpose. Source records remain available.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (1,102 pairs checked at stops).

1% of pairs (12) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	915	0% (0)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	187	0% (0)	6% (12)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: CARDINAL CREEK / OLD MONTRÉAL to TRIM 2A, 20.8 km/h actual against 22.4 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
CARDINAL CREEK / OLD MONTRÉAL	TRIM 2A	2.6 km	22.4 km/h	20.8 km/h	54	2%
PLACE D'ORLÉANS B	CARDINAL CREEK / OLD MONTRÉAL	6.1 km	28.1 km/h	25.8 km/h	34	9%
TRIM 2A	PLACE D'ORLÉANS - PARK & RIDE F	3.5 km	30.4 km/h	35.1 km/h	68	3%
CAMERON / OLD MONTRÉAL	CARDINAL CREEK / OLD MONTRÉAL	13.1 km	41.3 km/h	44.5 km/h	34	0%
BLAIR D	PLACE D'ORLÉANS B	8.7 km	37.1 km/h	50.6 km/h	51	0%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Provider predictions are about 2.6 min earlier than the timetable, 15:00.

16:00 has 75% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 99% the rest of the day.

Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 7 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 99.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 511 predictions, typically 1 min late
07:00: 99.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 560 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
08:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 60 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
09:00: not enough data
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 99% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 100 predictions, typically 2.6 min early
16:00: 74.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 430 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
17:00: 75.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 490 predictions, typically 1 min late
18:00: 85.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 170 predictions, typically 0.2 min late
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable	15:00	2.6 min early	Less running time, or holding points
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	16:00	75%	Operations, not the timetable
StrengthObserved-position lower bound	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions earlier than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 100; Hours affected 1; Spread 6.1 min; Median delay -2.6 min; Suggested running time change -2.6 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 16:00: Hour 16:00; On time 74.7%; Measured arrivals 430; Shortfall 24.3 pts; Route median on time 99%
Observed-position lower bound · All measured hours: Target 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 100%; Service days 5; Trips with a matching position 40; Scheduled trips 40

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 221 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

We need to know where this express route picks people up before we can rate it.

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 4,179 eligible provider predictions over 18 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 7:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

Problem times are not ranked because this service needs a purpose-specific test.

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

We do not yet have enough route-by-stop history to name a recurring problem stop. Rider reports are used as leads, not proof.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: No live cancellation answerOC Transpo’s live trip-update feed did not answer this check. That is a feed gap. It does not mean zero cancellations, and it is not proof of a cancellation. Open the evidence to see the schedule, retained explicit cancellation notices, and every labelled data gap.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 0 of 40 checked trips need a closer look0 of 40 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 40 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: Not enough evidence yet
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: October 26, 2026

Scheduled trips: 8
Distinct scheduled stops: 86
Distinct published paths: 5
Published service span: 6:27 a.m.–6:09 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Feed fingerprint: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

New schedule

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 8
Distinct scheduled stops: 86
Distinct published paths: 5
Published service span: 6:27 a.m.–6:09 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Feed fingerprint: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Ordinary on-time scoring does not fit this route’s service purpose. The schedule counts remain visible, but the result waits for the purpose-specific evidence described below.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Express / commuter route

Inbound performance must be checked at pickup points. Early outbound running after pickups are finished is not treated like early service on a regular route.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

Data behind this result

An ordinary on-time grade is not appropriate for this service without checking its purpose. The route check above explains the pickup, community-service or event evidence needed. You can still inspect the recorded trips and data gaps below.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Eligible predictions checked: 4,179
Weekdays with data: 18

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

40 / 40 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (100.0%).

06:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
15:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
16:000 / 10 trips without a position100.0%
17:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 8 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 8 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

06:27– 06:52
Trip 624030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:23 a.m. EST / 6:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:36– 07:20
Trip 20459030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:09 a.m. EST / 7:14 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:06– 07:50
Trip 10284030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:41 a.m. EST / 7:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:57– 08:22
Trip 30614030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:44 a.m. EST / 8:23 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:09– 15:24
Trip 9446030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:05 p.m. EST / 3:27 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:02– 16:29
Trip 28587030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:37 p.m. EST / 4:33 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
16:23– 17:08
Trip 13323030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:18 p.m. EST / 5:21 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
17:22– 18:09
Trip 10071030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:28 p.m. EST / 6:11 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.